# Polycarp did you forget to take you pills? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [December 3, 2003, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640 "2003-12-03T03:54:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![SkipMagic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skipmagic/32/20706_2.png) [@SkipMagic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SkipMagic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/381 "2003-12-05T16:13:29Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Left Hand of Dorkness \* > \*\*Simple: the more of our guesses about the universe we’d have to throw out, the less likely the scenario is. > > **Proposition A** : The messiah walks amongst us. > > What do we have to toss? We have to toss the idea that there’s no omnipotent being in the universe who meddles in human affairs. > > **Proposition B** : The messiah walks amongst us, and that dude with the flashing text on his website is the messiah. > > What do we have to toss? We have to toss the idea that there’s no omnipotent being in the universe who meddles in human affairs, AND the idea that an omnipotent being would know better than to use flashing text on His website. > > Proposition B is therefore less likely, even though proposition A also requires us to reorganize our thoughts about the universe. > > It’s sort of a reverse Occam’s razor.\*\* All you have to do is toss “The messiah walks amongst us” from both assertions. The latter part of B only follows if you accept the former; if you toss the former, than the latter is automatically tossed. **Homebrew** : 😛 ---
**Author:** ![SkipMagic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skipmagic/32/20706_2.png) [@SkipMagic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SkipMagic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/382 "2003-12-05T16:14:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jayjay \* > \*\*You could ask **Auntie Em** to spank him, but I somehow doubt that would be considered punishment… \*\* I’ll never tell… 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/383 "2003-12-05T16:15:26Z")
**LHoD** : it seems to me that throwing out the idea that there is no omnipotent being is automatically equivalent to throwing out _all_ physical laws (since an omnipotent being is not bound by those laws) and once you’ve done that you still have equal probabilities for anything that deity may hypothetically do. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/384 "2003-12-05T16:23:37Z")
> [@](#): > > **DtC** : What I’m saying is that there is no way to determine if they have different probabilities. Wait! If someone is claiming an actual messiah, as mentioned pages ago, that is falsifiable. Maybe? It depends on what is claimed by the one fulfilling the role of the messiah, I guess. If there are no special divine powers, then I we could run into the multiple messiah conundrum I quoted from that particular sermon I found on the internet, and depicted in Monty Python’s _Life of Brian_. “Messiahs” on the internet are pretty common. How can a smart religious shopper like myself tell the difference, barring miraculous events? ---
**Author:** ![IzzyR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/2acd7d/32.png) [@IzzyR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IzzyR)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/385 "2003-12-05T16:24:54Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Diogenes the Cynic \* > I’m only talking about calculating different probabilities for events which are _prima facia_ impossible (“impossible” being defined as that which violates the laws of physics, such as they are) or if you’d rather, different probabilities for hypothetical supernatural events. I understand that, but what difference does it make? My point, again, is that the fact that you can’t calculate a number does not mean that you can’t have a good idea of relative probability. This still holds. LHoD makes a good point about the extent to which we’d have to reorder our assumptions. But beyond this, there is also room for intuitive judgment. If I suggested that the janitor in my building is God, and that he sustains the world by picking at his earwax, that is just a plain old wacky notion, and I would think even a lot of atheists would think it to be less likely than the mere possibility that a God exists altogether. In fact, it’s a less likely than the notion that Polycarp has identified the second incarnation of Christ through a website, for that matter. Which in turn is itself less likely than a lot of other unlikely things. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/386 "2003-12-05T16:25:56Z")
**DtC** , I figure an omnipotent being can’t change the laws of aesthetics – but as I said, I think we agree on the specific, even if I disagree with you on the general (i.e., I think different propositions may require a greater or lesser degree of reorganizing our understanding of the cosmos, and are therefore more or less irrational). Daniel ---
**Author:** ![DaveW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9d8465/32.png) [@DaveW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaveW)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/387 "2003-12-05T16:28:47Z")
Towards assigning probabilities to impossible things: I am reminded of a many-years-old Scientific American article about very large (and very small) numbers. They reported that someone had calculated the probability that a mouse could survive on the Sun for a week at 10[sup]-30[/sup]. They also reported that someone else had calculated that the probability that a person might suddenly find that they’d been inexplicably teleported to Mars are 10[sup]-50[/sup] per year. The above is, admittedly, based upon what I remember of the article. _If_ I’m remembering it correctly, however, it seemed like these particular cases were “famous” enough that it ought to be fairly easy for someone in the field to find the original articles from which they came, and thus learn about the methodology and assumptions used to arrive at the results, which are assuredly non-zero and differing probabilities for two events which most people would consider “impossible.” They may also offer hints as to how one might _reasonably_ assign probabilities to even supernatural events. Don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/388 "2003-12-05T16:35:04Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by IzzyR \* > \*\*I understand that, but what difference does it make? My point, again, is that the fact that you can’t calculate a number does not mean that you can’t have a good idea of relative probability. This still holds. > > LHoD makes a good point about the extent to which we’d have to reorder our assumptions. But beyond this, there is also room for intuitive judgment. If I suggested that the janitor in my building is God, and that he sustains the world by picking at his earwax, that is just a plain old wacky notion, and I would think even a lot of atheists would think it to be less likely than the mere possibility that a God exists altogether. In fact, it’s a less likely than the notion that Polycarp has identified the second incarnation of Christ through a website, for that matter. Which in turn is itself less likely than a lot of other unlikely things. \*\* I’m sorry, **Izzy** but I think you’re just making assertions based on personal feelings. You’re not providing an empirical way to calculate differences in probabilities. I personally see no intuitive difference in the probability of your scenarios. The way I see it, once you swallow “God” then God as a janitor is straining at gnats. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/389 "2003-12-05T16:39:56Z")
