# Predict the next war(s) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 9, 2016, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225 "2016-11-09T16:05:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/121 "2019-05-16T00:27:26Z")
Sure glad my kid isn’t in the navy anymore. It’s going to be awful if this doesn’t cool off. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/122 "2019-05-16T00:43:06Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > Sure glad my kid isn’t in the navy anymore. It’s going to be awful if this doesn’t cool off. Iraq lasted what, 8 years… Afghanistan is 18 years and counting. If Iran goes anything like that, my 9-year-old twins may be of enlistment/conscription age because of Trump’s idiotic foreign policy and his deranged supporters. Just another log to throw on the fire of my seething rage for him. But hey, nowadays that’s just another Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/123 "2019-05-16T00:45:43Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Agreed. The US has never seen an aircraft carrier sunk, and I feel like it’s way too cavalier about the possibility of this happening. I would put not-distant odds on a carrier being heavily damaged or sunk. Not sure if the US has seriously faced off against a country that has invested a good deal in anti-ship missiles. 1/5 odds on the Lincoln anyone? Not since, IIRC, Hornet in October 1942. Worse damage control, and luck, and maybe Forrestal gets added to that tally. Ships were smaller then. I think Hornet had less than 2500 men aboard her, counting the aviators. Now, per the Wiki for CVN-72, it’s close to 5500. Never mind the mess her reactors might cause from battle damage. The modern carrier battle group has a lot of things protecting it, and IIRC, an enemy is doing well if they can nail it down to a given 100 by 100 nm patch of ocean, but everybody thought capital ships were largely invulnerable to air attack too in the open ocean, and then came Prince of Wales and Repulse. A lot of the SPY vs spy schtick with ECM/ECCM and accompanying SSMs, I don’t think has been tested for real. Things have progressed on both attack and defense since Sheffield got sunk by that Exocet in 1982. AEGIS, provided everything is working (see Fitzgerald collision report) is supposed to be death on flying things. Yakhont is pretty scary compared to Exocet. I couldn’t guess at the odds, but I think they’re a lot better for Lincoln in the open environs of the Arabian Sea, than trying to operate in the Persian Gulf. I do think the American public would be horrified at 5000 military dead, but I also think they’d really be split about what to do next. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/124 "2019-05-16T01:18:42Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > To continue, Iran has a population of 80 Million; how many troops do you need to pacify that big a country, one that will (despite the economy and unpopularity of the clergy) unite to throw out the ‘oppressor’ (that’ll be us). It would take a sizable percentage of the entire US Army to take and hold Iran, and it would make the bleeding in Iraq look like a kiddie party. > > So no, I don’t thing we (or the Israelies) are likely to put ‘boots on the ground’ in Iran. But bombings and sinkings of Iranian warships…oh yeah, I can see that happening anytime now. The bet in Washington is that Iran would fold rather than raise the stakes…but that’s a bet I think we would be foolish to make. > > IMHO as always…YMMV. This administration is not at all about dropping massive amounts of ordnance, including nuclear weapons, on Iran. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/125 "2019-05-16T01:21:02Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > **To me, there doesn’t seem to be enough materiel yet,** in theatre, to conduct the kind of airstrikes against Iran that would result in materially degrading their WMD production capabilities. Even with the proliferation of land attack cruise missiles on surface combatants or with utilizing long range strategic bombers. If we start a build-up in the region, then it’s on. They’re not going to send 200,000 troops to the Persian Gulf and not use them. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/126 "2019-05-16T01:35:08Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If we start a build-up in the region, then it’s on. They’re not going to send 200,000 troops to the Persian Gulf and not use them. I’m not talking about a troop build up. Even 120,000 will not be enough to pacify Iran. Though it likely could defeat the Iranian military, especially if the ROE was lax concerning collateral damage. I doubt that even the 120k soldier figure being floated around, has any where near enough supplies pre-positioned already. Just people talking out of their tears, as usual. Heck, as I am. I’m saying they don’t have enough stuff there yet to blow up the things the US would likely want blown up. Like how the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia went. They probably do have enough to trash the ports the IRGC small craft operate from, as well as smash a few high value targets. Like Praying Mantis, which went on for quite awhile. Cruise missile diplomacy is also an option. Be nice if everyone could stop it with the threats already. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/127 "2019-05-16T01:44:20Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > This administration is not at all about dropping massive amounts of ordnance, including nuclear weapons, on Iran. Do you have more thoughts on this, or is your tongue firmly planted in your cheek? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/128 "2019-05-16T02:55:50Z")
