# Post-Mortes: how many fewer COVID deaths if Trump had shown true leadership at the beginning? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 8, 2021, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042 "2021-01-08T15:28:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/21 "2021-01-09T20:49:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To @Banquet_Bear - **Federal level of the U.S. in fact has not much more power over what the states do than the E.U. has over its member nations.** In times of better leadership there would be some deference to guidance supplied, especially when skillfully backed up by a president using the bully pulpit well, instead of undermining and defunding it, when he could not manipulate it … but the states are still able to make their own choices. …nonsense. Rubbish. Absolute tosh. Not even close. You know better than this. A political and economic union of 27 sovereign nations is in no way functionally or materially equivalent to the Federal government of a single sovereign nation. The President of the United States is not equivalent to the President of the European Council (who nobody knows) or the President of the European Commission (who nobody knows) or the President of the European Parliament (who nobody knows). Canada is a much better analog. You can compare how the states reacted to different Canadian provinces if you want. But you would be hard-pressed to compare South Dakota with France. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/22 "2021-01-09T21:15:52Z")
Interesting. I readily admit my ignorance of Canada’s set up. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > you would be hard-pressed to compare South Dakota with France Or South Dakota with New York. Or California with Florida. Thank you for your insights! Again sorry for hijacking from the point of the thread. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/23 "2021-01-09T21:30:40Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Or South Dakota with New York. Or California with Florida. …the thing is people **aren’t** using South Dakota and New York as analogs for how things would have been different if Trump weren’t in charge. The US and Canada are useful comparisons. The US and 27 independent sovereign nations is not. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/24 "2021-01-09T21:45:43Z")
> [@CoconutPete](#): > > There’s no way actually that the U.S. has as high a percentage of deaths in comparison to the rest of the world as had been previously claimed, I just wanted to add. > [@CoconutPete](#): > > But anyway Russia lied and their number of deaths were three times higher than previously thought. > > And if you believe the reported number of deaths and infections reported in China, well I’ve got a bridge I’d love to sell you. So we’re supposed to believe that Donald Trump is telling the truth and it’s every one else who’s lying to make him look bad? Just a tip for you: stay away from the free Flavor Aid they’re telling everyone to drink at next week’s meeting. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/25 "2021-01-09T22:47:41Z")
> [@CoconutPete](#): > > There’s no way actually that the U.S. has as high a percentage of deaths in comparison to the rest of the world as had been previously claimed, I just wanted to add. Well, even if you believe that Russia and China have had tens of thousands more COVID deaths than currently thought, that still leaves the US death rate astronomically high in comparison to most of the rest of the world. And that’s not counting the fact that the US, as one of the richest and most technologically advanced countries in the world, should have been able to do far better in containing the virus. I don’t think there’s any ducking the fact that a huge amount of our COVID toll has been brought upon ourselves with a combination of high-level incompetence and individual stupidity and anti-fact prejudice. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/26 "2021-01-09T22:50:14Z")
We have yet to see just how much red states have been lying about their infections, Florida is an obvious one, I have flagged that one up, and others have also noted a couple of other states that are likely to be worse. We really are not going to have any real idea of this for some time, Biden should certainly commission an inquiry into those figures and the timings in order to be able to develop protocols for possible future pandemics. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/27 "2021-01-09T23:23:35Z")
Those independent sovereign nations initially had unmonitored borders and just approved the Pfizer vaccine and rolled it out as one. EU v USA is quite a bit less silly than EU v USMCA. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/28 "2021-01-09T23:27:47Z")
…“quite a bit less silly” is not really a metric one can take seriously. EU vs the US is just plain silly. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/29 "2021-01-09T23:30:24Z")
It isn’t really. In many important ways for this discussion, the EU is functionally a single entity. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/30 "2021-01-09T23:38:50Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To @Banquet_Bear - Federal level of the U.S. in fact has not much more power over what the states do than the E.U. has over its member nations. In times of better leadership there would be some deference to guidance supplied, especially when skillfully backed up by a president using the bully pulpit well, instead of undermining and defunding it, when he could not manipulate it … but the states are still able to make their own choices. It’s not about power; it’s about leadership. If Trump had said “Everyone should wear masks, like I am, and if you go to my website, you can order MAGA masks in five different stylish designs, very classy. We’re going to kick China’s butt with these masks”, people would have listened. Likewise for social distancing, and hand-washing, and so on. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2021, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/31 "2021-01-09T23:42:10Z")
Well, I suppose that is an important distinction. The EU doesn’t have a “leader” that can set the tone in the same way. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/32 "2021-01-10T00:06:58Z")
No question. That is the premise of the thread as I understand it. There was not only a lack of leadership, there was weirdly _effective leadership_ pulling a large segment of Americans AWAY from doing simple low cost low risk interventions of highly likely great efficacy and undermining the work of the professionals. Instead of leading the world in a cooperative effective response, he polarized virtually all discussion, or eliminated discussion, in many countries. Instead many only perceived enemy camps. How many excess deaths has that resulted in? How many more will die because of it? (Best guess.) In America and worldwide? My personal early guess at what would happen was obviously very wrong. And not only because I assumed something other than an actively dysfunctional response. I think no argument that the number is lots. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/33 "2021-01-10T00:22:48Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > In many important ways for this discussion, the EU is functionally a single entity. …in many important ways for this discussion its important to point out that **the EU is functionally not a single entity.** ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/34 "2021-01-10T00:25:59Z")
