# Potomac Primaries **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 13, 2008, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375 "2008-02-13T00:08:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/1 "2008-02-13T00:08:52Z")
McCain and Huckabee too close to call. Obama wiping the floor with Hillary. Developing… ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/2 "2008-02-13T00:15:11Z")
Virginia called for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/3 "2008-02-13T00:15:54Z")
While I don’t count Hillary out I would say that Obama is going to take this thing. He’s won Virgina from what I was reading and looks poised to take a lot of the other high delegate states as well. Was reading [this](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/11/monday.analysis/index.html) on CNN…I’d say Hillary is in serious trouble and maybe should start looking for ways to be part of an Obama presidency at this point… -XT ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/4 "2008-02-13T00:16:42Z")
It seems really premature for CNN to call VA for Obama, 251-236. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/5 "2008-02-13T00:19:38Z")
From [AP](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/campaign_rdp;_ylt=AgdTTEwXfFcGMlDmWCcy_DOs0NUE) (about Virginia): > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama won the Virginia primary Tuesday night and reached out for victories in nearby Maryland and the District of Columbia, determined to erode or even erase Hillary Rodham Clinton’s delegate lead in the Democratic presidential race. > > Obama’s triumph made it six straight over Clinton, the former first lady, now struggling to keep up in a race she once commanded. > > The Associated Press made its call based on surveys of voters as they left the polls . -XT ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/6 "2008-02-13T00:20:23Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Carrot] It seems really premature for CNN to call VA for Obama, 251-236. [/QUOTE] They have exit polling. Obama must be wiping the floor if they’ll call t before they see how closely it sticks to reality. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/7 "2008-02-13T00:21:50Z")
Here is [CNN’s](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/12/potomac.primaries/index.html) article…it really isn’t that close CC. They are saying 51/48…I don’t think that is going to change much… -XT ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/8 "2008-02-13T00:23:23Z")
[QUOTE=Captain Carrot] It seems really premature for CNN to call VA for Obama, 251-236. [/QUOTE] Fox and MSNBC have called it too. The exit polls are indicating a huge lead for Obama , so that might have something to do with it. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/9 "2008-02-13T00:25:13Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Here is [CNN’s](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/12/potomac.primaries/index.html) article…it really isn’t that close CC. They are saying 51/48…I don’t think that is going to change much… -XT [/QUOTE] 56-43 now with 1% in. Of course, anything can happen with the other 99% but I don’t think we’ll be surprised tonight. Edit: 61-38 now… ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/10 "2008-02-13T00:48:53Z")
The latest poll is 61-38, Obama. I guess the other 1% voted for me. Of course, it’s not the electoral college. A lead of 13% in Virginia would be outweighed by Clinton winning Texas by what, 4%? 5 at most. The issue here is not whether Obama wins these primaries, which everybody in the world including Hillary Clinton expected him to, but the effect it will have on their campaigns. Some will say this will simply sink the Clinton boat even more; others will say she has time to regroup and get her ducks in a row before Texas and Ohio. What will happen? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/11 "2008-02-13T00:52:47Z")
Eight minutes until Maryland and DC close. I figure both of those will go Obama’s way as well. Clinton had better try to do SOMETHING in Wisconsin or Hawaii just to stem the tide. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/12 "2008-02-13T00:54:51Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] What will happen? [/QUOTE] Obama’s campaign will get more campaign contributions and the money will continue to pour in…while Clinton will continue to struggle for funding. Money equals life in these races. Result…Obama wins and goes on to take the nomination. And probably the presidency unless McCain can somehow convince the center AND the right of his own party that he is at the same time conservative enough but not TOO conservative. :dubious: -XT ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/13 "2008-02-13T00:55:10Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] The latest poll is 61-38, Obama. I guess the other 1% voted for me. Of course, it’s not the electoral college. A lead of 13% in Virginia would be outweighed by Clinton winning Texas by what, 4%? 5 at most. [/QUOTE] Ironically, I was reading an article today which suggests that Clinton can win Texas by 5% and still come out with less Texas delegates than Obama due to the way they’re awarded and which districts Obama is most likely to win. I don’t say that as a “Yay! Obama!” thing but it made me chuckle given your example. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/14 "2008-02-13T00:58:31Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] The latest poll is 61-38, Obama. I guess the other 1% voted for me. Of course, it’s not the electoral college. A lead of 13% in Virginia would be outweighed by Clinton winning Texas by what, 4%? 5 at most. The issue here is not whether Obama wins these primaries, which everybody in the world including Hillary Clinton expected him to, but the effect it will have on their campaigns. Some will say this will simply sink the Clinton boat even more; others will say she has time to regroup and get her ducks in a row before Texas and Ohio. What will happen? [/QUOTE] Assuming a simple proportional split, and using the gap as I post this (about 25%), it’d be 51 delegates for Obama, 22 for Clinton, net 29 for Obama. If Texas could be as simple (and it’s not, but let’s say it is for the sake of argument), a 6% win (so 53-47 for Clinton) would be 102 Clinton, 91 Obama, net 11 Clinton. Clinton would have to win by double-digits just to balance out Virginia, much less the other states. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/15 "2008-02-13T01:00:28Z")
And MSNBC just called DC for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/16 "2008-02-13T01:01:41Z")
And Maryland will be open until 9:30. This one’s gonna take a while, boys. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/17 "2008-02-13T01:17:09Z")
[QUOTE=asterion] And MSNBC just called DC for Obama. [/QUOTE] He must have one hell of a lead in exit polling for them to call that with 0% of the districts in. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/18 "2008-02-13T01:43:38Z")
NBC and Fox are calling VA for McCain. I suspect the other networks are doing so as well, but I was only watching those two. Obama is doing very well-- Hillary must be shaking in her boots, and Bill must be making some furious phone calls… ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/19 "2008-02-13T01:47:50Z")
[QUOTE=appleciders] He must have one hell of a lead in exit polling for them to call that with 0% of the districts in. [/QUOTE] It’s 60 some percent black. You could have called DC for Obama at 8 this morning. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2008, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375/20 "2008-02-13T01:53:16Z")
CNN did call it for McCain a few minutes ago. It’s a win he needed, but this was very close. I have to disagree with people who say it’s a good thing for McCain that Huckabee is still in the race. I think the fact that he’s doing so well, even though he can’t win, shows a big chunk of the GOP base just is not comfortable with McCain, and every time he wins or runs close it reminds people of that. CNN made it sound like the McCain camp was expecting to win by more than 2 percent in Virginia, too. It’d be too dramatic to call it a pyrrhic victory, but it’s not a particularly encouraging one for them. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/potomac-primaries/437375.md?page=2)