# Poorest nation that could possibly pull off a successful nuclear-weapons program **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 13, 2019, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371 "2019-11-13T16:53:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/1 "2019-11-13T16:53:20Z")
North Korea is one of the poorest in the world, and yet still managed to get to the extent of 200-kiloton thermonuclear two-stage weapons. (North Korea, though, benefits from having coastlines and not being a landlocked nation that might be successfully blockaded.) Assuming that the willpower is no problem - a government is willing to let any amount of citizenry starve, and risk any sanctions - what is the poorest (or not necessarily _poor_, but just geopolitically weak) nation that could pull off something like this? Seychelles? Maldives? Equatorial Guinea? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/2 "2019-11-13T17:10:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > North Korea is one of the poorest in the world, and yet still managed to get to the extent of 200-kiloton thermonuclear two-stage weapons. (North Korea, though, benefits from having coastlines and not being a landlocked nation that might be successfully blockaded.) > Assuming that the willpower is no problem - a government is willing to let any amount of citizenry starve, and risk any sanctions - what is the poorest (or not necessarily _poor_, but just geopolitically weak) nation that could pull off something like this? Seychelles? Maldives? Equatorial Guinea? Going to be hard to beat North Korea, though they had pretty extensive help, to the point that most of their weapons grade material probably came from China, as well as designs and parts (plus all the stuff they got from Russia as well). And they are dirt poor as a nation. I don’t think there are any limits to how poor you are as a country wrt a nuclear program if you are getting outside help. If you aren’t, then it’s going to depend on what your alliances and trade connections are, as if anyone finds out you are going to be in a world of hurt economically and politically, so better have good alliances. If you do, then it gets back to the first point…how much help are your allies giving you? ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/3 "2019-11-13T17:23:25Z")
Making a working nuclear device is just the first step. Then come all these extra costs, how much of these are required: 1. Will they be designed to contain modern safety devices and explosives to limit yields in case of accidents (fire, dropping, crushing, ESD)? 2. What kind of reliability do the nuclear weapons need? 30% or 95%? 3. Delivery systems. How far do the delivery systems need to send this nuclear weapon? A few hundred miles: cheap. Many thousands of miles: expensive. Do they need to be able to penetrate anti ballistic missile systems or anti-aircraft systems? 4. Do you provide robust security for all stages of the nuclear weapons life-cycle to protect against acts of domestic or international terrorism? Serious security that never ends is serious expensive. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/4 "2019-11-13T17:48:15Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Going to be hard to beat North Korea, though they had pretty extensive help, to the point that most of their weapons grade material probably came from China, as well as designs and parts (plus all the stuff they got from Russia as well). And they are dirt poor as a nation. > > I don’t think there are any limits to how poor you are as a country wrt a nuclear program if you are getting outside help. If you aren’t, then it’s going to depend on what your alliances and trade connections are, as if anyone finds out you are going to be in a world of hurt economically and politically, so better have good alliances. If you do, then it gets back to the first point…how much help are your allies giving you? One possible answer would be to use mid-1960’s Israel as a baseline. Google says GDP in 1965 was 3.7 billion USD, which I think is unconverted for inflation. (Search criteria: Israel GDP 1965) Adjusting for inflation puts it at 30.2 billion USD today. Going with the World Bank GDP figures, that puts the answer as Estonia. I think Estonia works in a few other ways as well. The population is generally well educated, and they’ve got an unfriendly neighbour to provide motivation. > **[List of countries by GDP (nominal)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))** > > Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year. Countries are sorted by nominal GDP estimates from financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates. Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the country's currenc... ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/5 "2019-11-13T23:45:26Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > One possible answer would be to use mid-1960’s Israel as a baseline. Google says GDP in 1965 was 3.7 billion USD, which I think is unconverted for inflation. (Search criteria: Israel GDP 1965) Adjusting for inflation puts it at 30.2 billion USD today. Going with the World Bank GDP figures, that puts the answer as Estonia. I think Estonia works in a few other ways as well. The population is generally well educated, and they’ve got an unfriendly neighbour to provide motivation. > [List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) Israel had some help, though - while it made the actual weapons itself, it was France that designed, built and paid for the nuclear reactor. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2019, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/6 "2019-11-13T23:56:30Z")