Is there a good news source for tracking developments in this crisis? Any speculations on who is mounting attacks? Iran would have no motive, just the opposite, I think. ISTM the attacker is likely to either be a terrorist group (Isis?) or a power trying to provoke war if the attacks are misattributed to Iran. What secret services are powerful enough to mount such attacks _in a way that their involvement is undetectable_? Russia? Israel? Saudis? All three countries have malignant governments now; which would have the biggest motive? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/129 "2019-05-16T03:08:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > This administration is not at all about dropping massive amounts of ordnance, including nuclear weapons, on Iran. I assume ‘about’ was intended as ‘above,’ right? I just wonder if this was done by an AutoSpeller … or if I have company with my peculiar typing aphasia. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/130 "2019-05-16T03:31:04Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Is there a good news source for tracking developments in this crisis? > > Any speculations on who is mounting attacks? Iran would have no motive, just the opposite, I think. ISTM the attacker is likely to either be a terrorist group (Isis?) or a power trying to provoke war if the attacks are misattributed to Iran. What secret services are powerful enough to mount such attacks _in a way that their involvement is undetectable_? Russia? Israel? Saudis? All three countries have malignant governments now; which would have the biggest motive? May be a bit far-fetched, but if I were to go full conspiracy theorist I’d guess China. China has a vested interest in extending the United States’ “war allergy” by another decade or two (the deep aversion to war left by the bitter experience of Afghanistan and Iraq.) A quagmire in the Middle East would give China a decade or two of freedom to do things in Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the South China Sea without fear of U.S. interference. By extension, Russia could also benefit as well; giving the U.S. a war allergy could prevent U.S. intervention on NATO’s behalf. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/131 "2019-05-16T07:39:54Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > […] I don’t think the attacks were false; I’m not sure what to think other than the US can ill afford an overt shooting and terror war with Iran. Bad enough, all of the US servicemen that Iranian ordnance killed during **OIF**. You’re referring to the **Optical Internetworking Forum** , right? Maybe something else? If it’s not the [OIF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_Internetworking_Forum) please spell it out. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/132 "2019-05-16T09:08:48Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > You’re referring to the **Optical Internetworking Forum** , right? Maybe something else? If it’s not the [OIF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_Internetworking_Forum) please spell it out. Thanks! Operation Iraqi Freedom. Specifically, the occupation of Iraq. Many, if not most of the deadlier pieces of Improvised Explosive Devices, such as Explosively Formed (Forged) Projectiles, were supplied by Iran, along with training by Iranian personnel, like their Qods Force. A lot of Americans died because of those. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/133 "2019-05-16T11:44:35Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I assume ‘about’ was intended as ‘above,’ right? > > I just wonder if this was done by an AutoSpeller … or if I have company with my peculiar typing aphasia. Yeah, meant ‘above’. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/134 "2019-05-16T15:28:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I tend to believe that if Trump can “own” his opponents without actually going to war with them, he would. I don’t think Trump really likes the idea of having to deal with hundreds or even thousands of deaths and dead servicemen/women on his watch. > > It’s Bolton we should worry about. Remember, George W Bush himself wasn’t even the biggest proponent of going to war with Saddam Hussein; he had to be pushed into it by Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, and others. I believe he was leaning in that direction, but actually viewing Iraq as a post 9/11 opportunity remake the Middle East in America’s image was something that had been conceived even before Bush took office. Bolton was absolutely cut from that same cloth, and like Dick Cheney, he has absolutely no problem lying his ass off and manipulating what the president perceives in order to create a crisis. > > My sense is that Bolton views Iran as an opportunity not only to eliminate Iran, but also as an opportunity to re-do Iraq, particularly since it would remove the foreign influence there. What’s disturbing, however, is that the American