Here is the article from August 28 that spells out the changes: How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump - ABC News
Key quote:
ETA: Ninja’ed
ETA2: The bigger concern from this, for me, is that the odd results before Biden dropped out didn’t cause Morris to reconsider his model and try to fix it. It took Biden dropping out for him to really dig in. With the model being a black box, that’s a bit concerning regarding it’s top-line accuracy.
On top of that, they weren’t upfront when they brought the model back they changed anything. It was only when they started getting criticism they even acknowledged it.
Thanks for the links, all.
The Semafor article strikes me as revealing a venal sin at worst – model adjustments over time were to be expected and, in fact, were built into 538’s model (e.g. dynamically weighing fundamentals vs polling). I’m curious HOW observers knew something was all that different about 538’s August model versus the June one. What was the specific tell?
I can agree that 538 would have been better served being more open about their model changes, but I don’t feel all that strongly about it.
Here is a thread from Nate Cohn. I think tweaks are fine, but this strikes me more as a large overhaul that requires at least acknowledgment and transparency.
What I’m missing most this year is the old 538’s team approach that seemed to check individual biases. For example, the old 538 might have a “Do you buy that: Shapiro was a missed opportunity?” in a podcast or article format and Nate might say “yes” and the other commentators might say “you’re beating that drum way too much Nate it’s not a big deal”. Whether using closed or open with methods, it was those exchanges and discussions that really broke the model away from being dominated by a single person’s punditry. Separate siloed competing modelers sniping at each other on social media doesn’t fill the same role at all.
538 is neutral and has not sold out to the GOP.
It is to laugh.
But she didnt. There was a bounce.
Nate Silver is a consultant for a firm that has venture backed funding by a guy who also invests in lots of other companies. Selling out to GOP seems like a massive stretch.
Harris got a bounce when she entered but she was losing ground in the polling from during the convention (when typically candidates go up). It appears that she is getting another bounce now post-debate.
Nope. He sold his company, and then needed more $$, so he now gets backed by Republicans. His numbers show it. PreGOP “Harris ahead” After the GOP $$ arrived “:Harris Behind!”. Follow the money.
While I’m happy to see 538’s model get into the 64% range, some of this must be due to Georgia going for Harris in 55% of their model runs – and I don’t see why this is the case, when not a single poll (okay, one unrated one) has shown her ahead there, ever.
I guess improvements in Florida and maybe N Carolina have given her a “regional” boost in their model? Or maybe recently-improved Pennsylvania (and maybe Michigan) have given her a “similar demographics” boost in Georgia? Seems sketchy. It seems to me she should only be winning maybe 40% of the runs in Georgia, and that would have to pull the national (EC) wins to 61% of their runs, if not fewer.
Actually, its much the same story in Arizona.
Man, 538 loves them some Quinnipiac! Which is why I’m so disappointed Quinnipiac only shows her up 1% in my home state of Wisconsin.
(But I’m very happy about the good news from Quinnipiac in PA.)
Or…maybe the half-point interest rate drop is the “special sauce” in their economic fundamentals adjustments…
trump and Harris are more or less dead even in Georgia. But there is a very large Black vote, which historically is underpolled. Stacey Abrams will bring them in. I think it is time to give her a cabinet post if Harris wins.
I hope you’re right. And, I agree!
From Nate Cohn’s newsletter today, after the new Times/Siena poll that shows a tie nationally, and Harris up four points in Pennsylvania:
“Almost exactly one year ago, I wrote that there were signs that Mr. Trump’s Electoral College advantage edge was fading, including in the 2022 midterm elections. In fact, today’s poll result is reminiscent of our polling ahead of the midterms, which found Republicans leading nationally but Democrats running strong in Pennsylvania and other battlegrounds. It was hard to believe given recent history — I didn’t believe it, and neither did others pollsters I spoke with — but it turned out to be right.”
Their fundamentals only model still leans Trump. This result is completely “adjusted polling” inferring from other states.
And yeah on the degree of EC advantage to Trump. Following that delta between likeliest tipping points and national has been one of my untreated obsessions.
Is she doing anything this year? I live in Georgia and consider myself pretty plugged in to political news and I haven’t seen anything from our about her this election cycle. It may just be that I’m not her target audience so I’m not frequenting the same places where she’s getting the word out. But during the midterms I was at least seeing YouTube ads from her.
I think the usual explanation is that her “convention bounce” happened when she actually won the nomination, not at the convention where nothing interesting happened.
This would be interesting if there’s substance to it. Allred head of Cruz 45-44 according to Morning Consult Poll:
A Democrat with a slim lead in Texas senate race?!?
Could be. Texas is now a pink state and turning purple. Mind you, not the way to bet.
Cruz is not very popular in Texas.
That skipping out to Mexico during the big freeze and power outage lin 2021, rankled a lot of voters. I am thinking a lot of Texans who are republicans will either skip voting for Cruz or vote 3rd party.
First spotted at an airport by a social media user who posted his photo, there was an immediate outcry overnight that a U.S. senator would travel out of the state amid the worst storm in many Texans’ lifetimes.
Cruz won re-election by only a couple points the last time he was up.
He’s deeply unpopular in Texas and it’s only his party affiliation that makes him competitive. By contrast, Governor Abbott and the Sr Texas Senator John Cornyn both won re-election the last time by double digits.
Trump himself is not exactly the most popular, either, but he’s got enough of a lead that the state really isn’t in play for POTUS. But quite possibly could mean things down-ballot, which is why having guys like Ted Cruz is no advantage for the GOP in the state.
ETA: you can tell Cruz is rattled by the sheer volume of TV ad buys. I watch local morning news, and the attack ads Cruz has commissioned are appalling. Unfortunately, they may also be effective to the right crowd. We’ll just have to see.
She is, and it’s especially clear if we look at the states she has a statistically significant lead in.
Electoral College 2024 Excluding States Where the Candidates are Statistically Tied
Starting from when Biden dropped out, Trump’s likely electoral vote count is clearly trending down. Harris’ count is slightly trending up. Neither has reached 270, so we’re still in the coin flip region. But the movements are both in good directions.
Yeah a bigger lead in states that she was already solidly winning is not so helpful. Show me instead that she is increasingly in aggregate winning in states which are individually statistically tied if you want to make a reassuring point about the trends.