# Predict the DOW

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [October 14, 2015, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630 "2015-10-14T14:20:46Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 7\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/1 "2015-10-14T14:20:46Z")

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If you haven’t been keeping up, check out [Today’s Dow.](http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#%7B%22range%22:%226mo%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true%7D)

Which do you think will happen first:

A) Dow climbs to 18,000  
B) Dow drops to 15,000  
C) We get hit by an asteroid  
D) The sun Supernovas  
E) Jesus comes back

Poll to follow…

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**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/2 "2015-10-14T21:52:10Z")

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It’s more or less peaked. The current up cycle is ending.

I don’t think the downturn will be major, we will likely enter a protracted period of stagnant economy. (The usual economy boosts won’t work here, e.g., lower interest rates.) Basically Japan.

But enough of a downturn to go below 1500, and in a matter of months.

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**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/3 "2015-10-14T21:55:29Z")

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> [@ftg](#):
>
> It’s more or less peaked. The current up cycle is ending.
> 
> I don’t think the downturn will be major, we will likely enter a protracted period of stagnant economy. (The usual economy boosts won’t work here, e.g., lower interest rates.) Basically Japan.
> 
> But enough of a downturn to go below 1500, and in a matter of months.

I do hope you left off a 0!

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**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/4 "2015-10-14T22:09:42Z")

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I sold all of my stocks in my 401K yesterday and moved it into a stable principal fund so I already made my bet in real life. I am not sure the downside will be that bad but it seems more likely than a significant upside.

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**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\
**Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/5 "2015-10-14T22:40:12Z")

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> [@Shagnasty](#):
>
> I sold all of my stocks in my 401K yesterday and moved it into a stable principal fund so I already made my bet in real life. I am not sure the downside will be that bad but it seems more likely than a significant upside.

I have some “play money” (about $90K) in conservative stocks that are rated “A” by most services (ALK, KR, EW, etc.), but everything else is, and has been throughout the uptick, in government instruments. The temptation has been to put a chunk of that into blue chips, but we’re retired and really do NOT want to chance another 2008 meltdown with our nest egg. I’ll leave the heartburn to the younger set.

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**Author:** ![Dereknocue67](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/6de8d8/32.png) [@Dereknocue67](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dereknocue67)\
**Post date:** [October 15, 2015, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/6 "2015-10-15T07:44:54Z")

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I don’t worry about the Dow because I’m fully invested in debt.

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**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\
**Post date:** [October 16, 2015, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-dow/734630/7 "2015-10-16T20:49:55Z")

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> [@Zeldar](#):
>
> I do hope you left off a 0!

Indeed. I’ve been a pessimist at times, but not that much.