media simply isn’t doing its job. It’s like the media has become completely impotent and irrelevant in terms of acting as a check on governmental abuses of power. We could stumble into wars with Iran and North Korea, and I don’t think anyone has seriously forced the administration to explain why that would even be necessary. We just accept that they’re dangerous ‘_furrin countries n stuff_’ > **[Trump, frustrated by advisers, is not convinced the time is right to attack Iran](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-frustrated-by-advisers-is-not-convinced-the-time-is-right-to-attack-iran/2019/05/15/bbf5835e-1fbf-4035-a744-12799213e824_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7fb3c9746437)** > > “They are getting way out ahead of themselves, and Trump is annoyed,” one official said of aides pushing for aggressive action. This could be one of those “plant” stories to find out who their leakers are, but if this is accurate, then this WaPo report would seem consistent with what I’ve felt, which is that Trump isn’t nearly as keen to actually get it on as he is to talk tough. He loves his moments of “fire and fury”, he likes having his generals around, but he doesn’t want to be blamed for a military disaster. Even he knows he would never be forgiven for an embarrassing military failure. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/135 "2019-05-16T17:04:15Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Even he knows he would never be forgiven for an embarrassing military failure. It’s always risky to make assumption that Trump knows things. Also - we’ve been over this time and time again - it’s risky to presume knowledge of what colossal missteps would make Trump’s base abandon him. Iran turns into a bloodbath? It’s because the libs wouldn’t be good sports and drop the pesky Mueller business. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/136 "2019-05-16T21:45:24Z")
This was somewhat interesting news: [Daily Mail - EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Air Force has deployed 20 missiles that could zap the military electronics of North Korea or Iran with super powerful microwaves, rendering their military capabilities virtually useless with NO COLLATERAL DAMAGE](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7037549/Air-Force-deployed-20-missiles-fry-military-electronics-North-Korea-Iran.html) > [@](#): > > The microwave weapons are fitted into an air-launched cruise missile and delivered from B-52 bombers. That might explain the deployment of B-52s. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/137 "2019-05-16T22:59:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This was somewhat interesting news: > > [Daily Mail - EXCLUSIVE: U.S. Air Force has deployed 20 missiles that could zap the military electronics of North Korea or Iran with super powerful microwaves, rendering their military capabilities virtually useless with NO COLLATERAL DAMAGE](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7037549/Air-Force-deployed-20-missiles-fry-military-electronics-North-Korea-Iran.html) > > That might explain the deployment of B-52s. I wonder how big the missile is? It took B-52s or similar to carry the old CALCM or AGM-129 but something not that much smaller like [JASSM-ER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-158_JASSM) is capable of being carried by smaller aircraft like F-15Es. I think the F-35 can carry it, but not internally. I think. Interesting that they’re able to generate such a strong microwave burst. I’m guessing some type of explosively-generated induced current? ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/138 "2019-05-16T23:29:36Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This was somewhat interesting news: > Daily Mail - EXCLUSIVE The word “news” is working well above its pay grade here. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/139 "2019-05-16T23:52:07Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … Trump isn’t nearly as keen to actually get it on as he is to talk tough. He loves his moments of “fire and fury”, he likes having his generals around, but he doesn’t want to be blamed for a military disaster. Even he knows he would never be forgiven for an embarrassing military failure. Yes, but the war-mongers will play him like an accordion, backing him into a corner where he feels compelled to act, probably with violent excess. The one certainty is that Trump will not conduct his foreign policy with any clear purpose or intelligence. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2019, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225/140 "2019-05-16T23:58:37Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Yes, but the war-mongers will play him like an accordion, backing him into a corner where he feels compelled to act, probably with violent excess. The one certainty is that Trump will not conduct his foreign policy with any clear purpose or intelligence. This right here. We can be sure Trump will choose whatever action he thinks will preserve his sorry ass. But whether he’s capable of weighing such actions on a complex international stage where simply bribing people won’t cut it… that’s an entirely untested matter. So far it doesn’t look promising. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-next-war-s/771225.md?page=8)