# Predict the number dead from COVID-19 in America by end of 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 29, 2020, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561 "2020-03-29T02:56:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/41 "2020-03-29T20:30:51Z")
Without extensive testing we have no way to tell how many deaths attributed to other causes are COVID related. I’ll guess that come 2021, statistician well estimate the number of “excess” deaths which will give some idea of how much to blame on COVID. I’m pessimistic and thus pleased to be wrong but I’ll go with 11. That’s millions. In USA alone. Because [political potshot removed]. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/42 "2020-03-29T21:55:08Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > I keep lists of mass killings. I keep a list of the daily body count from this virus. I play the dead pool each year. > Count me out of this. It is distasteful. Why? Especially why is it more distasteful than all the morbid stuff you say you do? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/43 "2020-03-29T22:07:50Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > the lag time between deaths and infected works both ways. As the number of deaths level off that’s an indication that the number of infected leveled off earlier. > > I don’t put much stock in estimates of infected. Unless everybody is tested every day it’s an estimate based on those who have been tested. You can be overly skeptical here. Every disease you ever heard of is underreported by this standard. But you can look at the testing regimes of different countries and make meaningful comparisons in the growth of the virus. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/44 "2020-03-30T01:02:22Z")
I don’t know if it’s an anomaly or because of 2 weeks of sheltering in place but the last 2 days were the same number of dead and today is half that. this could be the flattening of the first wave. —date ---- per/day --total 3/15/2020— 69------ 69 3/16/2020— 24------ 93 3/17/2020— 22------ 115 3/18/2020— 39------ 154 3/19/2020— 63------ 217 3/20/2020— 85------ 302 3/21/2020— 46------ 348 3/22/2020— 71------ 419 3/23/2020— 126----- 545 3/24/2020— 230----- 775 3/25/2020— 138----- 913 3/26/2020— 264----- 1177 3/27/2020— 523----- 1700 3/28/2020— 527----- 2227 3/29/2020— 248----- 2475 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/45 "2020-03-30T01:05:20Z")
Possibly weekend reporting again. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/46 "2020-03-30T02:09:48Z")
As others have mentioned, there are several unknowns that would make it very difficult to come up with an accurate estimate. My semi-WAG comes out to about 150K excess deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 respiratory issues, assuming there is no second wave of infection this autumn. I of course would be very happy if this turns out to be a large overestimate. ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/47 "2020-03-30T02:21:07Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > One of the many many things that frustrates me is that I have no idea how seriously people around me are taking this . . .because I am taking it very seriously. Except for walks around the block, we’ve been out of the house I think 3 times in two weeks, for grocery store, doctor, take-out in some combination each time. So I have no freaking clue if I am the only one doing this, or if 90% of my neighbors are following the same protocols. Around here people are definitely taking it seriously. Even major streets are largely empty and there is practically no traffic, even at rush hour or peak weekend errand-running times. Public transportation is quite empty. Lots of friends who use services like Instacart are reporting that it’s practically impossible to get a delivery time slot, even if you try at 2:00 am. I hope that’s representative of the rest of the country, but of course have no way of knowing. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/48 "2020-03-30T02:39:32Z")
> [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > Why? Especially why is it more distasteful than all the morbid stuff you say you do? Oddly yes. This smacks of cheerleading. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/49 "2020-03-30T02:49:18Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > As others have mentioned, there are several unknowns that would make it very difficult to come up with an accurate estimate. My semi-WAG comes out to about 150K excess deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 respiratory issues, assuming there is no second wave of infection this autumn. I of course would be very happy if this turns out to be a large overestimate. But the flu generally kills about 50,000 people in America each year. Coronavirus is far more deadly and more infectious. 5-20% of Americans get the flu each year. For coronavirus, it could be 20-70% of people who get it. Also the death rate isn’t known, but figures of the coronavirus being anywhere from 5 up to 20 or more times more deadly than the flu are considered serious answers. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/50 "2020-03-30T02:50:10Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > Oddly yes. This smacks of cheerleading. OK, that’s just bizarre, but you do you. Honestly I find this far less morbid and disturbing than your mass killings obsession. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/51 "2020-03-30T03:18:03Z")
Will the oncoming summer weather alone slow the virus? ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/52 "2020-03-30T05:34:28Z")
> [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > OK, that’s just bizarre, but you do you. Honestly I find this far less morbid and disturbing than your mass killings obsession. I do not want those people to be forgotten. I do not want these horrible crimes to be overlooked. I want people to know the extent of the problem so that we might solve it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/53 "2020-03-30T11:20:11Z")
It’s not a prediction I’d be boasting later about having gotten it right, if I managed to do that. So even if I had a fucking clue about how bad this is going to get, I wouldn’t be making a prediction. And yeah, despite being the reigning SDMB Death Pool champ, I’m finding this just a bit too grisly. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/54 "2020-03-30T11:48:49Z")
No idea how hoping specific people die is on a higher moral plane, but whatever. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/55 "2020-03-30T12:04:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > No idea how hoping specific people die is on a higher moral plane, but whatever. Higher moral plane? Did not allude to this in any way. Try again. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/56 "2020-03-30T12:09:09Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > Oddly yes. This smacks of cheerleading. Well, it’s not. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/57 "2020-03-30T12:14:42Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Higher moral plane? Did not allude to this in any way. Try again. Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. You are literally having fun waiting for people to die. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/58 "2020-03-30T12:23:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I am not optimistic about the coming results of earlier “social distancing” in the US. People are barely taking it seriously now outside of the hotspots. Here in a small city in Wisconsin, most people have been taking it very seriously, for at least the last 12 to 15 days. Our county infection number has gone up from 5 to 16 in that time, with (I believe) just one death so far. So, our social distancing does seem to be keeping the rate of infection from getting out of control, around here. Just a positive-news anecdote from a place far from any “hotspot.” (We are between Minneapolis and Chicago/Milwaukee, several hours’ drove from either metropolis). Indeed, our impression was that certain “hotspots” were slower to take this seriously than we were (e.g., New York City’s delay in closing schools). ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/59 "2020-03-30T12:41:32Z")
It depends on whether we listen to the scientists who tell us to stay the fuck at home, or listen to MAGAts who want us to go back to work and school ASAP. Look at the example of California, which sheltered early and flattened their progress, vs. states that are ignoring the problem and agitating for business as usual by late April. If we’re smart and persevere through the lockdown for 6-12 months, we can hold the deaths down to 200-300k. If we follow the MAGAts over the cliff and re-open in time for summer, look for a rebound epidemic that dwarfs anything we’ve seen so far. At least a million deaths , and the medical system starts collapsing as nurses and doctors start walking off the job because they can’t take it anymore. Medical schools can’t pump out replacement professionals fast enough to make up the difference. I’m blessed to work from home, so I’m digging in for the long haul, but I’m frightened for the people who don’t have that option and may be prematurely forced back to work. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/60 "2020-03-30T13:29:34Z")
When confronted with a problem it seems useful and sensible to me to assume the worst possible outcome as a working hypothesis. So number 7 it is. Last Friday the first person I knew personally died, a colleague. They say that when 2% die, everybody knows somebody who has died. I am already there and the curve is not flattening yet. Anecdotical? Perhaps. But that may change and become common. And the situation in my country (Germany) seems to be much better than in the USA. That may change too. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=4)