I’m also wondering whether **Polycarp** is reading this thread – he’s been on the boards recently. You out there, man? Daniel ---
**Author:** ![matt\_mcl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ab992/32.png) [@matt\_mcl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/matt_mcl)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/390 "2003-12-05T16:41:08Z")
> [@](#): > > My biggest problem with Poly’s religion (I hesitate to call it christianity) is that it appears to be a hodge-podge of bits and pieces of philosophy, mysticism, Old and New Testament, and whatever suits his fancy at the time. He continually quotes from the bible to reinforce a point he’s making, but then when someone else points to a biblical passage, he either says that wasn’t what the bible actually meant or he says he’s not a “bible” christian, but a “Jesus” christian. It’s getting increasingly hard to follow. Maybe he’s just a “Polyist”? I don’t see why you have a problem with this. The only thing I can see that sounds prima facie odd is this part about quoting the Bible but not believing all of it. But hell, I quote John Ralston Saul to make points without believing everything the dude ever wrote. Ordinarily we don’t have a problem with that. I guess you’re going to have to deal with the notion that there are Christians out there with beliefs different from those of any church and from the literal truth of the revealed Bible. Which frankly seems a little late in the day to be coming to that realization. ---
**Author:** ![Homebrew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@Homebrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Homebrew)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/391 "2003-12-05T16:41:09Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Beagle \* > \*\*Wait! If someone is claiming an actual messiah, as mentioned pages ago, that is falsifiable. Maybe?B] How is it falsifiable before the fellow dies? As long as he’s still alive, he might still fulfill prophecy. Messiah doesn’t necessarily mean “Divine” just that he has a divine role or purpose to fulfill. The idea that Jesus was Divine is what caused Christianity to break with Judiasm; not the idea that he was a Messiah. ---
**Author:** ![matt\_mcl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ab992/32.png) [@matt\_mcl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/matt_mcl)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/392 "2003-12-05T16:43:36Z")
“Theomania: Belief that one is God. When treating this condition, the responsible psychiatrist should ensure that it does not have a basis in fact. For this purpose crucifixion is contraindicated, as it takes three days to obtain a result, and in case of a negative result the patient’s condition will be terminal.” - Peter Bowler, _The Superior Person’s Book of Words_ ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/393 "2003-12-05T16:43:59Z")
Maybe **Poly** was raptured… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/394 "2003-12-05T16:48:05Z")
**jayjay** , you guys are great and all, don’t get me wrong – but if I’m ever raptured, I hope to hell I’ve got better things to do than to [keep posting on the Straight Dope](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=225589&pagenumber=2). Daniel ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/395 "2003-12-05T16:48:45Z")
So, debating probabilities is how folks around here kill time waiting for Poly to return and admit that he is in cahoots with the distributor of the movie Moriah mentioned and this is a cheap publicity stunt? Stupid question, I suppose. _Of course_ that’s how people here kill time. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Kalhoun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/3bc359/32.png) [@Kalhoun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kalhoun)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/396 "2003-12-05T16:49:49Z")
Thanks for the help with the quote tags. I shall give it a go at my earliest opportunity. I agree that Poly’s take on the messiah isn’t necessarily an indicator of his mind coming unglued, but it does strike me as something a religious zealot or cult leader might say. I also find it arrogant that he would be the only one who is getting the Jesus Vibe from this guy’s website (if, in fact, there WAS a website… mwahahaha ;)). I just don’t see why he would get the sneak preview before, say, the POPE, Jerry Falwell, or the Rev. Jesse Jackson. There are lots of people who claim to be devoted to god, so what makes Poly so special? ---
**Author:** ![Homebrew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@Homebrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Homebrew)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/397 "2003-12-05T16:51:49Z")
Well Jesus V1.0 was rejected by the Leaders and went to the fishermen. Perhaps Version 2 has also been rejected by the Pope, Falwell and Jackson. ---
**Author:** ![MrVisible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@MrVisible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrVisible)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/398 "2003-12-05T16:53:18Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by dropzone \* > So, debating probabilities is how folks around here kill time waiting for Poly to return and admit that he is in cahoots with the distributor of the movie Moriah mentioned and this is a cheap publicity stunt? > > Stupid question, I suppose. _Of course_ that’s how people here kill time. 😉 Yep. Just killin’ time, waiting for the second coming. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/399 "2003-12-05T16:56:24Z")
What makes the Pope, Jerry Falwell, or Jesse Jackson so special? As an outsider looking into the House of Christians, I think that if there really were a Rapture, an awful lot of people would be _shocked! Shocked I say!_ that they themselves didn’t disappear…and even more shocked at who did. ---
**Author:** ![SkipMagic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skipmagic/32/20706_2.png) [@SkipMagic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SkipMagic)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640/400 "2003-12-05T17:12:19Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jayjay \* > \*\*As an outsider looking into the House of Christians, I think that if there really were a Rapture, an awful lot of people would be _shocked! Shocked I say!_ that they themselves didn’t disappear…and even more shocked at who did. \*\* What if you’re with a vampire in an amusement park’s “House of Mirrors”? I mean, how would you _know_ he didn’t get raptured? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polycarp-did-you-forget-to-take-you-pills/216640.md?page=21)