# post-debate polls: **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115 "2012-10-08T18:42:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/1 "2012-10-08T18:42:37Z")
So … the conventional wisdom is that a party’s convention gives their respective candidate a “bounce” in the polls which fades over time. What about improvement in the polls following a strong debate performance? Do we expect that to fade with time or does it represent a “new normal” in the race? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/2 "2012-10-08T20:24:41Z")
Good question. I think the answer is “we don’t know,” since there has been relatively few modern Presidential races with strongly watched national debates. I’m sure Romney hopes that his lasts, especially with [Pew Research giving him his first national poll lead.](http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/romney-takes-lead-in-latest-pew-research-center-poll/) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/3 "2012-10-08T21:10:10Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > … relatively few modern Presidential races with strongly watched national debates … My understanding was that this debate was more popular than most past debates, but not by so much that I’d consider it “strongly watched” and others not so: [http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx](http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx) said, “An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, **similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates**.” [http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/05/dont-be-fooled-that-debate-was-big-deal/](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/05/dont-be-fooled-that-debate-was-big-deal/) said, “More than 62 million viewers watched Kerry and Bush duke it out eight years ago. For Romney and Obama, it was more than 67 million, plus millions more watching online. The Romney Obama contest was the most watched first debate since 1980, when an estimated 80 million viewers watched the only contest between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/4 "2012-10-08T21:21:20Z")
Looks like it was a [12-point swing towards Romney in the last three weeks](http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/09-19-12%20Political%20release.pdf), with a 4-point deficit by a [firm with a decidedly pro-Obama house effect](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/). I’m sure that the campaign team is praying to the polling gods that this is a significant outlier (which, in fairness, it likely is). ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/5 "2012-10-08T21:48:43Z")
Both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a big jump for Obama today. They are both three day rolling averages, which means the poll on Thursday, the day after the debate, dropped out of the calculations. Gallup showed Obama’s job approval numbers went from 48 approve to 51 approve, and the head-to-head national polling went from 49-46 Obama to 50-45 Obama. Rasmussen showed an almost identical jump. In a couple more days all the polling will reflect the numbers post-jobs report, so I think it will end up being a short-lived bounce for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/6 "2012-10-08T21:50:05Z")
[Eh, look at all the polls on RCP.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls) Romney has held similar leads at various points throughout this campaign, most recently in a June poll by Gallup. No question about it, Romney turned in a stellar debate performance, but there seems to be a pattern with these polls whenever the race seemingly tightens up like this; namely, that a number of +Romney polls come out close together before being overshadowed by many more +Obama polls. And seriously, nobody is even going to be talking about the first debate after the Biden/Ryan debate on Thursday. Moreover, if Obama is able to beat Romney in debate number two, nobody will even care about the one that came before it. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/7 "2012-10-08T22:31:12Z")
[A poll done by a liberal interest apparently also shows Romney leading,](https://twitter.com/markos/status/255363630026072064) although it notes that this poll was taken (exclusively, it seems) last Thursday and Friday, so who knows what effect that had. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/8 "2012-10-08T22:47:22Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > [Eh, look at all the polls on RCP.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls) I have been. The ones since the debate show a tie or a Romney lead. > [@2ManyTacos](#): > > And seriously, nobody is even going to be talking about the first debate after the Biden/Ryan debate on Thursday. Moreover, if Obama is able to beat Romney in debate number two, nobody will even care about the one that came before it. I agree that no one will be talking about the first debate in another week, but is the effect that it had on voters going to last beyond that? It was a chance for Romney to alter people’s perception of him, and he seems to have done that. I don’t expect that to be undone by the next debate, even though this one won’t be in the news anymore at that point. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/9 "2012-10-08T23:30:47Z")
I haven’t looked at the crosstabs in the polls, but what exactly is it that’s happening? Are undecided voters declaring for Romney? Are previously unlikely voters now likely Romney voters? Are likely Obama voters now staying home? Or are previous Obama voters now declaring for Romney? My guess: Romney’s debate victory helped wash off the loser stench and a lot of Republicans that were previously undecided or falling out of the likely voter screen are now saying they’ll show up and vote for him. I’ve thought all along that there were a lot of those people and that most of them would have turned out for Romney anyway. As Clinton liked to say, Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/10 "2012-10-09T00:06:05Z")
