# Polls have Kerry and Bush in a dead heat, but...

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [October 22, 2004, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675 "2004-10-22T20:54:32Z")\
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**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2004, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675/10 "2004-10-23T17:20:38Z")

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> [@Sam Stone](#):
>
> It’s not a dead heat. Here’s a [summary of the latest polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html). Bush has a small lead.
> 
> The battleground states are what it’s all about right now, though. And that’s a much more difficult prediction, because the polls are all over the map. Kerry could very easily lose the popular vote this time and win the electoral college.
> 
> My prediction: If that happens, all the people who spent the last four years screaming about how outdated the electoral college is will suddenly become very quiet about it.

You automatically have to add a few points to Kerry for the national polls. They don’t account for new voters, for cell phones or for overseas votes. That means they are missing almost the entire youth vote and an awful lot of the absentee votes from Americans abroad are going to Kerry. My father is a 22 year State Department dip now doing a tour in Brazil. He says the sentiment abroad among Americans- at least among the civilians- is almost violently anti-Bush…they have to reap the consequences of Bush’s anti-international dick waving, after all. The absentee vote from the military has always gone more or less for the Pub, but there’s a lot of resentment in the miltary right now, and more minorities as well. That military vote is no longer as solid for the Pubs as it once was. They’ll still probably win a majority of it but it’s not a blow out any more.

Kerry is leading today at [Electoral-Vote.com](http://Electoral-Vote.com), btw.

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