# Portent or Coincidence?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [December 27, 2004, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823 "2004-12-27T21:13:53Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/21 "2004-12-29T11:45:53Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#):
>
> It is incumbant upon those who make extraordinary or fantasic claims…_impossible_ claims…to pony up the evidence. I don’t have to disprove nonsense.
And so it goes for God too, right? I only ask because I need allies in my constent battle against superstitious nonsense.
But somehow, god-belief always gets a pass— why is that?
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### Author:  [@Baldwin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baldwin)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/22 "2004-12-29T12:02:34Z")
> [@](#):
>
> What you all fail to grasp is that I didn’t consciously make a prediction, or even want to make a prediction. It compelled me I am not claiming that it is prophecy or prediction. I am just relating a series of events…
No, I think we all grasp that. We also noted that you referred to your little brainstorm as a “premonition” and a “prediction” in your OP, but you seem to be backing away from that now. At least you got in your enthusiastic review of your own bar tricks. Have you had enough attention now?
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### Author:  [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/23 "2004-12-29T12:14:53Z")
Here’s weird: the last huge earthquake tragedy, in Bam, Iran, happened on December 26th, 2003; this one happened on December 26th, 2004. Coincidence?
Yes.
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### Author:  [@norinew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/norinew)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/24 "2004-12-29T12:39:18Z")
> [@I Love Me](#):
>
> And so it goes for God too, right? I only ask because I need allies in my constent battle against superstitious nonsense.
>
> But somehow, god-belief always gets a pass— why is that?
Well, as a theist, myself, I didn’t feel qualified to comment on this, so I asked hubby, who is a devout atheist. He says he’s willing to give me (and other theists) a pass because, unlike, say, John Edwards, I don’t try to convince anyone of anything. Now, plenty of evangelist types do just this very thing, and as soon as they cross that line between what they personally believe and what they _expect_ him to believe, they become every bit as much a target of ridicule and sharply worded common-sense commentary.
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### Author:  [@Khadaji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Khadaji)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/25 "2004-12-29T13:40:27Z")
> [@devilsknew](#):
>
> What you all fail to grasp is that I didn’t consciously make a prediction, or even want to make a prediction. _It_ compelled _me_ I am not claiming that it is prophecy or prediction. I am just relating a series of events…
LOL. I predict…no matter how much logic he/she is shown, \*\*devilsknew \*\* will continue to believe that he/she had a premonition. Ah well, it ain’t hurting anyone, so go ahead. (but if _It_ compells _you_ to kill and eat your neighbors, ignore _it_ and seek help. 😃 )
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/26 "2004-12-29T15:12:58Z")
Bottom line: a real premonition, to have any meaning and to be identifiable as a premonition, has to be specific. This wasn’t.
> [@devilsknew](#):
>
> I didn’t get a timeframe, there was no magical exact indexing of a time or date.
So you somehow _KNEW_ that at some point, there would be a big earthquake somewhere. Do you not get why this isn’t a big deal?
> [@](#):
>
> The premonition was vague in specifics but certain in event—EARTHQUAKE, and by amplification… I assumed a big one…something that meant certain disaster and great loss of life, not a tremblor or small event and innately, something that would equate with both the order of manifestation and type of elementals that manifested.
If you have no idea what an earthquake is actually like, you can’t know that that what you “felt” was accurate.
> [@](#):
>
> I have never claimed psychic ability nor made a serious prediction outside of this one.
You still haven’t- is this supposed to make your prediction more credible?
> [@](#):
>
> This was not a prediction of a time specific event but rather a strong urge to warn people that something big was coming and that it was an Earthquake, that I believed and was certain in every fiber of being.
Betcha you would’ve forgot about it if a newsmaking quake hadn’t actually happened seven months later. Why have you decided that your prediction applies to this event? The answer is that you just haven’t heard about earthquakes that fit just as well. That is because your ‘prediction’ provided no information at all and is so vague as to be meaningless. That’s why this is a coincidence.
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### Author:  [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/27 "2004-12-29T16:31:42Z")
> [@I Love Me](#):
>
> And so it goes for God too, right? I only ask because I need allies in my constent battle against superstitious nonsense.
>
> But somehow, god-belief always gets a pass— why is that?
_Belief_ in God is one thing. If someone says “I believe in God,” who am I to argue or to piss on that? It’s only when someone wants to convince _me_ to believe in God (or when they want to codify their beliefs into law) that I’m going to start getting scientific about it.
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### Author:  [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/28 "2004-12-29T16:34:55Z")
> [@Lemur866](#):
>
> Oh yeah, Diogenes? And what about my predictions? Huh? What about my detailed predictions about future events that will take place in the future. After all, that is were we will all spend the rest of our lives. How can I predict exactly what movies my daughter will want to watch in 2005, a year that hasn’t even happened yet? What about that, tough guy?
