# Post-BRexit fallout and happenings **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 24, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205 "2016-06-24T04:13:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/81 "2016-06-24T16:41:56Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > On the downside, barriers to travel and trade will go back up. Hopefully some compromise can be found to keep the effects of that relatively small. Actually just trade; the UK was never part of the Schengen Agreement (separate from the EU), so you always had to go through customs, etc… whenever going to or from the UK, even to other EU nations. That’s one of the things some people don’t realize- what they think of as “the EU” is a little bit smaller than what they think- the Eurozone and the Schengen Agreement are largely contiguous with, but separate from the EU, and the UK was never part of either. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/82 "2016-06-24T16:44:19Z")
It is a sad day for Europe and I hope the English (it is the English and not the other British mostly) become more sober and have another reflection. Without them the EU does not have a good and strong voice for the liberalism which is sad. > [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > I actually think the countries of the UK will realize how valuable each other is. Also, relations with America and especially Israel will improve, since the EU somewhat hoped to be a rival to America, and the EU is extremely hostile towards Israel, not to mention the Muslim immigrants who pour into Britain because of the EU’s idiotic immigration policies. Eh voila, it is about Fear of the Muslims, and the Fetish of Israel and the Shining America… Very strange the world view behind this, very strange. > [@QuickSilver](#): > > Not every damn thing is about Israel, for fuck sake. No everything happening in the world must indeed tie back to the Angelic USA + the Israel-USA + theEvil Muslim Hordes + the Communist promotion of the transgenderism that is so scary etc. > [@ITR\_champion](#): > > I [mountain of regulations that the EU has imposed.](https://reason.com/archives/2016/06/22/the-brexit-vote-is-a-referendum-on-the-e) Less economic regulation means more growth. . This is an ignorant fantasy that requires not knowing anything practical of how the trade zone works and the mistake it is the EU regulations not the domestic. The British will still face, as do the Norwegians and the Swiss and all others of the Economic Area the EU regulations, except they will not fight for a liberal approach. > [@Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](#): > > Obama can’t handle the fact a handful of Brits could take over Kenya. He’s always been ashamed about that fact.☹ He will seek revenge against the UK as one of his last acts as President but he can’t change history. it is hard to believe this is a serious comment… _ **provocateur** _ is a synonym perhaps. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/83 "2016-06-24T16:47:13Z")
> [@Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](#): > > Obama can’t handle the fact a handful of Brits could take over Kenya. He’s always been ashamed about that fact.☹ He will seek revenge against the UK as one of his last acts as President but he can’t change history. Cite for this fantasy? ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/84 "2016-06-24T16:48:28Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Setting the threshold at 60% would have done the trick. Why did not Cameron put a condition of some large percent and/or that all the Regions or the components of the UK must vote also in favor? It seems to me a kind of stupidity after the narrowness of the Scottish referendum to not to have made clear conditions of a full consensus among the parts of the UK! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/85 "2016-06-24T16:49:46Z")
> [@nightshadea](#): > > some one in a another thread said this vote was non binding so couldn’t they stall until the mood changes and revote ? > [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Legally binding referendums are impossible in the UK. Major changes to the fundamental nature of Parliament would have to be made for a binding referendum to be held on any subject. Call me “someone”. 🙂 Can you, or another Brit, explain to us ignorant colonials how this all works? Does parliament have to go along with this referendum, and what if conditions change between now and next year? Could there be another referendum? What if Parliament voted to stay in? The ruling party might risk being thrown out, but if there is another general election, there will be all sorts of other issues that come into play. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/86 "2016-06-24T16:55:41Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > Why did not Cameron put a condition of some large percent and/or that all the Regions or the components of the UK must vote also in favor? It seems to me a kind of stupidity after the narrowness of the Scottish referendum to not to have made clear conditions of a full consensus among the parts of the UK! I suspect he was trying to avoid looking like he was gaming the system and was confident that Scotland and London would have enough weight to carry it. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/87 "2016-06-24T16:59:21Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > It will be good for Britain. > > All the doomsday predictions from politicians about economic disaster will prove to be false. There may be a short-term contraction, but in the long run the country will benefit from shaking loose from Brussels and the [mountain of regulations that the EU has imposed.](https://reason.com/archives/2016/06/22/the-brexit-vote-is-a-referendum-on-the-e) Less economic regulation means more growth. I predict that over the next 5 years, Britain’s economy will grow faster than the EU’s. Just like [Kansas](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=740540), right? ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/88 "2016-06-24T17:01:01Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not so sure even that bad. The FTSE dropped 16% at open but is now only off 3.57%. The S&P500 is only off 2.58% right now. I would have expected some immediate overreactions to be sure but recovery to stocks beyond the London markets will likely be pretty fast. And at this point it doesn’t even qualify as a buying opportunity! (Not that I have cash on hand to do that with.) > > Trump coincidentally going to Scotland for his golf course. > > Does this vote have any impact on U.S. elections? This vote ought to encourage all the sane folks who don’t want President Trump to take the trouble to vote next November. Even if they hoped to vote for Bernie… ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/89 "2016-06-24T17:02:42Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I suspect he was trying to avoid looking like he was gaming the system and was confident that Scotland and London would have enough weight to carry it. Then he seems to deserve the scorn that is being heaped on him… what a stupid thing to do after the close call with the Scottish referendum and the history of the opinion polls with strong differences regionally about the EU… Very stupid risk to take. It is very hard to understand. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/90 "2016-06-24T17:16:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Cite for this fantasy? His name is his cite. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/91 "2016-06-24T17:25:36Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > It will be good for Britain. > > All the doomsday predictions from politicians about economic disaster will prove to be false. There may be a short-term contraction, but in the long run the country will benefit from shaking loose from Brussels and the [mountain of regulations that the EU has imposed.](https://reason.com/archives/2016/06/22/the-brexit-vote-is-a-referendum-on-the-e) Less economic regulation means more growth. I predict that over the next 5 years, Britain’s economy will grow faster than the EU’s. > [@Enginerd](#): > > Just like [Kansas](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=740540), right? Even if I think also that the levels of doom are exagerated I still think that **ITR champion** is naively thinking that everything will be fine and the promises of the ones supporting the leave campaign will be fulfilled. When Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP, tells you that he never promised that all the money given as contribution to the EU would go to the British Health care when the propaganda did told the British that that was the case if Leave succeeded; it points to a lot of the promises that UKIP and others made to get the Leave vote to be pie in the sky, and unlikely to become reality. > **[The Withdrawal - Digby's Hullabaloo](https://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-ponies-arent-coming.html)** > > Since Trump is determined that we are going to talk about the Afghanistan withdrawal let's talk about it. Kevin Drum has the best discussion that I've seen: Regular readers know that I've long been annoyed by the relentless use of the... ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/92 "2016-06-24T17:26:54Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > This vote ought to encourage all the sane folks who don’t want President Trump to take the trouble to vote next November. Even if they hoped to vote for Bernie… I hope so … the lazy assumptions of the youth who now are betrayed should be a lesson. > [@Enginerd](#): > > Just like [Kansas](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=740540), right? funny, but of course his extremist ideological comment magazine in its analysis did not even understand the framework of the trade zones… > [@JohnT](#): > > His name is his cite. Exact. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/93 "2016-06-24T17:32:24Z")
What are the long-run possibilities? The conventional wisdom is that this cannot be reversed but is that really true? The young voted strongly for remain and over a period of time the older leave voters will pass away so isn’t it possible that Britain will return to the EU in say 15 years especially if the latter has got its economic act together again? ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/94 "2016-06-24T17:36:53Z")
Once more, since Magna Carta times, the British have overthrown their overlords. Things will be fine, today it is all hysteria by those who have no idea of what the future brings. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/95 "2016-06-24T17:54:36Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Less economic regulation means more growth. Cit for that, as a general law of economics? ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/96 "2016-06-24T17:56:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Setting the threshold at 60% would have done the trick. > [@Ramira](#): > > Why did not Cameron put a condition of some large percent and/or that all the Regions or the components of the UK must vote also in favor? It seems to me a kind of stupidity after the narrowness of the Scottish referendum to not to have made clear conditions of a full consensus among the parts of the UK! > [@CarnalK](#): > > I suspect he was trying to avoid looking like he was gaming the system and was confident that Scotland and London would have enough weight to carry it. > [@Ramira](#): > > Then he seems to deserve the scorn that is being heaped on him… what a stupid thing to do after the close call with the Scottish referendum and the history of the opinion polls with strong differences regionally about the EU… Very stupid risk to take. It is very hard to understand. Agreed, similar points were made in this related thread [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19429882&postcount=192): > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/149): > > …You’d think that Cameron’s government would have set up the vote as requiring a supermajority (i.e. at least 3/5 or 2/3 or even 3/4 of the vote) to effect a change to the status quo, especially for