It also has a lot to do with the recall weighting model, or rather the NYT not using it.
By that method a few states, like FL, are further in the R column, the national vote closer, and the EC advantage to Trump smaller.
While I understand that perspectives on partisan polling come down to individual political lean and worldview … I still want to share Simon Rosenberg’s pointed take on recent “red-wave” polling (Hopium Chronicles Substack, Sat 10/5).
Rosenberg goes on at length – the snippets below are the Readers’ Digest abridged version of the Cliffs Notes. Keep in mind this is from this past Saturday:
The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. It’s a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is …
Here is what was released in the past week:
- Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PA
- Cygnal - IA
- Insider Advantage - AZ, GA, NC, NV
- McLaughlin - FL
- Mitchell Comms - MI
- OnMessage - PA
- Patriot Polling - PA
- Remington - MI, MT, NV, PA, WI
- RMG - National, FL, MI, NC, TX
- Texas Gun Rights - TX
- Trafalgar - MI, PA, WI
- Victory Insights - FL
.,. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 … Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
In September 12 of the 24 polls of North Carolina were conducted by red wave pollsters. Check out the last 4 polls released in PA on 538. All are red wavers.
[It] is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the “toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy” of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election … the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.
Rosenberg also, at the same link, calls out this tweet string. The head of it (without Musk’s bit) is visible here without an X account:
The latest Iowa poll is rustling some right-wing jimmies: