# Polls and Thursday’s Debate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 19, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343 "2020-10-19T18:54:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/1 "2020-10-19T18:54:38Z")
Polls and Thursday’s Debate As we approach the final days of voting, monitoring the polls is making me more and more anxious as things ever increasingly favor Biden. I have to admit 2016 is haunting me, and I have a question about methodology for Nate Silver and others who aggregate polls. This close, and with the millions of people who have already voted, wouldn’t traditional historical data be insignificant? I have never read the methodology used but have read numerous Dopers whom I trust to understand the math and convey the meaning –and they all seem satisfied. But at this point can’t we just rely on averages of polls. I desperately want to believe 270 to win, and Real Clear Politics, and Five-Thirty-Eight, but all weekend long I have heard that the 2020 race is identical to where the 2016 race at this point in time. The only difference is that Biden is much less unfavorable than Clinton was. Barring something spectacular on Thursday, are things genuinely going well or do I have to stay awake and never change my socks through Election Day? (Okay, I am not that superstitious – but I very much want to change my anxiety into the eagerness I felt a week ago.) Speaking of Thursday’s debate- what is Trump going to hammer Biden about, what answers does Biden need to say in brief sentences, and what do you expect from Trump as far as demeanor and composure? I presume Hunter Biden e-mails will come up. Also Biden raising taxes and tanking the economy, it seems they have abandoned Biden being cozy with China. If we could script the debate how would it go? I know the topics have been released. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/2 "2020-10-20T00:01:26Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > Speaking of Thursday’s debate… > > I presume Hunter Biden e-mails will come up. Also Biden raising taxes and tanking the economy, it seems they have abandoned Biden being cozy with China. If we could script the debate how would it go? I know the topics have been released. I expect Trump to act much like he did in the first debate: interrupting, deflecting, and engaging in other un-Presidential behavior. As for the “Hunter Biden e-mails,” can somebody explain what this is all about? On a message board I watch, whose membership seems to be mostly made up of Trumpers, they’re convinced that Hunter Biden’s e-mails/laptop/New York Post story/Chinese connections/Ukranian business are now _the_ main issue in the election (not the corona virus, because that’s of course a hoax), and they will bring Joe Biden down. Occasionally, they’ll throw in things like “child porn on Hunter’s laptop,” and “Hunter’s a pedophile and so is Joe,” but while I don’t believe any of that, I’m confused by the e-mails/laptop/etc. stuff. If someone could summarize this briefly, I’d appreciate it. It would certainly help me understand what I’m seeing over there. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/3 "2020-10-20T01:07:42Z")
At least there will be a mute button. > **[Final Trump-Biden debate will feature 'mute' button after chaotic first clash](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/floridians-line-up-to-cast-ballots-as-early-voting-approaches-30-million-mark-idUSKBN2740FF?il=0)** > > The final debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden will feature a mute button to allow each candidate to speak uninterrupted, organizers said on Monday, looking to avoid the disruptions that marred the first matchup. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/4 "2020-10-20T02:31:58Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > As for the “Hunter Biden e-mails,” can somebody explain what this is all about? - Giuliani has met on several occasions with Russian intelligence assets to look for dirt on the Bidens. - A laptop surfaced under very strange circumstances, almost like it was planted. It is claimed that it is Hunter Biden’s laptop, with very little evidence. -Pictures of emails were published October 15 by Rudy Giuliani and The New York Post. As they are pictures, not the actual emails, there is no way to verify them. From here, let the conspiracy theory begin! ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/5 "2020-10-20T02:44:25Z")
The Hunter laptop lapdance story burst on the scene so suddenly, and imploded so equally suddenly, that I haven’t even followed it much since then. But am I right in seeing a headline that yet another laptop has been “discovered” under even stranger circumstances? This second one being the one that somebody said has pedo pix on it? I haven’t seen any more headlines about it (not that I’ve looked), but I think it got exactly zero traction. Is that right? Sorry, guys, that trick only works once (if at all). And did I see a headline that Director Of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe says there is NO evidence of Russian involvement in that? (I just quickly googled for some headlines I could cite, but only came up with a page of links to known right-wing shit, even including RT dot com.) This sounds reminiscent of the Comey Affair of October 2016 that may have played a part in Hillary Clinton’s loss. Sorry guys, that trick may have worked once, but it too won’t work twice. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/6 "2020-10-20T02:44:44Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > But at this point can’t we just rely on averages of polls. I desperately want to believe 270 to win, and Real Clear Politics, and Five-Thirty-Eight, but all weekend long I have heard that the 2020 race is identical to where the 2016 race at this point in time. The only difference is that Biden is much less unfavorable than Clinton was. This is not really true with respect to comparing 2016 to 2020, in at least 3 distinct ways. 1. The national averages are not really similar at all. I’ll use RCP for this, even though I don’t think they have a very robust method, because it’s probably good enough. Biden is running about 4 points better than HRC at this point (Biden is up 8.9 nationally, Clinton was up 5). 2. The trends for Clinton were very bad from here on out. She ended up about 3.5 in the RCP average, and won the popular vote by 2. 3. Swing states are a different story. RCP likes to use the “swing state average” to show that this is pretty similar to 2016. And in some cases it is (Wisconsin, Penn). But again it was all down-hill from here for Clinton - she ended up at +1.1 in the battlegrounds. Biden is currently at +4. I’ll add one additional difference, which is the Biden number. In Wisconsin, for example, Clinton’s final average had her receiving 46.8% of the vote. She actually got 46.6%. The error was that it had Trump receiving 40.3% but he actually got 47%. About two of that came from folks saying they would vote Johnson who didn’t, but obviously Trump did very well with the undecided voters. This year, by contrast, Biden has 49.7% in the RCP average. Clinton never got about 47% in 2016. So basically undecided and third-party voters can’t do it. There have to be Biden voters that change their mind. The low level of support for third parties and the low level of undecided voters make the possibly errors a bit smaller than in 2016. So, for Trump to win (which is certainly possible, of course), you need a similar polling error to 2016 _and_ something in the news between now and election day to move the national sentiment about 5 points away from Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/7 "2020-10-20T02:54:52Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > At least there will be a mute button. > > [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/floridians-line-up-to-cast-ballots-as-early-voting-approaches-30-million-mark-idUSKBN2740FF?il=0](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/floridians-line-up-to-cast-ballots-as-early-voting-approaches-30-million-mark-idUSKBN2740FF?il=0) We discussed this in a thread after the first debate. They can mute Trump’s microphone, but that won’t stop him from shouting down Biden (and the moderator) there on the stage, even if the viewing audience can’t hear him. (And they will hear him, muffled, as he is picked up by the other microphones around anyway.) That could be enough to distract Biden and rattle him to the point he can’t keep his stream of thought intact. I think the moderator should have a gavel. One of those bad-ass Klingon gavels that have amplifiers and shoot sparks. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/8 "2020-10-20T02:59:20Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > I expect Trump to act much like he did in the first debate: interrupting, deflecting, and engaging in other un-Presidential behavior. > > As for the “Hunter Biden e-mails,” can somebody explain what this is all about? On a message board I watch, whose membership seems to be mostly made up of Trumpers, they’re convinced that Hunter Biden’s e-mails/laptop/New York Post story/Chinese connections/Ukranian business are now _the_ main issue in the election (not the corona virus, because that’s of course a hoax), and they will bring Joe Biden down. > > Occasionally, they’ll throw in things like “child porn on Hunter’s laptop,” and “Hunter’s a pedophile and so is Joe,” but while I don’t believe any of that, I’m confused by the e-mails/laptop/etc. stuff. If someone could summarize this briefly, I’d appreciate it. It would certainly help me understand what I’m seeing over there. Yes, unfortunately I fear Trump wants primarily to demonstrate alpha male status – he surely doesn’t want to discuss his policies or accomplishments (since he has neither). As for the e-mails, I don’t know the details either but I was hoping some well informed and articulate Doper would provide a good, concise answer to the question however it is phrased. It has to be short enough to get it in before the inevitable interruption, but must also fully address the issue and provide a “last word on the subject” answer so at least the moderator can move on even if Trump himself harps upon the matter incessantly. > [@Aspenglow](#): > > At least there will be a mute button. I hope this makes some difference, and also that the Trump team has well coached him to shut the eff up more to keep him from scaring off fence sitters. We know he was trying to create an atmosphere that would cause Biden to st stut stutter. I assume he will be trying to do that again despite the limitation of the microphone. Biden and the moderator will hear him even if we can’t – he wants to appear tough and make Biden appear weak and will stoop to any means to do so. I hope the dead mic at least slows down Trumps dysfunction. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > -Pictures of emails were published October 15 by Rudy Giuliani and The New York Post. As they are pictures, not the actual emails, there is no way to verify them. > > From here, let the conspiracy theory begin! Well, with an unimpeachable moral character like Giuliani as a source what is to doubt??? It is a damn shame this nation has been reduced to these clowns using every means possible to retain power and avoid responsibility. Thank you for the explanation. > [@Senegoid](#): > > The Hunter laptop lapdance story burst on the scene so suddenly, and imploded so equally suddenly, that I haven’t even followed it much since then. > > But am I right in seeing a headline that yet another laptop has been “discovered” under even stranger circumstances? This second one being the one that somebody said has pedo pix on it? I haven’t seen any more headlines about it (not that I’ve looked), but I think it got exactly zero traction. Is that right? > > Sorry, guys, that trick only works once (if at all). > > And did I see a headline that Director Of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe says there is NO evidence of Russian involvement in that? (I just quickly googled for some headlines I could cite, but only came up with a page of links to known right-wing shit, even including RT dot com.) > > This sounds reminiscent of the Comey Affair of October 2016 that may have played a part in Hillary Clinton’s loss. > > Sorry guys, that trick may have worked once, but it too won’t work twice. So possibly: “The source of these photos is suspect at best and the DNI of your administration, John Ratcliffe says there is . . . .” might be an answer that shuts down the topic? ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/9 "2020-10-20T03:10:11Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > So, for Trump to win (which is certainly possible, of course), you need a similar polling error to 2016 _and_ something in the news between now and election day to move the national sentiment about 5 points away from Biden. Thank you! I knew someone smarter than me could help me understand this mess. I was believing this fully and completely last week, but over the weekend my knees started to quiver. Feel better now, and if things go well in the debate on Thursday I will go ahead and change my socks and turn my hat right side out. (Hey I was a blue collar guy from a previously firmly red state – some habits are hard to break!) There is nothing to worry about concerning internal polling is there? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/10 "2020-10-20T03:16:33Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > There is nothing to worry about concerning internal polling is there? There is no way to know - it’s internal. 🙂 More seriously, campaigns only release internal polling if they want to. And there reasons are varied. As an example, one of Biden’s campaign staff was quoted as saying “we don’t think Biden is up by 10”. Now, did they say that because they have “scary internal numbers”, or did they say that so folks don’t think “oh, he’s up 10 I don’t need to vote”? It’s impossible to know. It’s as pointless as trying to read into things like where the candidate is campaigning. “Oh no, Biden is in PA, he must think it’s at risk!” “Oh boy, Harris is in FL, they must think they can win it”. The reality is they don’t really know that much more than we do. I do feel a bit better that there seems to be lots of talk but almost no actual evidence in the “Hunter Biden” e-mail stash (I put it in quotes since it hasn’t even been confirmed that it’s his). If what the NY Post put out last week was the most damaging stuff, then I don’t see much to worry about. My guess is that Rudy is just flapping his gums about the other stuff, trying to make it seem bigger than it really is, but who really knows. It smells like a steaming pile of crap, but I can imagine Biden’s camp is a bit nervous since Hunter truly is (was?) a piece of work for a long time so who knows what crap he might have on a rogue laptop. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/11 "2020-10-20T03:18:35Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > We discussed this in a thread after the first debate. They can mute Trump’s microphone, but that won’t stop him from shouting down Biden (and the moderator) there on the stage, even if the viewing audience can’t hear him. (And they will hear him, muffled, as he is picked up by the other microphones around anyway.) That could be enough to distract Biden and rattle him to the point he can’t keep his stream of thought intact. > > I think the moderator should have a gavel. One of those bad-ass Klingon gavels that have amplifiers and shoot sparks. In one of those threads I suggested Biden’s Secret Service detail warn Trump that if he continually interrupts or behaves aggressively toward their primary they will treat it as a credible threat and act accordingly. Knowing what a horses ass Trump is – I suspect his own detail will warn him: “You better not make them think you are attacking their guy, they will taser you”. It might give Trump pause before he stalks Biden like he did to Clinton even if he does continue to interrupt and behave un-presidential. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/12 "2020-10-20T03:25:38Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > There is no way to know - it’s internal. 🙂 I am doing everything I can to be sure everyone gets to vote just like I did. I just hope when all is said and done Biden has won at least six more states than he needs for the 270 and all of them by a significant margin that a few contested ballots will not affect. Just to discourage Trump from even trying to overturn a single one of them. I don’t care if he never concedes as long as he loses bigly and wanders away in January. > [@Jas09](#): > > My guess is that Rudy is just flapping his gums about the other stuff, trying to make it seem bigger than it really is, but who really knows. It smells like a steaming pile of crap, but I can imagine Biden’s camp is a bit nervous since Hunter truly is (was?) a piece of work for a long time so who knows what crap he might have on a rogue laptop. This whole thing sounds like a poorly run confidence scheme. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/13 "2020-10-20T03:33:53Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > - Giuliani has met on several occasions with Russian intelligence assets to look for dirt on the Bidens. > - A laptop surfaced under very strange circumstances, almost like it was planted. It is claimed that it is Hunter Biden’s laptop, with very little evidence. > > -Pictures of emails were published October 15 by Rudy Giuliani and The New York Post. As they are pictures, not the actual emails, there is no way to verify them. > > From here, let the conspiracy theory begin! Thanks for that. It helps a little to understand the mindset of those Trumpers who are posting that stuff. They’re a strange group, but perhaps not. Anything that helps Trump, no matter how unethical or untrue, is just fine by them. This sounds like both, in a last desperate conspiratorial gasp to discredit Biden. I find it interesting that you mention that the laptop in question was found “almost like it was planted,” and there is little evidence connecting it to Hunter Biden. I have no reason to doubt you, and I don’t doubt you; but the way these Trumpers have glommed onto “the laptop with the incriminating evidence is Hunter’s” as an established fact, not to be questioned, is frightening. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/14 "2020-10-20T03:41:05Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > I find it interesting that you mention that the laptop in question was found “almost like it was planted,” and there is little evidence connecting it to Hunter Biden. I have no reason to doubt you, and I don’t doubt you; but the way these Trumpers have glommed onto “the laptop with the incriminating evidence is Hunter’s” as an established fact, not to be questioned, is frightening. Several of my friends on Facebook have reposted this summary of the situation. There’s certainly some snark in here, and probably a little exaggeration, but from what I’ve read about the story, the facts, as laid out in this, are more or less accurate: > [@](#): > > So just so I have the latest email scandal straight: > > Hunter Biden, who lives in Los Angeles, decides to fly 3000 miles across country to drop off 3 MacBook Pros at a computer repair shop run by a blind guy who charges the insanely low price of $85 for data recovery. Hunter gets off the plane and drunk-drives to the repair shop in Wilmington desperate for service, because everyone knows there are no computer repair shops anywhere in LA. > > He staggers into the shop reeking of booze, drops them off, signs a contract for repair and then totally disappears, because he’s so close to his easily-reachable dad that his dad is responsible for Hunter, but so not-close that his dad is unable to relay a message to Hunter that his computers are ready for pickup. > > The repair shop owner recovers the data but instead of doing what data recovery people normally do when computers are abandoned, which is wipe the data clean and sell the hardware, he reads literally thousands of Hunter’s _private_ emails (half of which are probably the “Reply All” chains we hate) but a few of those thousands of emails may mention a possible meeting arrangement between his dad and a Ukrainian guy. (For what? it’s not mentioned.) > > Repair Shop Guy is so alarmed that he contacts the FBI. The FBI arranges to pick up the hard drives, but Repair Shop Guy chooses to take the completely normal step of copying those drives. Once he realizes the FBI isn’t doing anything with them (Hmmm… wonder why) , he calls up the most credible ex-Mayor on Earth and hands him their contents. > > That totally credible ex-Mayor is also so alarmed by these emails that instead of immediately going public or talking to Barr’s DOJ, he sits on them for months and then chooses to release them 3 weeks before the election. > > The responsible media then asks to independently verify their validity through a forensic analysis of the emails’ metadata, but said ex-Mayor does what all normal people trying to prove facts and truth do, and chooses to totally ignore all of these requests. > > Is that where we are now? ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/15 "2020-10-20T04:06:41Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Is that where we are now? That is the most complete and understandable overview of the matter I have seen. How do you condense that to a thirty second answer with Trump screaming “LOCK HIM UP!!” in your ear? Something like: “I knew you would bring up this lame attempt to frame my son with your highly questionable material. I know it is all nonsense as do the American people. There is nothing there and you are using this ‘Trumped-up’ distraction to draw attention away from your failed leadership.” If it was me, I would say: “put up or shut-up Mr. President, you have been called – file charges or shut up! There are no charges or even any investigation because Mr. Giuliani would be the one facing charges for trying to perpetrate a fraud.” But I am far too impulsive. How does Biden forcefully dismiss this without making it a bigger story. One of the moments I liked from the first debate was when Biden said I will abide by the election results . . . and so will he (with a thumb pointed at Trump). He spoke for Trump like he was an underage brat who would not answer a question from an adult. I hope if this e-mail thing does come up in the debate, Biden can dismiss it without stooping to Trump like behavior. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/16 "2020-10-20T04:15:19Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > That is the most complete and understandable overview of the matter I have seen. I agree. My thanks go to **kenobi\_65** for that. It sounds a little “out there,” but if spreading such a narrative is what it takes for Trumpers to cast dirt on Joe Biden, they’ll run with it. From what I’ve seen so far, they are. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/17 "2020-10-20T04:18:31Z")
> [@Temporary\_Name](#): > > I have to admit 2016 is haunting me, and I have a question about methodology for Nate Silver and others who aggregate polls. > > This close, and with the millions of people who have already voted, wouldn’t traditional historical data be insignificant? I have never read the methodology used but have read numerous Dopers whom I trust to understand the math and convey the meaning –and they all seem satisfied. But at this point can’t we just rely on averages of polls. I desperately want to believe 270 to win, and Real Clear Politics, and Five-Thirty-Eight, but all weekend long I have heard that the 2020 race is identical to where the 2016 race at this point in time. The only difference is that Biden is much less unfavorable than Clinton was. [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) addressed precisely this question in their Saturday mailbag: > **[ElectoralVote](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct17.html#item-1)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. > [@](#): > > **Q:** I have read a lot of articles about the current polling, many of which make the point that just about everyone thought Hillary Clinton was almost certain to win in 2016 based on the numbers. How would you compare the polling now, and the numbers at the same point in the 2016 race? **S.B., Hood River, OR** > > **A:** We’re going to point out four important differences: > > **1. National Polling:** At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s lead in national polling was about 3.5 points. Joe Biden’s lead is about 9 points. Everyone knows that the president is not chosen by the popular vote, but that 5-6 point difference is enormous, and is more than the Republicans’ Electoral College advantage can overcome. > > **2. Firmness of Support:** Nearly every day, we get multiple messages pointing out that at this point in 2016, [we had](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct17.html) Hillary Clinton with a near-identical number of electoral votes as we have Joe Biden with right now. While that is true, it overlooks that the tally at the top of the page is our best guess about what would happen if the election were held on that day. The much more important numbers are found at the top right, where we break down exactly how firm a candidate’s support really is. On this day in 2016, Hillary Clinton had 256 “safe” EVs (184 “strongly Dem,” 72 “likely Dem”). Joe Biden currently has 290 “safe” EVs (217 “strongly Dem,” 73 “likely Dem”). One of those totals is on the magic side of the line, and the other is not. > > **3. Undecideds:** At this point in 2016, about 10% of voters were undecided. Right now, only about 5% of voters are undecided. That means there is much less room for movement in the polls. > > **4. October Surprise:** The great majority of undecided voters broke for Donald Trump, and they largely did so because of James Comey’s October Surprise, which came on October 28. It is hard to imagine that anything so damaging to Joe Biden is coming down the pike in the next week or two. And even if it does, there are currently fewer undecideds than in 2016 (as noted), and considerably more early votes have already been banked. > > A Biden victory is not guaranteed, obviously. But the argument that Biden 2020 is in the same position Clinton 2016 was, at this point in the race, simply does not hold water. And keep in mind The _New York Times_[tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden) we mentioned last week, which calculates what would happen if the polls were as far off in 2020 as in 2016. Even with that adjustment, Joe Biden wins with 319 EVs. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/18 "2020-10-20T04:20:07Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > As for the “Hunter Biden e-mails,” can somebody explain what this is all about? On a message board I watch, whose membership seems to be mostly made up of Trumpers, they’re convinced that Hunter Biden’s e-mails/laptop/New York Post story/Chinese connections/Ukranian business are now _the_ main issue in the election (not the corona virus, because that’s of course a hoax), and they will bring Joe Biden down. Re the laptop - here’s a link to a Twitter feed, showing the signature from the Delaware computer shop next to a confirmed signature by Hunter Biden on a UK corporate document: [There’s some definite differences, and I don’t think they were from the same person. though I’m not competent to evaluate them professionally. ](https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1318384991525502977?s=20) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/19 "2020-10-20T04:36:24Z")
**@Temporary_Name** , you could also check out the historical graphs on [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com). > **[Electoral College Graphs](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html)** > > Track the election with a red/blue map of the US updated daily using the latest state polls. They show the poll tracking for the past four elections by electoral vote, both including states where the aggregate of polls for each state are within the margin of error, and excluding states where the aggregate is within the margin of error. The significance of excluding states where the aggegate is within the margin of error is that it recognises that the 2016 election was decided by states within the margin of error that all broke for Trump, generally within the margin of error. Just looking at the states where the aggregate is outside the margin of error gives a clearer impression of how things may go. And if you look at the 2016 situation, excluding states within the margin of error, Clinton was steadily dropping throughout October, and never had over 270 states over the margin of error. And after the Comey announcement, she plummets. That’s not what the aggregate of states excluding the margin of error is showing this time. Biden is above 270 in that aggregate, which suggests that even if the margin of error breaks in Trump’s favour again, Trump has a much harder situation than Biden. When you look at the charts for all four of the last elections, focussing just on states outside the margin of error, the closest analogue is 2008 when it was Obama and some old white guy steadily outpolling McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343/20 "2020-10-20T04:52:23Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) addressed precisely this question in their Saturday mailbag: > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > **@Temporary_Name** , you could also check out the historical graphs on [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com). Thank you both, I will be checking this site out and spending lots of time learning all the ins and outs. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-and-thursday-s-debate/923343.md?page=2)