# Post your eday 2010 predictions here! Now! Hop to it! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2010, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152 "2010-11-02T00:43:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/1 "2010-11-02T00:43:45Z")
Nationally: [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) predicts: Senate: Dem 51 GOP 48 Ind 1 House: Dem 202 GOP 216 Ties 17 I’m going predict the Dems do **slightly** better than expected, maybe pick up a majority of those ties, because I’ve seen cogent arguments here that the polls as currently designed don’t count a lot of younger persons, with cell phones but no land lines. Florida: [Senate seat:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=565581) Rubio by a plurality. [Governor:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=569853) Sink in a squeaker. [Litigation possible.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=583454) [Attorney General:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=574798) Based on [this,](http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/oct/30/gop-candidates-for-cabinet-positions-lead-in-lates/news-breaking/) Bondi. [Amendment 4 (requiring voter approval of changes to local land-use plans)](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=575776) Based on the link above, defeated. [Amendments 5 and 6 (anti-gerrymandering measures):](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=575770) Based on same, passes. [Tampa-Hillsborough transportation-improvements tax:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=575295) Based on [this,](http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/times-poll-transit-tax-favored-by-slight-majority-of-hillsborough-voters/1126888) passes. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/2 "2010-11-02T01:13:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’m going predict the Dems do **slightly** better than expected, maybe pick up a majority of those ties, because I’ve seen cogent arguments here that the polls as currently designed don’t count a lot of younger persons, with cell phones but no land lines. Didn’t we hear this same argument in 2004, with Kerry going to be swept to victory on the backs of the unpolled, young hipster cell phone users? Anyway: House: 196 Democrat, 239 GOP Senate: 50 Democrat senators plus one Democrat VP, 50 GOP senators Governors: 18 Democrats, 32 Republicans ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/3 "2010-11-02T01:17:27Z")
I predict that [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) is, as usual, too optimistic when it comes to how democrats will do. For fun I’ll predict that the GOP takes the Senate by less than 3 seats, and the House by somewhere around 20. ---
**Author:** ![Stuffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@Stuffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stuffy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/4 "2010-11-02T01:19:45Z")
I think the dems will hold both houses. I too find the polling suspect not just because of cell phones, but the questions themselves. I’ve read too many articles that reveal a disconnect between the generic ballot and actual candidates. The GOP seems to do well on the Generic Ballot, but when cadidates are compared head to head, the much ballyhooed GOP tsunami vanishes. To this I will add the caveat that this opinion is worth every penny you paid for it. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/5 "2010-11-02T01:26:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) predicts: > > Senate: > Dem 51 > GOP 48 > Ind 1 He’s getting really sloppy in the past year or so. Still entertaining, but sloppy. There are two independents in the Senate, and neither of them is up for election this year. Plus he’s constantly putting the CO-04 race (which Markey will probably lose–sigh) (There! There’s a prediction.) as CA-04. That said, I don’t think he’s too far off. Though I won’t be surprised if Colorado goes for Bennet, which’ll add a Senate seat for the Dems. I will be surprised if Reid wins. Illinois is still a tossup. The House will go Republican, and whatever remnant of Blue Dogs are left will change parties. Missouri: Everybody or every thing that I voted for will lose, and everybody or everything that I voted against will win. Except maybe Charlie Dooley for St. Louis County executive and the puppy mill bill. Blunt wins the Senate seat handily, and the state legislature remains resoundingly Republican. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/6 "2010-11-02T01:29:08Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Didn’t we hear this same argument in 2004, with Kerry going to be swept to victory on the backs of the unpolled, young hipster cell phone users? I’d love to see a cite that suggests that a significant number of the young unpolled cellphone-only hipsters actually vote in mid-term elections. A whole bunch of articles from last month suggest that they don’t/won’t. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/7 "2010-11-02T01:29:36Z")
House: 194 Democrat, 241 GOP Senate: 49 Democrat, 49 GOP, 2 Ind Governors: 17 Democrats, 33 Republicans ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/8 "2010-11-02T01:32:34Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Didn’t we hear this same argument in 2004, with Kerry going to be swept to victory on the backs of the unpolled, young hipster cell phone users? Yes, we did. This year we’re hearing a lot about how to predict the election by early voting turnout. Both have yet to be borne out by actual results. > [@](#): > > Senate: 50 Democrat senators plus one Democrat VP, 50 GOP senators West Virginia? ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/9 "2010-11-02T01:41:37Z")
