Actually I think if world population was growing by 50m a year with 100m births and 50m deaths- just making up numbers here- and fertility fell by half then there was no growth 40 to 45. From 45 to 50 it would grow 250m which would explain the increase from 2.2 to 2.5b. If you assume the peak deaths were in early 1945, and while 10m died per year normally it was double that in January to May 1945 there was probably a brief period of weeks or months where population fell by a fraction of a percent. Also, population fell 100k in 5 seconds on August 6, 1945 while about 1 person was born.
There’s no “obviously” about it, because supply can fall for a lot of reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with depletion. Hurricane Katrina, e.g., caused gasoline inventories to plummet because of problems at the oil terminals and refineries along the Gulf Coast. The 1979 Iranian Revolution caused inventories to decline when protests, strikes, and the flight of foreign skilled workers disrupted production in that country; the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980 screwed up production in both countries. The OPEC cartel raises and lowers production to alter supplies and hence prices, while the 1973 oil crisis was purely a political move, an attempt to use the availability and price of oil as a weapon against nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War.
In 2020, economics matters more than politics: for some producers, it’s better to turn off the taps and wait out the crisis rather than pump money-losing oil into a bad market. Shale oil, for example, tends to be expensive to produce. If the oil costs $50+/barrel to pump, a producer needs a really good reason to continue pumping when the oil fetches only $35-40/barrel when sold. Sometimes producers have a reason, sometimes they don’t, and supplies can be quite deliberately removed from the market to await better times.
The chart I linked to showed that the world population grew by 12 million in 1942 (the lowest rate during the war). I’m not sure how often babies were born in 1945, but I suspect it was faster than 1 every 5 seconds - after all, one baby was born every 11 seconds or so in the US alone (https://www.infoplease.com/us/births/live-births-and-birth-rates-year), and the US was only a small percentage of the total world population. I take your point about a momentary drop in population (recovered from in a matter of days, though).
The Iranian revolution was a consequence of a 1975 oil peak and accelerating urban poverty and unemployment. Us oil peaked in 71 and the October war was a consequence of increasing market power of OPEC vs the united states, which was the top producer at the time. The 1958 Iraqi unrest, the Suez Crisis and related things were nominally about politics but the real cause was resource depletion or growth of importance of geographic regions. There is no war going on in the permain basin, regardless.
There actually will be a war in the US now that CHAZ is almost violently resisting being evicted and that might grow to something a lot bigger. Yeah, it’s a political reason but it is obviously more serious than politics. Blame it on the disease if you want but the rapid growth in food poverty is what is making people have these problems.
Diseases and wars only really happen in malnourished populations.
It is actually impossible for me to find a major epidemic that happened in a healthy, fed, nourished population. Diseases are a malthusian catastrophe which satisfy resource constraints.
Most businesses are not criminal enterprises; they report transactions in accordance with generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), in which cash sales and sales via contactless payment methods are treated in the exact same way.
That’s true of any kind of infrastructure: buildings, nuclear power plants, bridges, refineries, pipelines, airports, etc., etc. What do you think is special or unique about wind turbines in this regard?
Surely you jest. People file lawsuits for reasons good, bad, and indifferent. “I don’t want a wind turbine in my backyard” can be a reason anywhere there is a back yard, which can be pretty much anywhere.
The pace of growth will slow in any maturing industry, as a mathematical consequence of its maturation. Are you familiar with the industry life cycle? You seem to be imputing some significance to a normal and expected course of events.
Reopening does NOT necessarily mean that demand has returned to pre-crisis levels. Just because something is legal again doesn’t mean that the same number of people are going to think it is a good idea to do it. When demand has fully returned, then yes, we would expect to see supply return to meet that demand, and if that doesn’t happen, then there is a problem. However, it is demand, not reopening, that is the driving force.
COVID-19 kills rich people too. It is spread when an infected person sheds the virus (by coughing, sneezing, etc.) and a previously-uninfected person breathes it in. That can happen in a crowded slum or a crowded upscale nightclub, and the virus isn’t checking income statements.
How have you accounted for the effects of Mr. Trump’s trade wars on industrial production, to name one external influence?
Trade is pretty irrelevant. The US buys iPhones in exchange for soybeans, airplanes and overpriced tractors. Although these might be valued in some way they are not necessary goods that run infrastructure.
Minority persons are at high risk of COVID. Since the modern hiphop culture has a lot of these people it is not surprising they have so many cases. Food shortages are just one reason. Also, drugs. These are all broad social phenomena exacerbated in societal collapse.
Wind turbines are placed under high stress, and the larger and more modern turbines are under the greatest stress. An obscure landfill in Wyoming has 800 blades.
If that’s in the middle of nowhere you can imagine how quickly turbines die considering the us has only 60k turbines and most are relatively recent. Roads dont produce massive landfills of delicate components.
It is very common for businesses to not report cash to avoid taxes. In sna Francisco many stores charge extra for card. Cash is the least reported.
This is an overly-simplistic viewpoint, ignoring the relative prosperity of Iran in the 1970s, the brutal nature of the Shah’s regime, the importance of Islam and anti-Western imperialism, the 1953 overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh, and a bunch of other factors.
