# Predict the next war(s) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 9, 2016, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225 "2016-11-09T16:05:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/1 "2016-11-09T16:05:18Z")
Sure, another Trumpocalypse thread. Why not? So, I assume we’ll soon be “bombing the shit out of” ISIS. I’m not sure we’ll be sending massive numbers of ground troops into the fray. Maybe. Who knows? The US and Iranian navies have been playing “I’m not touching you! Neener neener!” recently. That’s the kind of taunting we just can’t tolerate. It makes us look weak, of course. Is Trump going to be satisfied sending a few of their boats to the bottom of the sea? Or are we going to roll out the carpet bombing? China? If Trump can’t get the trade deals he wants, will he wave the US’s collective dick at them? My money is on Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/2 "2016-11-09T16:17:28Z")
The next war that we’ll stay out of is when Putin invades Ukraine and/or the Baltic. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/3 "2016-11-09T16:24:37Z")
I expect Trump to make good on his promise to randomly bomb populated areas in the Middle East to look for ISIS. Iraq might be tricky, they are allies. Maybe Syria? Then AFTER the bombing, Putin will tell Trump to quit fucking with his ally and target someone else instead. I expect him to look the other way when Putin tries to annex another region, maybe just finish the job in Ukraine. He’ll try to cancel the Iran deal, I don’t know if that requires an act of Congress or not. I’m sure Iran won’t be happy about that. Maybe they’re next ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/4 "2016-11-09T16:29:21Z")
I don’t suppose there’s any hope that NATO-in-Europe will ramp up efforts to make up the shortfall of American support? More % spent on defence? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/5 "2016-11-09T16:39:32Z")
I assume you were also concerned with Hillary setting up a NFZ in Syria and instigating a war with Russia, yes? ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/6 "2016-11-09T17:20:01Z")
Was I concerned that a career politician and former Secretary of State would recklessly start a war with Russia? No, I was not. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/7 "2016-11-09T17:49:19Z")
If he stands by his promise, we’ll never know when it happens or if it was even us. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/8 "2016-11-09T17:58:08Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I assume you were also concerned with Hillary setting up a NFZ in Syria and instigating a war with Russia, yes? Russia would not have started a war over the NFZ. I trusted Clinton to be able to put one in place as a deterrent. Likely what would have happened is that Russia would not send a suicide pilot in there to test our resolve. War between the US and Russia benefits neither of us, Putin nor Clinton would have wanted a war. What probably would have happened is that Putin would escalate the chaos through other means. So no, there was no need to worry about a war with Russia had Clinton set up a NFZ ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/9 "2016-11-09T18:11:16Z")
It shall be known to history as _The War of the Mexican Wall_. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/10 "2016-11-09T18:12:23Z")
Perhaps no war at all? Yeah, he’ll bomb the hell out of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (whoever invented the shortcut for copying and pasting on computers should be president) with the help from a few generals, but there might not be boots on the ground. It’s 2016, drones can be made with high supply. If he closes trade with China, then China is fucked. India too, if Trump also closes trade deals with them (if any). Internally, the countries would fall into disrepair due to the lack of dollars from US consumers. There might be ounces of desperate threats, but maybe not. See below for more talk about China. North Korea might be sedated. Kim Jong Un wanted Trump as president…and here we are now. If we settle policies with Russia, and negotiate with them, we’ll stay out of their interests and avoid conflicts with them. OPEC is probably worried. If we restart oil production and shut out OPEC (and maybe negotiate deals with China/Russia on oil?), their finances will be blown to bits. The future is looking rosy, in my opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/11 "2016-11-10T08:09:34Z")
I don’t call ruining the whole world’s lunch ‘rosy’ at all. This isn’t a zero-sum game; if you hurt China, India, and OPEC, you ruin relations with them and they’ll retaliate. If in a few years time America is in a bind and needs a deal, they will remember. In the meantime, making life miserable for their citizens will fuel resentment and instability. Nice job. ---
**Author:** ![RobotDevilDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e19adc/32.png) [@RobotDevilDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RobotDevilDog)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/12 "2016-11-10T08:34:39Z")
Civil? Just kidding! (Mostly) ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/13 "2016-11-10T10:31:24Z")