House: 189 Democrats, 246 Republicans. Senate: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents. Governors: 17 Democrats, 33 Republicans. I’ll withhold editorial comment. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/10 "2010-11-02T02:03:11Z")
house: dems 213 reps 222 senate: dems 52 reps 48 governors dems 20 reps 30 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/11 "2010-11-02T02:04:28Z")
Any state-level predictions? ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/12 "2010-11-02T02:14:32Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Any state-level predictions? You mean as in State races or issues? Kansas - Stephen Six, a Democrat, will be one of the few Democrats who maintains office as the State AG. - Brownback will be governor by a 63-37 margin. - The Constitutional Amendment in Kansas, detailing a specific individual right to keep and bear arms for personal self-defense, will pass by about a 75-25 margin. Missouri - The earnings tax vote (allowing cities under earnings taxes now to vote to continue or reject them) will pass by a 55-45 margin. - The anti-puppy mill referendum will pass by a 72-28 margin. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/13 "2010-11-02T02:26:17Z")
> [@Una\_Persson](#): > > Missouri > > - The earnings tax vote (allowing cities under earnings taxes now to vote to continue or reject them) will pass by a 55-45 margin. Forcing those two cities to vote on it every five years, forever, and once they are ever voted against, forever barring a vote that would reinstitute the earnings tax, and forever barring all but those two cities from ever voting to have one. I give it about 64.6 percent for. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/14 "2010-11-02T02:31:36Z")
At least one assassination. Not calling who. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/15 "2010-11-02T02:47:07Z")
What does Nate Silver at 538 say? You can pretty much bank on his predictions. He calls the Senate 52-48. So that’s what it will probably be. He calls the House 233-202, so it’ll be about that. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/16 "2010-11-02T03:10:04Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Forcing those two cities to vote on it every five years, forever, and once they are ever voted against, forever barring a vote that would reinstitute the earnings tax, and forever barring all but those two cities from ever voting to have one. That’s the one. Sounds great to me; we in Kansas who dare to work in KCMO have to pay it and we see no real benefit from it. If KCMO and St. Louis can do what 99% of the rest of the cities in the country do, and raise revenue via sales taxes and mill levies. ---
**Author:** ![CyclopticXander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/59ef9b/32.png) [@CyclopticXander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyclopticXander)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/17 "2010-11-02T03:17:36Z")
Here are my senate predictions on the ones that are in any way in question. Ayotte, Blumenthal, Toomey, Raese, Rubio, Vitter, Coons, Paul, Portman, Coats, Kirk, Johnson, Blunt, Buck, Angle, Boxer, Murray, Miller I’m pretty darn confident in this list. If I’m wrong on any I imagine they would be in WV where Manchin is still in the game, WA where Rossi actually ahead in some polls, or AK where there are a myriad of unpredictable factors that could conceivably result in any of the three candidates winning. I’ll place the house at 235-200, although I’m considerably less confident on this. It would take more than 10 seats difference on either side of that figure to really surprise me. California prop 19 will lose. I’d bet the farm on that. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/18 "2010-11-02T03:23:31Z")
> [@Una\_Persson](#): > > That’s the one. Sounds great to me; we in Kansas who dare to work in KCMO have to pay it and we see no real benefit from it. If KCMO and St. Louis can do what 99% of the rest of the cities in the country do, and raise revenue via sales taxes and mill levies. Sales taxes still hit those who just shop there. Why do you think that’s an advantage? ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/19 "2010-11-02T03:49:44Z")
> [@CyclopticXander](#): > > Here are my senate predictions on the ones that are in any way in question. > > Ayotte, Blumenthal, Toomey, Raese, Rubio, Vitter, Coons, Paul, Portman, Coats, Kirk, Johnson, Blunt, Buck, Angle, Boxer, Murray, Miller > > I’m pretty darn confident in this list. Ayotte has a 17% lead, so I’d be damn surprised if you’re wrong about that one. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/20 "2010-11-02T04:04:03Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Sales taxes still hit those who just shop there. Why do you think that’s an advantage? Because working adults can choose where we shop much easier than we can choose where we work. And there’s really nothing unique in KCMO that requires shopping there in the first place. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152.md?page=2)