Well, bravo on turning my words back at me. Super slick hard to do internet argument move. But like I said, they began vaccine approval and deployment as a unit. They also agreed on travel rules together. What have you got other than the word “sovereign”? ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/35 "2021-01-10T00:39:40Z")
Canada did a far better job with SARS than with Covid-19. Yes, they are very different. Both involved a lot of unknowns, though. This is Canada’s fourth pandemic so far this century. SARS largely affected Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and parts of China. Both were coronaviruses. SARS was deadlier but most people got very sick rather than being unknown spreaders. When SARS starting killing people, its origin and treatments were unknown. In Toronto, people panicked. The mayor would not visit Chinatown to settle nerves. Outside Toronto, it didn’t change lives at all. As a result of SARS, Ontario: - built decontamination areas in all Ontario emergency rooms - put “negative pressure” rooms in all ERs - started a system so large hospitals could safely take patients from smaller ones and not just say no due to fear of contagion - taught personnel how to don and doff PPE - ensure personnel had good fitting N95s, with mandatory forced mask-fitting procedures - established a proper stockpile of PPE - established a highly regarded system where experts would monitor outbreak conditions in other countries rather than rely on data from foreign governments - conducted much virology research, in particular on coronaviruses - came up with best practices for reducing aerosols and providing protection during high risk procedures like intubation - Ontario did contact tracing for SARS. At one point, 15000 Torontois were in forced quarantine. Outside TO, no one much knew or cared. Problematically, the appropriate PPE stockpile was destroyed due to storage and replacement costs, leading Canada to buy substandard equipment at high prices for Covid-19. The international monitoring group was stopped just a short time before Covid. China _today_ reports 33 new cases for a total of 3 deaths per 1m residents. Would independent monitoring have been helpful? What Canada did right was have politicians who avoided the words “hoax”, “I know better than experts” and “personal freedom”. Public health issues were not a test of political affiliation and people who don’t follow guidelines have little public sympathy. Next time they will hopefully maintain good preparation, including making vaccines in country as part of their licensing agreements. To really improve, they must make long term care homes not for profit. This means fighting tough battles. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/36 "2021-01-10T00:52:47Z")
Here was a key threshold failure by Trump: He refused to ask WHO for early testing kits that would have given us a big leg-up in tracing the disease when it first arrived on our shores. Those WHO tests were accurate and would have served us well in the critical interim period until we developed our own. > **[How testing failures allowed coronavirus to sweep the U.S.](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166)** > > The Trump administration’s decision to forgo a World Health Organization test and create its own had fateful consequences, experts say. The first test kits we developed here were defective. We lost more than a month while Trump/Pence et. al dithered. I think about this particular failure every time I look at the horrendous death numbers. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/37 "2021-01-10T00:55:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > … > There was not only a lack of leadership, there was weirdly _effective leadership_ pulling a large segment of Americans AWAY from doing simple low cost low risk interventions of highly likely great efficacy and undermining the work of the professionals. Instead of leading the world in a cooperative effective response, he polarized virtually all discussion, or eliminated discussion, in many countries. Instead many only perceived enemy camps. > … Today on the FM radio I heard a CDC PSA message. I don’t listen to much FM, so this may or may not be new. But it was new to me. The voice actor was male, 40-ish, sounded like somebody who would make an ad for a pick-up truck. Not quite as harsh / macho / Joe Friday as the Dodge RAM guy, but very clearly Western rural or something. Could easily be heard in a Budweiser or, better yet, a Coors ad. Anyhow the message was simple: Wear a mask, keep your distance, avoid crowds, and especially indoor crowds. Do it for you, and for your loved ones. It’s easy and it makes a big difference. To me by far the most important part of the message was the accent of the actor chosen to deliver the lines. And the simple short folksy sentences used. CDC is now actively aiming to undo what Trump did: lead his followers into a mass suicide pact. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/38 "2021-01-10T01:07:46Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > CDC is now actively aiming to undo what Trump did: lead his followers into a mass suicide pact. Am I remembering correctly that at one point trump wanted to shut down the CDC? (It’s hard to keep track of all his stupidities.) ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/39 "2021-01-10T01:25:13Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Well, bravo on turning my words back at me. Super slick hard to do internet argument move. …your words were wrong: especially in the context of this thread and in the context of the specific point we were discussing. > [@FigNorton](#): > > But like I said, they began vaccine approval and deployment as a unit. They also agreed on travel rules together. What have you got other than the word “sovereign”? What other word do I need other than sovereign? The vaccine approval and deployment is still subject to each member countries own processes and deployment measures. And each member country still controls its own borders. The EU isn’t a country. The EU isn’t responsible for any failures of individual member states to control the pandemic. The same can’t be said about the Federal government of the United States of America. If the US wanted to they **could** began vaccine approval and deployment as a unit with Mexico and Canada. They **could** agree on travel rules together. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2021, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042/40 "2021-01-10T01:29:58Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > What other word do I need other than sovereign? How that sovereignty is used in reality would be a start. Did any sovereign nation decline to accept the EMAs approval of the vaccine(s), for instance? ETA: You might be interested to know that the provinces of Quebec and Ontario had a short period of border control in Canada over covid. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-mortes-how-many-fewer-covid-deaths-if-trump-had-shown-true-leadership-at-the-beginning/930042.md?page=3)