# Polls have Kerry and Bush in a dead heat, but...

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675>\
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\
**Created:** [October 22, 2004, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675 "2004-10-22T20:54:32Z")\
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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [October 23, 2004, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polls-have-kerry-and-bush-in-a-dead-heat-but/270675/11 "2004-10-23T17:24:08Z")

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Don’t watch the numbers, Kerry vs. Bush. Watch Bush vs. Bush. If Bush goes over 50% in the polls, he should win. If he can’t cross 48%, he will lose. Undecideds break for the challenger by more than 5 to 1. The story is going to be the turnout. High turnouts historically favor Democrats, and this turnout should be historic.

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