Historically, in fact, revolutions tend to occur when things are getting better (just not getting better fast enough), rather than when things are getting worse. In the 1970s, Iranians expected great progress, and they were sorely disappointed by a listless, incompetent, and repressive regime, so they took over the country. In the late 1980s, eastern Europeans wanted political and social liberties to accompany their rising economic power, and when political power didn’t come, they seized it instead, as the rising middle class had tried to do in the revolutions of 1848.
False. Some diseases (many kinds of cancer, for example, and heart disease) are more prevalent in well-nourished populations. Wars for purely ideological reasons happen in wealthy nations too; what kind of “malnourishment” do you think drove the Second Gulf War, e.g., or the wars surrounding the breakup of Yugoslavia?
You’re not looking hard, then. Take a look at nourishment and health in northern Italy, e.g., and then take a look at the coronavirus epidemic there. If nobody has immunity to the disease, it doesn’t really matter how healthy and nourished they are. In 1918, months before aspirin was recommended, people were dying of the flu, and young healthy adults were more likely to die than the elderly because of cytokine storms.
Please, do explain this for me.
It’s a combination of drug use, low vitamin d and related problems. Vitamin D3 is necessary to use calcium, which drives nerve signaling and immune response.
Yugoslavia was obviously Russian resource depletion. The Gulf war is one of the rarer kinds of wars where an overwhelmingly powerful side just stomps the other. The Iraq war is the other example. There are occasionally opportunistic wars like that.
As for the 2003 Iraq war, Iraq was declining oil production for many years, Kurdistan was destabilizing and Iran was preparing to invade. So it is also a combination of declining energy and growing population leading to food stress. Pretty much all wars follow that example.
Trade is incredibly relevant to industrial production. If nobody is buying, then what is the point of making tractors or airplanes or chemicals or whatever it is your industry produces? (And if you want to grow crops to eat, you need tractors and combines and other kinds of equipment, which yes, are pretty necessary.)
Much of the increased COVID risk can be explained by the fact that minorities are more likely to have “essential” jobs that can’t be done from home, thus giving them greater exposure to potentially-infected people. Have you factored that into your thinking at all? That appears to be much more relevant than hip-hop music.
I don’t have to imagine; your own cite says 8,000 turbines a year are replaced, in part to install higher-efficiency models.
[quote=“Obama, post:43, topic:913331, full:true”]
Roads dont produce massive landfills of delicate components.
No, they produce massive amounts of solid rubble. As recently as the 1990s, construction and demolition waste (asphalt, concrete, brick, etc.) comprised about a quarter of what was hauled to American landfills. Over the past two decades or so, there has been a real push to recycle some or most of this, with significant success for asphalt, but this is a relatively new phenomenon in a well-established industry. Efforts are now being made (some cited in your article) to figure out how to recycle wind turbine blades; this is likely to become more common as the technology matures.
Cite? Very small businesses can get away with operating solely in cash, but businesses of any size are not paying their employees or their suppliers or their landlords with cash, so what do you think they’re doing with it? Businesses that charge extra for cards are doing so because card processing companies charge fees to the business.
Tractors are labor saving. They are not a major problem. There is adequate labor for agriculture it just isnt used.
The rest of your points I’m okay with, perhaps say something more exteme if you’d like me to disagree.
Cite? Do you have ANY actual scientific evidence for greater drug use among COVID victims, for example? (People who die of COVID tend to be quite elderly, which is not a population known for using illegal drugs.)
How is this “obvious”? (You do know, don’t you, that Yugoslavia wasn’t a Soviet satellite state? Tito told Stalin to pound sand back in the 1950s, and the Yugoslavs remained non-aligned right up until their country was torn apart by ethnic and religious tensions.)
Have you ever been on a modern farm?
Not covid, just aids and commonsense. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that taking crack or heroin makes you less likely to get covid.
The entire eastern bloc was held together by Soviet oil subsidies, just like- wait for it- the Confederate states are kept in check by infrastructure subsidies since Hayes. Ban me I’m a Russian bot.
No, but you are suggesting that it makes one MORE likely to get covid, and I’m asking for a cite. Do you have one, or are you just theorizing without evidence?
And yes, the Eastern Bloc relied on Soviet oil subsidies, but Yugoslavia wasn’t part of the Eastern Bloc. So, what was Russia’s connection to the Yugoslav wars?
(What infrastructure subsidies since Hayes? Are you referring to President Hayes, and if so, what infrastructure subsidies do you think existed in the late 19th century in the former Confederacy?)
The red states are all net beneficiaries of federal infrastructure and this is a compromise in 1877 to end reconstruction while keeping them in the union. Doenst matter.
Russia, obviously, supported Serbia against the NATO/kebab forces. The Serbs bribed everyone to not attack them for decades and a soviet subsidies went down NATO started attacking this starting the war.
I dont think I need to cite that drugs are bad for your immune system or that the populations that associate with that are unhealthy.
The point is taken, the beast is molting, the fluff gets up your nose. The illusion is complete; it is reality, the reality is illusion and the ambiguity is the only truth. But is the truth, as Hitchcock observes, in the box? No there isn’t room, the ambiguity has put on weight. The point is taken, the elk is dead, the beast stops at Swindon, Chabrol stops at nothing, I’m having treatment and La Fontaine can get knotted.
*(Cut to the men in white coats).
Incest wasnt always taboo…
We know. Ruling families practiced incest so that they could keep the power within the family.
The rest of the people did not practice this under normal conditions.
Scientists recommend that inbreeding should be avoided. Why do you promote it?