For all Trump’s failings, I don’t see him being particularly pro-war (aside from continuing efforts against terrorism specifically, which of course have been going on since 9/11 under both Bush and Obama, as they should be). Hillary was the greater warmonger in this particular contest. She wanted Iraq, and she would have gone along with any other war options that were presented to her. Doubly so due to a desire to not appear weak as the first female CIC. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/14 "2018-03-23T13:46:42Z")
I’m resurrecting my own zombie thread now that Trump has picked level-headed diplomat John Bolton as his National Security Adviser. So. We have a trade war with China now. I suppose there’s some potential for Trump to let that spiral out of control to the point that our navies start bumping into each other. North Korea has long been on Bolton’s To Do List, but Trump seems to want to buddy up to Kim these days, so he may not be ready to jump into a war there. And hopefully Mattis can convince everyone that a war in Korea will be insanely bloody. My money is still on Iran. Bolton has a hard on for them, we can get involved without 100,000 artillery pieces pummeling one of our allies, they can’t shoot back with nukes, and Trump hasn’t developed a sudden crush on Khamenei the way he has with Kim. When Trump extended the nuclear deal in January, he said that he wanted a new deal in place within 120 days, or he would unilaterally withdraw from it. That puts the deadline around the beginning of May. With Bolton whispering sweet nothings in his ear, Trump will pull out of the agreement and things will go pear shaped in a hurry. Or maybe not. What the hell do I know? ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/15 "2018-03-23T14:19:47Z")
Well, there was just an announcement about [Iranian hackers](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-hits-iranian-hacker-network-with-sanctions-indictments-in-vast-global-campaign/2018/03/23/4481721c-2e16-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?utm_term=.7d5071ad5517). Just individual sanctions, though. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/16 "2018-03-23T15:09:10Z")
We should probably be talking about WW3 now because we might not be able to after it starts. Bolton certainly wants wars with Iran and North Korea. Another typical Republican chickenhawk who never has served in the military. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/17 "2018-03-23T16:29:29Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > We should probably be talking about WW3 now because we might not be able to after it starts. > > Bolton certainly wants wars with Iran and North Korea. Another typical Republican chickenhawk who never has served in the military. Either of those are possible but I would say the smart money is on war with Iran. [Bolton has been pushing for that since 2002 or so.](http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-a-john-bolton-appointment-is-scarier-than-you-think-mcmaster-trump/) > [@](#): > > …at the very moment that Powell was saying administration policy was not to attack Iran, Bolton was working with the Israelis to lay the groundwork for just such a war. During a February 2003 visit, Bolton assured Israeli officials in private meetings that he had no doubt the United States would attack Iraq, and that after taking down Saddam, it would deal with Iran, too, as well as Syria. He has continued to push that idea on several occasions as a FOX news commentator. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/18 "2018-03-23T17:57:27Z")
One thing is for sure. It won’t be against our really good friends the Russians. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/19 "2018-03-23T18:59:56Z")
Well Russia and Iran are pretty close these days. I’m not sure that’s gonna work for Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/20 "2018-03-23T19:28:42Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > My money is still on Iran. Bolton has a hard on for them, we can get involved without 100,000 artillery pieces pummeling one of our allies, they can’t shoot back with nukes, and Trump hasn’t developed a sudden crush on Khamenei the way he has with Kim. When Trump extended the nuclear deal in January, he said that he wanted a new deal in place within 120 days, or he would unilaterally withdraw from it. That puts the deadline around the beginning of May. With Bolton whispering sweet nothings in his ear, Trump will pull out of the agreement and things will go pear shaped in a hurry. This seems frighteningly logical. I also suspect Russia doesn’t have enough of a stake in Iran to try to talk Trump out of this. If Russia allows it to happen, that would be the BEST case scenario, which is still really, really bad. > [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > Another typical Republican chickenhawk who never has served in the military. Bolton did serve in the National Guard and the Army Reserve, apparently as a calculated maneuver to avoid service in Vietnam. George W. Bush’s service was more honorable IMO, he flew fighter-interceptors that were a key component of Strategic Air Command, and that’s not an easy job. He could have just done NOTHING, as a scion of an old-money family. He could easily have spent the Vietnam War skiing in Switzerland. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225.md?page=2)