# Predict: Likelihood Palin will show for the debate? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 30, 2008, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866 "2008-09-30T16:17:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/61 "2008-09-30T19:15:28Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And when you’re slumped in your corner, bleeding profusely and muttering \*“No mas. No mas!”, \*then you’ve _really_ got them on the run… It’s only a flesh wound. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/62 "2008-09-30T19:25:50Z")
> [@tdn](#): > > It’s only a flesh wound. Never understood that. Aren’t they all, pretty much? ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/63 "2008-09-30T19:30:09Z")
My spread: 50%: She is able to parrot her talking points with only a few head-scratchers. Biden will win on the merits, but Palin’s performance will be sufficiently competent to make McCain’s supporters and a few GOP-leaning swing voters say, “Good enough.” 20%: She just looks awful, and no amount of spin can save her. The best the pundits can do over the next few days is hope that it didn’t hurt McCain’s chances too badly and speculate about how she could get off the ticket. 15%: She looks awful, but in the middle of an otherwise eloquent answer Biden says something stupid. The spin is that both candidates did poorly. 10%: Palin is reasonably competent, but she wins, either because she got off a few memorable zingers or because Biden looked bad. 4%: Family emergency forces her to fly home to Alaska, and the busy campaign season means it’s unlikely they’ll be able to reschedule the debate. 1%: Wildcard ---
**Author:** ![Baldwin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baldwin/32/7264_2.png) [@Baldwin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baldwin)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/64 "2008-09-30T19:30:31Z")
> [@eleanorigby](#): > > I think after her appearance with Katie and John she’s dead meat in the water, but she’ll show for the debate. I do like that. If she drops out, we can say, > [@MST3K](#): > > So long, Chum! ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/65 "2008-09-30T19:40:29Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > It seems to me that I give as much credit to McCain and Palin as most of the Usual Suspects do to Obama and Biden. Thanks. I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive or push you into a comparison of posters and candidates (ETA not that I’m accusing you of being defensive). But it sounds like you’re saying that, like some posters here regarding Obama, you don’t think M/P put much of a spin on things, and that they are essentially honest in their pronouncements with scant traces of puffery. That, say, when McCain said he was suspending his campaign he really meant it – the cackles from the sidelines notwithstanding, he of course couldn’t slip into the fourth dimension but his focus really did shift, and it wasn’t politically motivated. Maybe not the best example, but that’s what I meant about credulity. I’m sure if Obama had said the same thing, despite cat calls to the contrary or suggestions of disingenuousness, many posters would believe him. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaijon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/66 "2008-09-30T19:41:34Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > You spin so hard to make Palin not seem utterly unqualified for the position she is nominated for, it taints almost any other argument you’d make. Now that’s some quality bigotry. I think your inability to admit that she might have even the smallest, eensy-teeniest shred of qualification speaks volumes about your rationality. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/67 "2008-09-30T19:55:55Z")
I find it interesting that the debate is on before Survivor. Does anyone but me suspect a surprise development as Palin gets voted off the island? If that isn’t the case, I am going to go with **DoctorJ** ’s 15%. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/68 "2008-09-30T19:56:07Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#): > > Now that’s some quality bigotry. I think your inability to admit that she might have even the smallest, eensy-teeniest shred of qualification speaks volumes about your rationality. Bigotry? I’m basing my opinion on her performance - things that have come right out of her mouth, not on her race, sex, religion, shoe size or preference in breakfast cereals. Once I hear some proof out of her that she’s not totally over her head, I’ll change my tune. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/69 "2008-09-30T20:01:04Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Thanks. > > I didn’t mean to put you on the defensive or push you into a comparison of posters and candidates (ETA not that I’m accusing you of being defensive). But it sounds like you’re saying that, like some posters here regarding Obama, you don’t think M/P put much of a spin on things, and that they are essentially honest in their pronouncements with scant traces of puffery. That, say, when McCain said he was suspending his campaign he really meant it – the cackles from the sidelines notwithstanding, he of course couldn’t slip into the fourth dimension but his focus really did shift, and it wasn’t politically motivated. Maybe not the best example, but that’s what I meant about credulity. I’m sure if Obama had said the same thing, despite cat calls to the contrary or suggestions of disingenuousness, many posters would believe him. That’s not too far off. McCain has a reputation as a maverick - he does the unexpected more than most politicians do. I don’t believe he did it because he was scared to debate Obama - he showed up, after all, and did perfectly well with as much preparation as he had. Although it probably would not have made any difference to the current bail out bill in Washington if he had not proceeded as he did. So, no matter what your spin on the whole thing, it would correct to say that McCain tried something, and it didn’t work. If he did it solely for political advantage, that didn’t work. If he did it only to get the bill passed, it didn’t pass. But I think that for most long-term politicians, the distinction between the political and the principled is not very useful. McCain wants to be President, and no doubt “how will this play in Peoria?” was part of the consideration beforehand. But no doubt “we gotta get this damn bill passed” was also part of it. It’s no different for Obama - no doubt he thought about how it would look to the voters if he insisted on going ahead with the debate. And the spin he put on it at the end - 'I can do more than one thing at a time" or the equivalent - no doubt was chosen as much for its political effect as anything else. But this whole notion that Palin is afraid to debate Biden, or that she is in imminent danger of being dropped from the ticket, is just wishful thinking from the boobs on the left. She’ll show up, both she and Biden will regurgitate their talking points - and the Usual Suspects will fall all over themselves condemning every word she said (and probably many that she did not) - and simply ignoring Biden blunders of any sort up to and including scratching his ass onstage. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![eleanorigby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ee7513/32.png) [@eleanorigby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eleanorigby)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/70 "2008-09-30T20:08:18Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > But to her “losing her poise” is a shift into “adorable.” The bitter taste in viewers’ mouths would be from all of the saccharine. And that can cause cancer! :eek: [QUOTE= Luci] > [@](#): > > Originally Posted by **tdn** > It’s only a flesh wound. Never understood that. Aren’t they all, pretty much? [/QUOTE] 😃 Yep, pretty much… ---
**Author:** ![tdn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/94ad74/32.png) [@tdn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tdn)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/71 "2008-09-30T20:13:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Never understood that. Aren’t they all, pretty much? Broken bones aren’t. Neither are deep infectious wounds. Like that has anything to do with this thread. ---
**Author:** ![neutron\_star](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/51bf81/32.png) [@neutron\_star](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/neutron_star)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/72 "2008-09-30T20:22:51Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Gonna have to let somebody else figure this out, people here at work are looking at me very strangely. You can flip 'em, but they roll right back to their old place as soon as you let go. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/73 "2008-09-30T20:29:57Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I heard she’s been gaining foreign policy experience by eating at the International House of Pancakes. Nah, now she’s talked to world leaders about their kids for fifteen minutes. That’s a big boost in experience for her. And I’m sure she’ll show. Luckily for us. The cardboard cut out would make more sense. I’m sure she’ll be spouting talking points - the question is whether she can access the correct point for a question. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/74 "2008-09-30T20:34:38Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] And I’m sure she’ll show. Luckily for us. The cardboard cut out would make more sense. I’m sure she’ll be spouting talking points - the question is whether she can access the correct point for a question. [/QUOTE] 😛 Too be sure. No doubt Biden won’t spout a single talking point, but instead give reasoned and spontaneous (and focused and cogent) answers to all questions! And monkeys will probably fly out of his ass too! -XT ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/75 "2008-09-30T20:41:46Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Nah, now she’s talked to world leaders about their kids for fifteen minutes. That’s a big boost in experience for her. > > And I’m sure she’ll show. Luckily for us. The cardboard cut out would make more sense. I’m sure she’ll be spouting talking points - the question is whether she can access the correct point for a question. I just had an I Love Lucy Flashback… “To scrape the barnacles from her hull!” ---
**Author:** ![Sinaijon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Sinaijon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaijon)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/76 "2008-09-30T20:43:44Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > Once I hear some proof out of her that she’s not totally over her head, I’ll change my tune. And you never will, because, as you just stated, you discount anything anybody ever says in her defense. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/77 "2008-09-30T20:46:21Z")
> [@Sinaijon](#): > > And you never will, because, as you just stated, you discount anything anybody ever says in her defense. Well…yeah? Look at what he said: > [@Jack Batty](#): > > Once I hear some proof **out of her** I could say she’s a brilliant mind with the potential for a Nobel Peace Prize, but that wouldn’t make it true. She’s got to prove it herself. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/78 "2008-09-30T21:02:07Z")
**Shodan** : Again, thanks. Things get a bit frothy in the pit and it often spills over to GD in a “well, if you’re not going to admit any weakness or sign of sillyness or even a hit of pragmatism, neither am I”. Kind of polarizing, but I’ll take the most rabid partizan here over almost any typical bunch at other (both right and left) message boards. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/79 "2008-09-30T21:05:52Z")
Likewise. Nice to talk to you. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866/80 "2008-09-30T22:00:08Z")
and their > [@elucidator](#): > > Is my left nut _always_ my left nut, or do they sort of roll around in there? Always happy to help out with these knotty political questions. Your left nut is always your left nut. If not, you have a medical condition known as a torsion, which happens when your nuts and sundry intertubes get all tangled. The blood supply may be cut off to one or both nuts, and they may start to die, and it will be EXTREMELY painful. Yes, it happened to me… Oh, yeah, Palin will show up. I hope she cries. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-likelihood-palin-will-show-for-the-debate/465866.md?page=5)