[Moderating]
I don’t want to prevent discussion of that, because it does need to be discussed. But it’s getting a bit far afield of the topic of this thread.
My thought would be that Polynesian explorers would pack enough for a trip out X miles, and enough to turn around and come back. The other point was that from what we know of their explorations and navigation, they could pick up clues - stars, wave patterns and shore birds are mentioned - that would tell them if they were within 100 miles or more of land. So it was much less hit or miss. Then if they found something, they would report back and then any colonial expedition would follow. So my wild guess is they sent out progressive explorations that returned and said “pack more supplies next time”. (Not to minimize the risk of sailing the Pacific in a canoe, even a big one)
The Easter Islanders, allegedly, know where they were going, so most like someone had at least scouted the place before?
Quick hijack: Columbus subscribed to the wrong Greek theory of a smaller diameter of the earth, then used Marco Polo’s writings to guess how far he went East. He also fudged the numbers by picking the smaller interpretation of the measurements mentioned, and maybe exaggerated Polo’s distance, to arrive at the thought that the Indies (Indonesia aka “Indies” or the Spice Islands, as well as China) were only 3,000 miles away. Some think he had knowledge of Basque fishermen and their secret fishing grounds off the coast of Newfoundland, and so fixated that must be Asia and made the numbers fit. Most educated scholars in the courts of Europe knew the other, correct diameter estimate and said he was wrong, it was over 15,000 miles. To Columbus it had to be the Indies he found, since the whole impetus of exploration was a lucrative better route to the source of spices.
Of course, by the time of the Pilgrims it was pretty well established what the coast was. Allegedly due to bad weather, the Pilgrims ended up in New England instead their target, near more hospitable Virginia.
Even if that’s true, someone found it by luck the first time and that someone was very far from home.
There are stories that Polynesians sent out scouts but there are also stories that it was a banished ruler and clan that stumbled upon it. According to island legend that first group was led by Hotu-Matua and his wife Vakai-a-hiva after Hotu-Matua had lost a succession battle with his brother.
Where’s that quote from?
Jonathon Cardy - I’ve already closed the pages I had open. Sorry, but really at this point it’s all speculation anyway.
ETA: There’s also this.
Easter Island is about 1200 miles from Pitcairn. Maybe earlier explorers found it but the climate was unacceptable, or maybe you’re right, they got lucky, but possibly knew that explorers had found nothing going straight east, so more southerly was the appropriate direction. Unclear if they stopped anywhere between Cook Islands and Easter Island, but it would not be surprising if they were allowed to stop and re-supply along the way - just not welcome to stay.
Or both, also a general feeling that they’ll either return rich or not at all, ethics be damned.
The other interesting thing about the Neutronium 'naded Polynesians was their willingness to settle on lesser islands like Henderson and thus rely on trade to sustain them.
(As I remember) Diamond (in Collapse) talked about how one day the supply ships just didn’t show up. Without Mangareva’s timber to build canoes for fishing or escape, and lacking essential raw materials, the isolated population on Henderson Island could no longer support itself and eventually died out or vanished.