such an important issue. > > I’m not as familiar with voting rules in the U.K., but we have precedence for supermajority requirements here in the U.S. for important votes, including the 3/5 supermajority needed in the U.S. Senate to invoke cloture and cut off further debate, the 2/3 supermajority needed in the U.S. Senate to ratify a treaty, the 2/3 supermajority needed in Congress to override a presidential veto, and the 3/4 supermajority of state legislatures needed to ratify an amendment to the Constitution. > > It seems odd that Cameron’s government would have allowed itself to be boxed into such a corner, and that the direction of the country could be altered by a simple majority vote, especially with the vote as close as was predicted. > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/192): > > The more I think about this (having only seriously paid attention to this in the last day or so), the more I think that it is absolutely ludicrous that the Brexit referendum was not set up from the start as requiring a supermajority to make a change to the status quo. > > Not requiring a supermajority means that the outcome can be tipped simply by relative turnout. For example, I heard this morning that [75 percent of Brits 24 and younger backed a Remain vote](http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-youth-voted-remain-leave-eu-brexit-referendum-stats/), but that their turnout was relatively low as compared to older voters. One young voter who was interviewed on the BBC stated that many of her friends didn’t bother voting because they never seriously thought that a “Leave” vote had any chance of passing. > > (Incidentally, the results of the referendum vote by age group is [striking](http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-youth-voted-remain-leave-eu-brexit-referendum-stats/). It’s notable that the voters who wanted Brexit the least will have to live with the consequences the longest.) > > I wouldn’t be surprised that if (hypothetically speaking) another referendum were held next week or next month that the outcome would be different. A requirement for a supermajority to make a change to the status quo avoids this back-and-forth. > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/155): > > I wonder if he can use this rule retroactively. A referendum is just a gauge for what the public wants, it’s not a final decision. Maybe he can still veto it and say the majority was too close to enact it. > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/192): > > That’s not what Cameron is saying this morning, and unfortunately, taking such action would smack of “moving the goalposts.” > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/162): > > Then EVERY modern election is illegitimate. > > In 2008, Barack Obama was elected by 52.9% of 57.1%. By your logic, he’s not _really_ president. > [@UK EU In/Out referendum-:Polling day thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uk-eu-in-out-referendum-polling-day-thread/758125/192): > > Elections for political office are different, because _somebody_ has to be elected. If you require a supermajority for elective office, and a supermajority fails to be achieved, there is no status quo to return to. Either the office remains unfilled, or the incumbent remains in office (which is even more problematic, if it is even possible). > > Also, an election for political office is not permanent, but only lasts for the length of the term of office. If a politician is elected with a simple majority or even with just a plurality of the vote, and doesn’t do a good job, then the voters can simply vote him/her out of office at the next election. > > On the other hand, a permanent change (like a change to the Constitution in the U.S., or the Brexit referendum under discussion herein) should absolutely require a supermajority to change the status quo, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/97 "2016-06-24T17:58:05Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > Once more, since Magna Carta times, the British have overthrown their overlords. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/98 "2016-06-24T17:59:50Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > What are the long-run possibilities? The conventional wisdom is that this cannot be reversed but is that really true? The young voted strongly for remain and over a period of time the older leave voters will pass away so isn’t it possible that Britain will return to the EU in say 15 years especially if the latter has got its economic act together again? The real process begins with the government of the United Kingdom invoking formally with Brussels the Article 50. It is not automatic and I read that the voting under the UK law was not legally binding on the government. So there are steps still. ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/99 "2016-06-24T18:03:08Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > … > > Firstly, the SNP no longer has a majority in the Scottish Parliament, it will need other parties agreement to get an agreement for a new referendum, which is very unlikely. So at the very least the referendum will have to wait until after the next Scottish election; due in 2020. > > … They would only have to persuade the Green Party to back them. SNP + Greens is an overall majority. ---
**Author:** ![Salvor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Salvor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Salvor)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205/100 "2016-06-24T18:04:34Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Sturgeon has just started the countdown to IndyRef Two: > > Clear change in constitutional circumstances; > Referendum is on the table; > Legislation to enable referendum being prepared for \<2.5 year timeline. > If need be, to be held without Westminster agreement. > > **The fuse is lit…** Indeed it is. The scotts may separate, join the Euro, as Sweden and others start to domino out of it. Light the fuse and explode [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-brexit-fallout-and-happenings/758205.md?page=6)