# Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 13, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665 "2024-08-13T17:10:05Z")\
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**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [August 14, 2024, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/19 "2024-08-14T17:06:43Z")

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> [@Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election/1004571/482):
>
> > [@Kamala Harris and the runup to the 2024 Presidential Election](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/kamala-harris-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-presidential-election/1004571/480):
> >
> > Nate Silver has Harris with a 83% chance of wining VA.
> 
> Weird, I wonder what polling data he has.

Silver, G. Elliot Morris of 538, and several other forecasters have a system built into their models where “no state is an island”. Essentially, trends in polled neighboring states have been found to bleed through the borders and indicate something about what’s happening in an unpolled state.

Virginia’s lean in Silver’s analysis today is certainly being influenced by recent state-level polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and likely Ohio. And it’s not necessarily going by raw red/blue status. Ohio _might_ today still poll as a comfortable Republican win, but if Trump is today getting (say) ~55% of Ohioans instead of (say) ~59% in recent past polling, that pro-Harris trend in Ohio will count some in scoring Virginia “bluer”.

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