> **[Here's how much a nuclear weapon costs](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/heres-how-much-a-nuclear-weapon-costs.html)** > > To determine the price of one nuclear weapon, you have to account for the costs of their production, delivery systems and maintenance. > [@](#): > > “South Korean government analysis has put North Korea’s nuclear spending at $1.1 billion to $3.2 billion overall,” reported Reuters last year, “although experts say it is impossible to make an accurate calculation given the secrecy surrounding the program, and estimates vary widely.” > > The U.S. government believes North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has up to 60 nuclear weapons, though some independent experts say the total is smaller. If North Korea does indeed have around 60, that puts the cost of each warhead at between around $18 million and $53 million. > > The U.S. nuclear program provides a more reliable picture of cost, though not all nuclear development information is public. In “Atomic Audit,” published in 1998, Stephen I. Schwartz claimed the U.S. had spent $5 trillion since 1940 on developing and maintaining its nuclear arsenal. > > The U.S. government is now estimated to have 6,800 nuclear weapons at its disposal, but America hasn’t actually built a new warhead or bomb since the 1990s. “It has refurbished several types in recent years to extend their lifetime,” says Dr. Lisbeth Gronlund, a senior scientist and co-director of the UCS Global Security Program. Even at the high end, $53 million isn’t a lot of money for a nation. Even a nation like Somalia has a GDP of 5 billion. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/7 "2019-11-14T00:18:48Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Israel had some help, though - while it made the actual weapons itself, it was France that designed, built and paid for the nuclear reactor. And I imagine that at least one or two of the weapons had to be tested _somewhere_… ---
**Author:** ![lingyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d2c977/32.png) [@lingyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lingyi)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/8 "2019-11-14T04:23:10Z")
> [@Hermitian](#): > > Making a working nuclear device is just the first step. Then come all these extra costs, how much of these are required: > > 1. Will they be designed to contain modern safety devices and explosives to limit yields in case of accidents (fire, dropping, crushing, ESD)? > > 2. What kind of reliability do the nuclear weapons need? 30% or 95%? > > 3. Delivery systems. How far do the delivery systems need to send this nuclear weapon? A few hundred miles: cheap. Many thousands of miles: expensive. Do they need to be able to penetrate anti ballistic missile systems or anti-aircraft systems? > > 4. Do you provide robust security for all stages of the nuclear weapons life-cycle to protect against acts of domestic or international terrorism? Serious security that never ends is serious expensive. North Korean nukes just have to make it over the DMZ! As stated, they have two nations, China and Russia helping them behind the scenes. ---
**Author:** ![yo\_han\_go](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yo_han_go/32/130_2.png) [@yo\_han\_go](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yo_han_go)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/9 "2019-11-14T04:35:59Z")
> [@](#): > > North Korean nukes just have to make it over the DMZ! BallistaNuke! As for original question, i’d say you should look for the country that has motive, will, proper regime, resources, knowledge and time. In that order. And it does’t even have to be country. Can let we say Amazon do it? Or Ford? Or Musk. Maybe, but motive can be problematic. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/10 "2019-11-14T05:32:33Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > And I imagine that at least one or two of the weapons had to be tested _somewhere_… Oh, [it was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident)… ---
**Author:** ![yabob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yabob/32/2821_2.png) [@yabob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yabob)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/11 "2019-11-14T15:29:57Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > One possible answer would be to use mid-1960’s Israel as a baseline. Google says GDP in 1965 was 3.7 billion USD, which I think is unconverted for inflation. (Search criteria: Israel GDP 1965) Adjusting for inflation puts it at 30.2 billion USD today. Going with the World Bank GDP figures, that puts the answer as Estonia. I think Estonia works in a few other ways as well. The population is generally well educated, and they’ve got an unfriendly neighbour to provide motivation. > [List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) Plus, Estonia has some uranium, though they ceased production in 1989: > **[Sillamäe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sillam%C3%A4e)** > > Sillamäe (Estonian for 'Bridge Hill'; also known by the Germanised names of Sillamäggi or Sillamägi) is a town in Ida-Viru County in the northern part of Estonia, on the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland. It has a population of 13,666 (as of 1 January 2017) and covers an area of 10.54 km2. Sillamäe is located at the mouth of