What? You’re not claiming that she could get elected by the whole of Minnesota to anything, are you?
Dropping like flies? Cite?
Forming a more conservative subset of the Republicans? That’s like enriching Loontonium.
It’s obvious – Alberta has never sent Democratic electors, Senators, or Congressmen to Washington. And I can confidently predict that Sam could question a thousand people who live near his home at random, and find very few who could truthfully say they voted for Obama in 2008. 
One cite here: Generic Ballot - Dems vs Republicans
This is a survey of all the ‘generic ballot’ polls, asking the question “If an election were held today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?”
You can see that the older data going back a couple of years is a sea of blue - all Democrat. The margin was as high as 24 points in favor of Democrats.
Starting this summer, Republicans started winning those polls again. There’s huge variance in these polls, so any individual result is suspect. But taken as a big picture, it sure looks like the Democrats are losing support to me.
Another sign of discontent with current Democratic policies would be the ‘Right track/Wrong Track’ numbers. Back in April, the gap was down to single digits, with a few polls showing a majority of people thinking the country was on the right track. Starting this fall, that’s really changed, and there’s now an average 16.7 point gap between the minority who think the U.S. is on the right track and the majority who think it isn’t.
And of course, Obama’s approval ratings have dropped nine points in this quarter.
I assure you as a long time Minnesotan that Michelle Bachmann is not a rising star in this state. Outside of her own district, she is regarded as an embarrassment and a joke. She could never win a state wide election, and barely held onto her own heavily conservative district in 2008. She may have some cache nationally among teabaggers, but she is intensely unpopular in Minnesota.
I don’t know what the republican party is anymore. They have been completely taken over by the neocons and the religious right. Is that who they are now? Is there a power block sitting in the back ground that really believes in smaller government? Is there a group that actually can put the people in front of big money? The dems have enough trouble doing that. How can the repubs get any credibility ? If they splintered away .it might take a long time to get any national strength.
Since Reagan the party has been seriously on the wrong track. I don’t see anybody who can save them.
There are actually other countries (other than Mexico and Canada) where more than two parties exist. That kind of multi-party system works with coalition governments. Just saying that what happens in the USA isn’t necessarily the only or even the best way to go.
Although, once a system is in place it seems very difficult to change. I don’t know of any example of a two party state becoming multi party or vice versa.
That really indicates what an outlier Rasmussen is, doesn’t it?
Seems to me the Partido Revolucionario Institucional held power in Mexico for seventy years, until losing the presidency in 2000. If one party rule can work there, perhaps it can work in the US for a similar length of time.
That’d certainly allow the conservatives some breathing room in order to sort out their differences.
And in her district she is not at all popular among a large minority of her constituents. She isn’t one of those “well, I’m normally a Democrat, but my Rep is a decent, honest human being” types of politicians.
It would shock me if TPaw thumbed the GOP - rumors persist he wants to pursue a national office. To do that he’ll need their money. Getting their money means playing to the party.
Also, the Constitution Party and the America First Party are much younger parties-of-the-right, and each is already a bigger deal than the Conservative Party (which exists in NY only).
I guess I meant she’s a rising star in conservative circles. I don’t know a thing about her popularity in her state. I just got that sense because she’s recently had features written on her in the New York Times and recently from George Will. Your average congressperson doesn’t really get that kind of attention.
In the last Daily Kos/R2000 poll, Hoffman is trailing the Republican by 7 points, and trailing the leader by 10. But that poll was taken the day the six politicians endorsed him, and probably doesn’t have that information captured. Next week’s poll will tell us if they had any impact.
Unfortunately, they are.
Canada. From Confederation in 1867 until WWI, we had essentially two parties at the federal level, Liberal and Conservative. WWI and the social unrest that followed it in the 20s broke that pattern, first with members of the two main the parties splitting / coalescing over the conscription issue during the war, and then over social issues in the 20s. The general election of 1921 returned a House of Commons with nine different parties (counting the two independents as a single group).
There are already SEVERAL third parties on the right. What difference will one more make?
You do realize that Michael Bloomberg isn’t actually a Republican right? You think that an actual conservative candidate is going to get much in the way of votes in the Big Apple? You’re kidding yourself.
He might come in on par with Reverend Billy.
I’d like to point out that electing Buckley in New York State for Senator is not the same thing as electing someone to be Mayor of New York City.
My Prediction? Michael Bloomberg is going to win.
Bloomberg leads Thompson by 16 point amongst likely voters.
I am a registered Democrat who registered Dem for the first time to vote for Obama and I will likely be voting for Michael Bloomberg. I didn’t even know this other candidate existed, not even New York 1 has reported this as being anything of significance. When Reverend Billy disrupted the first Mayoral debate, they didn’t even report that he was a candidate for Mayor, they didn’t even name him.
There’s really one and a half candidates in this race, Michael Bloomberg (1) and Bill Thompson (0.5)
Since Bill Thompson has promised to replace Bloomberg’s effective team with a bunch of cronies, I don’t seem him doing very well.
What have any of them done to limit government? Republicans have been talking about limited government since before I was old enough to vote. Despite twenty years of Republican presidents, and periodic majorities in the House and Senate, no one seems to have limited a blessed thing. On this particular point, their credibility with me is completely shot. Talk is cheap; what have any of them actually done to limit government?
From a national point of view, I think the Sarah Palin endorsement is the only one of value. I would not be surprised to hear a Limbaugh and/or Huckabee endorsement before long.
Hoffman is going to lose, and I think the endorsers are well aware of it. By endorsing a strong core conservative they are highlighting their core credentials. The loss will be blamed on big liberal dollars, liberal media, etc. But these will be good credentials to take to the polls in the 2010 mid-terms.
In short I don’t think there is enough at stake here to start a national Consevative Party movement, but it is a good time for some Republicans with enough name recognition to be viable in 2010 to start making their appealing to their core. The fact that the endorsers are not currently associated with the GOP is relevant. They can separate themselves from the current GOP incumbents who are going to have a bruising year.
In the near term, I think this jockeying for the hearts-and-minds of the core is fundementally bad for the GOP as a whole, for the reasons tha Der Trihs and others have already covered.