# Predict future honorary Oscar winners **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [March 6, 2008, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302 "2008-03-06T07:02:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![bouv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bc8723/32.png) [@bouv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bouv)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/1 "2008-03-06T07:02:42Z")
There are plenty of well known and respected actors, directors, writers, etc… that are either perpetually nominated, but never win, or aren’t even nominated, yet still earn praise for their roles/movies. So…who do you think is guaranteed to nab themselves a fake Oscar in the next five to fifteen years? My picks: Harrison Ford. He’s a good actor, but never has really deep roles. Han Solo, Jack Ryan, Indiana Jones, etc…Memorable, certainly, but not Oscar worthy. He has just one nomination for _Witness._ Assuming he keeps up the trend of mediocre to good action movies with the occasional mediocre drama thrown in, he’s a shoe in for an honorary Oscar by 2015. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/2 "2008-03-06T07:51:09Z")
Steve Jobs/Pixar for technical innovation. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/3 "2008-03-06T14:46:36Z")
That sound guy who never ever wins. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/4 "2008-03-06T17:47:03Z")
[QUOTE=Paul in Saudi] Steve Jobs/Pixar for technical innovation. [/QUOTE] Pixar received an honorary Oscar for just that for _Toy Story_. Steve Jobs is not an artist. He won’t get one. Harrison Ford is an icon, but not a particularly prolific or important actor. I seriously doubt he’ll get one either. George Lucas is more likely, since he’s never won one. He does, however, have a Thalberg, and since his creative output (both in distinction and in volume) is largely in a producing capacity, that may be seen as sufficient. Honorary Oscars tend to go to directors with a high artistic profile never recognized by the Academy, or really good actors who’ve received a ton of nominations and never won, or who’ve lived long enough to merit “legendary status”. The longevity thing is hard to predict, but the individuals with the most career nominations who’ve still never won include Glenn Close, Sigourney Weaver, Julianne Moore. I predict that if none of them ever win, the one who survives the longest will take one. Similarly (but less urgently, because of the gender thing) are Ed Harris and Jeff Bridges. That said, I predict that David Lynch is probably the surest bet amongst American directors–him and Spike Lee. Terence Malick hasn’t quite made enough movies to merit it yet. If David Cronenberg continues on the roll he’s on (higher-profile, Academy-recognized, non-horror films), his reputation will be overdue for reevaluation. Still, he’s a definite longshot. Ridley Scott is also an outside chance (though he hasn’t received the same critical cred the others have). They have been known to give individuals Honorary Oscars after receiving a competitive one, so I’d say Scorsese is the most likely candidate here. There was a time when legendary comedians (Fields, the Marxes, Chaplin, Keaton) got recognized, but I think that era’s over. I can’t think of anyone who wouldn’t raise eyebrows now (the closest would be Steve Martin, but most of his films are total crap nowadays). Morricone was definitely the most overdue amongst the craftsmen/“technician”-types; I can’t think of another composer who’s in the same league who hasn’t won at least once. This year’s Honorary winner (Art Director Robert F. Boyle) was also a good choice. I’d say the top cinematographer who’s still Oscar-less is Gordon Willis (he wasn’t even nominated for the first two _Godfather_ films). At some point, Roger Deakins & Caleb Deschanel may be seen as overdue, too, if they don’t eventually win. I really do believe the “the sound guy” (20-time loser Kevin O’Connell) will win one someday (he’s only 50, so probably has quite a few more nods ahead of him). They also periodically give Honorary Oscars to important international figures. Godard is probably at the top of the list, except he wouldn’t come and probably mock the Academy for its choice. Rohmer would be a fantastic choice (he turns 88 next month), but he may be too obscure. Even more deserving (and older, at 99, but even more obscure) is Portuguese Manoel de Oliveira. Greek Theo Angelopoulos is also richly deserving, but probably won’t make the cut. Among foreign actors, I’d say the two front-runners are Bergman vets Max von Sydow and Liv Ullmann–both, again, richly deserving, and both previous Oscar-losers, too. And I’ve said it over and over, but Roger Corman is long, long, long overdue for a Thalberg award. With some of the more interesting choices in the last few years amongst the Honorary honorees, I think he has a pretty good shot at it, if they’re not too late (they don’t award people posthumously, and he’s 82 next month). ---