Sõtke River. > The locality of Sillamäggi was first mentioned in 1502 when the area was under the control of the Livonian Order. The bridge across the Sõtke River and a ... If you want to presume that somebody could do it a bit cheaper because of lessons learned, etc, perhaps an outside shot would be Iceland - $23 billion GDP on that list. Given that they’ve gone crazy and are willing to bankrupt themselves to do so - they have no Earthly reason to WANT a nuclear program, either for power generation or weapons, but that wasn’t the premise. Also, given that they could trade for the needed resources, as mentioned. They are also a first world country with an educated population. They do have the advantages of a lot of available energy resources for manufacturing, and a lot of isolated locations for a small country, where they could conduct projects in secret. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/12 "2019-11-14T15:38:42Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Oh, [it was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident)… That seems pretty unconvincing as evidence that ‘it was’…more like ‘could have been’ with a lot of ‘maybe’ and ‘possibly’ tossed in. If this was the best evidence that such a test or tests were done, all I can say is…it’s pretty weak. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/13 "2019-11-14T18:45:53Z")
The vast majority of the difficulty in obtaining nuclear weapons is getting sufficient quantities of the right nuclear materials - i.e. Plutonium 239 or Uranium 235. There’s basically one way each to get them- you create Pu-239 in nuclear reactors, and then chemically separate it from the rest of the fuel, or you isotopically separate natural U-235 from uranium ore, where it’s a very small component. Both of these are very capital intensive- one requires nuclear reactors and processing infrastructure, and the other requires Uranium ore, and some very involved separation/purification facilities. So the presence of one of those two things- existing nuclear reactors or a pretty robust chemical industry would seem to be prerequisites for a nuclear weapon program. The engineering of the warheads themselves only requires 1945-level manufacturing/engineering technology and know-how; I can’t imagine that’s much of a hurdle anymore. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2019, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/14 "2019-11-14T19:12:05Z")
Define “poor”. And GDP is really an appropriate measuring stick. You need industry and a scientific and technical base. North Korea has a pretty substantial industrial base. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/15 "2019-11-15T00:41:50Z")
> [@Hermitian](#): > > 1. Delivery systems. How far do the delivery systems need to send this nuclear weapon? I vaguely recall a 1960’s Dick Gregory critique of those poo-poohing China’s nuke program because China lacked delivery systems. With something like a billion citizens, he said, they could hand-carry their bombs anywhere! Do old Soviet nuke components still appear on black markets? Even Vatican City could afford such. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/16 "2019-11-15T05:24:07Z")
> [@XT](#): > > That seems pretty unconvincing as evidence that ‘it was’…more like ‘could have been’ with a lot of ‘maybe’ and ‘possibly’ tossed in. If this was the best evidence that such a test or tests were done, all I can say is…it’s pretty weak. That it was a nuclear test, or that it was Israel+South Africa? Because it seems there’s [plenty of actual evidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident#More_recent_information). Including _radioactive sheep_ and acoustic data in addition to the well-known satellite data and corroborating South African testimony. And it’s pretty much an open secret here in South Africa, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2019, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/17 "2019-11-16T02:44:31Z")
The Duchy of Grand Fenwick was able to acquire a Q-bomb despite having no money for a nuclear weapons program. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2019, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/18 "2019-11-16T03:06:52Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Because it seems there’s [plenty of actual evidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident#More_recent_information). Including _radioactive sheep_ and acoustic data in addition to the well-known satellite data and corroborating South African testimony. And it’s pretty much an open secret here in South Africa, anyway. An atomic bomb explosion that doesn’t move any rocks or water? > [@](#): > > …although no radioactive debris had been detected, and there were “no corroborating seismic or hydro-acoustic data”… ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2019, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/19 "2019-11-16T13:19:17Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > An atomic bomb explosion that doesn’t move any rocks or water? Didn’t bother to read the rest of the page, I take it? ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2019, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371/20 "2019-11-16T13:33:34Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Didn’t bother to read the rest of the page, I take it? I read the whole fucking thing. Did you read my quote? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poorest-nation-that-could-possibly-pull-off-a-successful-nuclear-weapons-program/843371.md?page=2)