Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)

I see it as more of an issue with the modeling.

A model can give you a 63.2% chance, but what does that mean given the relatively large margins of error on your inputs (the polls themselves) and depends on your model parameters being accurate (even a small error can swing a state or two)?

We give weather forecasters a hard time for doing a very hard job but they’ve got vastly superior data and modeling but still try to limit rain forecasts to the nearest 5% or 10% for many of the things we see here - they realize there’s only so much detail they can really offer down to that level but people try to read a lot more into the numbers than is prudent or realistic.

Right now, the modeling tells us that Harris probably has a slight edge but it’s far from certain and nowhere close to being comfortable. You can say “there’s a difference between 63% vs 55%” but this is the classic “accuracy vs precision” issue you should learn in school.