# Polling: what does "likely to win" mean?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 24, 2016, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567 "2016-10-24T05:07:56Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\
**Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567/1 "2016-10-24T05:07:56Z")

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More specifically, how could a poll show Trump up by nearly 2 points nationally:

```auto

          Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Not sure
OVERALL 40.8% 42.6% 7.2% 3.3% 1.9% 4.2%

```

but in a footnote aaaaaaaaaaaaaall the way at the bottom of the page it says:

```auto

Likely To Win Clinton Trump Too Close
Overall 52% 20% 20%
Democrats 77% 7% 11%
Republicans 26% 37% 30%
Independents 49% 19% 21%

```

Are there really that many people who polled for Trump but then, in the same survey, admitted by a huge margin that Clinton would be more likely to win?

[http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/](http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/)

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**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\
**Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567/2 "2016-10-24T07:45:42Z")

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Sure.

1. Some have a grip on reality.
2. “Rigged.”

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**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\
**Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567/3 "2016-10-24T09:19:39Z")

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Misread question. NM

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-what-does-likely-to-win-mean/769567/4 "2016-10-24T20:59:35Z")

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I don’t see the conflict there. In the Ohio Senate race, I think that Portman is more likely to win, but I’m still voting Strickland. And I’m sure that plenty of people have similar views of the Presidential race.