Silver suggests that some of the decline we’re seeing is more related to Obama’s unusually strong post election bounce fading: > [@](#): > > Mr. Obama got a bounce coming out of Charlotte, and it had some staying power — with his national lead appearing to peak at about five or six percentage points. But polling released immediately after the debate seemed to suggest that Mr. Romney had drawn into a rough national tie. > > By the weekend, however — after the release of a favorable jobs report last Friday — Mr. Romney’s bounce seemed to be receding some. Tracking polls released on Monday by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports actually showed a shift back toward Mr. Obama, although another poll by Pew Research showed Mr. Romney with a four-point lead among likely voters. > > Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect. The overall picture hasn’t really changed much. [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/after-conventions-follow-the-bouncing-poll-numbers/](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/after-conventions-follow-the-bouncing-poll-numbers/) ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/11 "2012-10-09T03:21:09Z")
Does anybody know if [unskewedpolls.com](http://unskewedpolls.com) “unskewed” theT R+5 lean that Pew found in that poll? Cause that hasn’t happened in something like 30 years - surely they want their readers to have the “true facts”, right? ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/12 "2012-10-09T04:13:58Z")
[What a difference a day makes.](http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html) > [@](#): > > Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night: > > Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/13 "2012-10-09T04:34:05Z")
Things might be different this cycle. The Republican race featured extremely crucial debate performances that skyrocketed candidates to the top or brought them low. I figured it was a quirk of the Republican race’s dynamics that led to debates being more important than usual, but maybe something’s just different now. Maybe debates are the most important event, at least if one candidate clearly bests the other. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/14 "2012-10-09T04:41:10Z")
I’m sorry, but a swing that huge just doesn’t strike me as likely or likely permanent. Who knows, maybe I’m wrong, but viscerally, it just feels unbelievable. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/15 "2012-10-09T04:47:25Z")
Pew’s sample does skew very Republican. I don’t buy a Romney 4 point lead. But I think the Gallup and Rasmussen polls showing a tie probably are accurate. And the Battleground poll showed Romney with a 16 point lead among independents. While still trailing by 2. Which is also pretty unlikely. I just try to look at the independent breakdown. Any candidate that wins independents by 5 or more is almost certain to win the election. Party turnout is hard to predict, but it’s not likely that either side would be able to turn out enough of their own base to overcome a big lead among independents by one or the other candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/16 "2012-10-09T07:12:11Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > [What a difference a day makes.](http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html) No one poll is that important. If Romney’s numbers continue to improve, and other polls improve for him as well, then you’d have something. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/17 "2012-10-09T07:51:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Pew’s sample does skew very Republican. Yes, but that’s to be expected when a poll shows Romney with such a large lead. Party ID is fluid, which is why all of the “unskewing” we’ve seen recently is such a crock. (I think [unskewedpolls.com](http://unskewedpolls.com) bases its rigged numbers off of party _registration_, which is pretty stupid normally but downright hilarious in a year when only one party had a series of contested presidential primaries.) ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/18 "2012-10-09T08:50:15Z")
Pew’s poll is probably an outlier. Amusing to watch Sullivan’s histrionics though. Gallup shows Obama up 50-45. And there is a Rand [poll](http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/50733f63ebcabf32040000ac)from Sunday which shows him up 49-45. Romney undoubtedly got a big bounce on Thursday and Friday, not suprising given the near-universal media adulation over his debate performance. But the evidence suggests that his bounce had receded quickly over the weekend. I am guessing by this week the race will be what it was before the debate with Obama up 4-5 points. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/19 "2012-10-09T08:59:11Z")
I have to say it’s amusing to watch the reactions of the two sides to bad news in the last few weeks. With the Republicans, it’s denialism and crazy conspiracy theories arguing that the numbers are fake. With some Democrats at least, it’s blind panic and abject defeatism ; they did the same thing after Palin’s nomination seemed to turn the race around at first in 2008. Fortunately for them, Obama and his team are made of sterner stuff and will take this set-back in their stride. Like I said it’s probably not much of a set-back anyway and and the long-term effect of the debate is likely to be negligible. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2012, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115/20 "2012-10-09T09:58:34Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > [What a difference a day makes.](http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html) > [@adaher](#): > > Things might be different this cycle. The Republican race featured extremely crucial debate performances that skyrocketed candidates to the top or brought them low. I figured it was a quirk of the Republican race’s dynamics that led to debates being more important than usual, but maybe something’s just different now. Maybe debates are the most important event, at least if one candidate clearly bests the other. These two don’t jibe with each other, as women were more likely to say Obama won the debate. There would have to be another factor (possibly a confound which led to both Obama being perceived as the winner and less likely to receive a woman’s vote). [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-debate-polls/637115.md?page=2)