If you change _Shrek 2_ to _Finding Nemo_ we have the exact same daughter. 🙂
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### Author:  [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/29 "2004-12-29T18:05:43Z")
aahala:
> [@](#):
>
> I’ve been having sex ‘manifestations’ SINCE May 7. Should I call my wife?
If she doesn’t already know about it, I wouldn’t recommend calling her now. 😛
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### Author:  [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/30 "2004-12-29T19:48:56Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#):
>
> If you change _Shrek 2_ to _Finding Nemo_ we have the exact same daughter. 🙂
Both of you are lucky!–You didnt have a 2 year old when Barney the Dinosaur was popular 🙂
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### Author:  [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/31 "2004-12-29T19:52:35Z")
> [@chappachula](#):
>
> Both of you are lucky!–You didnt have a 2 year old when Barney the Dinosaur was popular 🙂
Although, in the era of the Boombas, I don’t see that they’re much better off…
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### Author:  [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)
#### Post date: [December 29, 2004, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/32 "2004-12-29T23:14:02Z")
> [@devilsknew](#):
>
> I have never claimed psychic ability nor made a serious prediction outside of this one… you be the judge
Don’t mind if I do; I submit for your perusal: [Spoonbending with Mr Nude](http://www.geocities.com/mmemym/bits1/fal0006.htm)
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### Author:  [@devilsknew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/devilsknew)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/33 "2004-12-30T03:21:02Z")
That is hilarious, love that! Fry and Laurie, hmm…I thought it was Monty Python at first!
Seriously, I see your point. And I know how this looks, however it was a meaningful personal experience that I would seriously like to diminish in significance, and contrary to some opinions here, I really have no book to sell or any other personal stake-- I desire no strokes and really don’t even have a dog in this fight. I just thought a sounding board and some objectivity might help me reclaim some peace of mind. I thank all for their attempts to disabuse me of the more ominous implications of some highly charged coinciding events.
Thank you, you are all very sympathetic. 😃
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### Author:  [@Sample\_the\_Dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sample_the_Dog)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/34 "2004-12-30T03:51:02Z")
> [@devilsknew](#):
>
> What you all fail to grasp is that I didn’t consciously make a prediction, or even want to make a prediction. _It_ compelled _me_
And what you fail to grasp is that you are a freaking loon.
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### Author:  [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/35 "2004-12-30T04:10:14Z")
> [@Sample\_the\_Dog](#):
>
> And what you fail to grasp is that you are a freaking loon.
_elbows **Sample\_the\_Dog** in the ribs, points to forum title, saunters off_
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### Author:  [@Sample\_the\_Dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sample_the_Dog)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/36 "2004-12-30T04:15:01Z")
> [@jayjay](#):
>
> _elbows **Sample\_the\_Dog** in the ribs, points to forum title, saunters off_
::tosses a paper cup in **jayjay** ’s direction, eats half a pistachio, hides under table::
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### Author:  [@andymurph64](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andymurph64)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/37 "2004-12-30T20:38:28Z")
Yesterday I had a premonition on my drive home that something horrible was happening to my wife and home.
It was strong and took me by surprise as I tend not to believe that things things can happen.
I was more than a little apprehensive coming home and walking inside.
My wife was not where she usually was…I walked through the house still wearing my coat. She was not to be seen. I called out…
…turns out she was in the basement (where she normally isn’t) looking for something. I ask her if everything was alright and she said yes.
If something would have happened, would that have been psychic? Since it didn’t happen, I will forget about it quickly.
What if it happens next week? next month? next year?
NO…it was a miss…a swing and a miss and I was wrong.
Your prediction had a time frame…currently or just happened but the news had not gone out yet. Didn’t happen…swing and a miss. Having it happen 9 months later does not make it a hit, just like if I go home next year and find out something bad had happened to wife and home.
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/38 "2004-12-30T21:48:37Z")
For someone who claims to be skeptical, the OP sure does throw around the terms “elementals” with a certain strange ease. There is, I hope you know, nothing “elemental” about either Earth, Air, Fire, or Water.
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### Author:  [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/39 "2004-12-30T22:19:05Z")
> [@John Mace](#):
>
> For someone who claims to be skeptical, the OP sure does throw around the terms “elementals” with a certain strange ease. There is, I hope you know, nothing “elemental” about either Earth, Air, Fire, or Water.
But the Gnomes, man! The Gnomes!
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### Author:  [@devilsknew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/devilsknew)
#### Post date: [December 30, 2004, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/portent-or-coincidence/281823/40 "2004-12-30T23:28:38Z")
> [@John Mace](#):
>
> For someone who claims to be skeptical, the OP sure does throw around the terms “elementals” with a certain strange ease. There is, I hope you know, nothing “elemental” about either Earth, Air, Fire, or Water.
Did you read what I wrote? I do a magic act that incorporates mysticism, It is part and parcel of what I do. I have also read books about “magick” and when I say “elemental”, I mean the classical and ancient idea of the four elements–water, air, fire, and earth. It is a pretty common usage.
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