**Author:** ![Zsofia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7bcc69/32.png) [@Zsofia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zsofia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/5 "2008-03-06T18:53:23Z")
If Tilda Swinton lives long enough, she at least _ought_ to get one. ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/6 "2008-03-07T01:36:31Z")
[QUOTE=Zsofia] If Tilda Swinton lives long enough, she at least _ought_ to get one. [/QUOTE] I guarantee you she’ll have at least one real Oscar before she dies 😉 . ---
**Author:** ![thwartme](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@thwartme](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thwartme)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/7 "2008-03-07T01:40:20Z")
Wait … we can pick them? Awesome. I pick me. It’ll help me finally break out of the dinner theatre circuit. thwartme ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/8 "2008-03-07T01:49:41Z")
Clint Eastwood ---
**Author:** ![bouv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bc8723/32.png) [@bouv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bouv)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/9 "2008-03-07T02:24:55Z")
[QUOTE=lissener] Clint Eastwood [/QUOTE] He has several. > [@](#): > > He has won Academy Awards five times - twice each as Best Director and as producer of the Best Picture; he received the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award in 1995. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/10 "2008-03-07T02:45:17Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] Pixar received an honorary Oscar for just that for _Toy Story_. Steve Jobs is not an artist. He won’t get one. Harrison Ford is an icon, but not a particularly prolific or important actor. I seriously doubt he’ll get one either. [/QUOTE] I will bet $1000 Ford at least gets a Thalberg (which the OP might have been thinking of) unless he wins a real one, in the next 25 years, unless he dies first. An honorary Oscar is at least a 70% likelihood. > [@](#): > > The longevity thing is hard to predict, but the individuals with the most career nominations who’ve still never won include Glenn Close, Sigourney Weaver, Julianne Moore. Amazingly, Kate Winslet, who’s only 32, actually has more nominations than Weaver (3) or Moore (4) and is tied with Close with 5. (She is the youngest actress to receive a second nomination, third, fourth, and fifth.) Interestingly, Close hasn’t been up for one in 19 years. Winslet is still young enough to get more chances, I suppose. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2008, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/11 "2008-03-07T05:12:32Z")
Honorary awards only go to people who’ve made a large number of acclaimed. respected films but who have never won an Oscar and are never likely to. Apart from Harrison Ford, who’s already been mentioned, very few highly popular performers or filmmakers fall into this category. But since the Oscars have pretty much turned into the Indie Spirit awards anyway, that’s not a problem. Some people I could see receiving an honorary award: Pedro Almodovar Jeff Bridges Jim Carrey Albert Finney Harrison Ford (already mentioned) Spike Lee (already mentioned) Sidney Lumet David Lynch (already mentioned) Steve Martin Bill Murray Liv Ullman Peter Weir ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-future-honorary-oscar-winners/440302/12 "2008-03-08T01:11:01Z")
[QUOTE=astorian] Honorary awards only go to people who’ve made a large number of acclaimed. respected films but who have never won an Oscar and are never likely to. Apart from Harrison Ford, who’s already been mentioned, very few highly popular performers or filmmakers fall into this category. But since the Oscars have pretty much turned into the Indie Spirit awards anyway, that’s not a problem. Some people I could see receiving an honorary award: Pedro Almodovar Jeff Bridges Jim Carrey Albert Finney Harrison Ford (already mentioned) Spike Lee (already mentioned) Sidney Lumet David Lynch (already mentioned) Steve Martin Bill Murray Liv Ullman Peter Weir [/QUOTE] Almodovar has a couple, so I don’t think they’ll need to award him more. Finney’s a good choice, except he’s never attended any of the ceremonies when he was a nominee, so he may not really care much one way or the other. Bridges, Ullmann, and Martin I already mentioned also, and Lumet actually won an Honorary Oscar a year or two ago. Carrey is really unlikely–he’s taken his career in some interesting directions, but he’ll have to get into writing and directing before he is seen as meriting the award (after all, Jerry Lewis had an important, formal behind-the-scenes role in many of his films, and has enough retrospective critical cred to make him viable, but I think he would still be a tough sell). Bill Murray’s a truly interesting choice, and Weir’s an even more interesting (and perfectly appropriate one), but I suspect both would still be long shots. **RickJay** , I would gladly bet you $1000 that Ford will never, ever, ever win the Thalberg (primarily because the Thalberg exclusively goes to producers or producer/directors). A regular Honorary Oscar? Maybe–I won’t take that bet, at least.