# Post your eday 2010 predictions here! Now! Hop to it! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2010, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152 "2010-11-02T00:43:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/41 "2010-11-02T21:31:15Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > He also emphasizes that the error bars are huge, so “about that” has a heck of a lot of leeway. I don’t understand why people have such a massive woody for Silver - he is no better or worse than anyone else I see, and he puts reasonable error bars on his predictions so it’s easy to say he’s “right on the money.” Put +/- 10% on all my predictions, then lay your roses at my feet tomorrow instead. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/42 "2010-11-02T21:52:19Z")
> [@Una\_Persson](#): > > I don’t understand why people have such a massive woody for Silver - he is no better or worse than anyone else I see, and he puts reasonable error bars on his predictions so it’s easy to say he’s “right on the money.” Put +/- 10% on all my predictions, then lay your roses at my feet tomorrow instead. I like him just because he shows his work. It appeals to the engineer/mathematician in me. The errors bars help too - they always generate a nice woody. And the charts… oh the charts… did you see his “following the election” guide for tonight? [Good stuff](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/3225/). Also, I’m a huge baseball fan, and his work there was pretty revolutionary. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/43 "2010-11-02T22:06:13Z")
The great thing about Silver is that he boils down the results of what everyone else is doing. The best three sources of info leading up to an election, from my perspective, are Silver’s blog, RCP, and Intrade. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/44 "2010-11-02T23:20:20Z")
Personally, I have a lot more trust for someone who admits that he has error bars, and says up front what they are. Looking confident is not always a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2010, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/45 "2010-11-02T23:26:21Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > The great thing about Silver is that he boils down the results of what everyone else is doing. > > The best three sources of info leading up to an election, from my perspective, are Silver’s blog, RCP, and Intrade. I use RealClearPolitics - is that what you mean by RCP? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/46 "2010-11-03T00:12:03Z")
> [@SpartanDC](#): > > [QUOTE=Kolak of Twilo] > Illinois - Republicans take the Senate seat and Governor by substantial margins. I don’t think either of those races have been in play for weeks. Everything I’ve seen indicates that IL Sen is the purest toss-up of the cycle. Both candidates have very, very tepid support. Personally, I think the Dems’ superior GOTV operation puts Giannoulias over the top. ETA: Though I now see that Nate Silver has Kirk as a pretty solid favorite. Hmm… [/QUOTE] And I haven’t seen anything to convince me this is a tossup. Yeah, there is pretty tepid support here in Illinois for both guys but from what I’ve seen and heard around here more people are turned off by Giannoulias and the family bank scandal than the fact Kirk is a big fat liar about his military record. Nate Silver/538 have had Kirk as the favorite for weeks now and the polls have had Kirk in the lead pretty consistently. The fact he is anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage will only serve to bring voters out in droves downstate. I think part of the reason this is seen as a toss-up is because this is Obama’s old seat and there seem to be a lot of people out there buying into the myth Illinois is a solid blue state. Sorry, but it is very, very purple here. The Dems have never been guaranteed victory in statewide races in Illinois. Of course, I would like nothing more than to be proven wrong about this tonight but I think the chances of that happening are slim to none. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/47 "2010-11-03T02:39:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > As a general rule, high turnout is better for the Dems. Cite? That’s the exact opposite of everything I’ve ever heard about which party tends to have higher turnout rates. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/48 "2010-11-03T02:41:19Z")
I think that the biggest reason that Illinois has been considered a tossup is that the polling showed an unusually large number of undecideds. As the undecideds go, so will go the race, and nobody really knew which way that would be. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/49 "2010-11-03T16:08:52Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Predictions: > > The Dems hold on to the House by the tinyest of margins, or lose it by a seat or two. They keep hold of the Senate. > > CA- Brown and Boxer win. Three out of four ain’t bad. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/50 "2010-11-03T16:11:51Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Cite? That’s the exact opposite of everything I’ve ever heard about which party tends to have higher turnout rates. I believe the thinking is that Republicans normally turn out to vote for their candidates for each election anyway. If there is a generic bump in turnout rates, it _usually_ means that more Democrat voters have turned out, along with the usual number of Republican voters. No cite for any of this, sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/51 "2010-11-03T16:58:25Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Didn’t we hear this same argument in 2004, with Kerry going to be swept to victory on the backs of the unpolled, young hipster cell phone users? > > Anyway: > > House: 196 Democrat, 239 GOP Right now it looks like 239 is sewed up for the GOP, with the Democrats at 185 and 11 seats still undecided. This is a win for me. > [@](#): > > Senate: 50 Democrat senators plus one Democrat VP, 50 GOP senators Right now, it’s 51 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 3 up in the air. Close but no cigar. > [@](#): > > Governors: 18 Democrats, 32 Republicans Republicans 27, Democrats 15, 7 undecided, 1 Independent (Lincoln Chaffee (RI)). Undecided Gubernatorial Races: Illinois: will go D Minn: will go D Vermont: pick 'em Maine: will go R Conn: will go R Ore: will go R Alaska: will go R So on this pick, I’ll give myself a conditional cigar. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2010, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152/52 "2010-11-03T17:37:48Z")
And on my prediction, Rehberg did indeed do worse than projected, but not by very much, and can probably be accounted for by the scarcity of polling. So I can at least take small comfort in the fact that my fellow Montanans can remember names after all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/post-your-eday-2010-predictions-here-now-hop-to-it/559152.md?page=2)