# Predict the number dead from COVID-19 in America by end of 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 29, 2020, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561 "2020-03-29T02:56:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/61 "2020-03-30T13:47:07Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Will the oncoming summer weather alone slow the virus? There are countries with warm weather right now and what is happening there does not look encouraging. I think the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest) site (not paywalled) is informative in this regard. Have a look at the Philipines, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, Brazil, India, Indonesia… and factor in the more than probable underreporting. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/62 "2020-03-30T14:14:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. Maybe it is. I didn’t say it wasn’t. I’d say ‘try again’ but I’ve read my quota of **CarnalK** posts for today. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/63 "2020-03-30T14:15:59Z")
Thank god. Your love for purposely missing the point gets old fast. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/64 "2020-03-30T14:21:00Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > I do not want those people to be forgotten. I do not want these horrible crimes to be overlooked. I want people to know the extent of the problem so that we might solve it. Yes your omnibus thread is going to solve mass murder… :rolleyes: When are you starting one on gang rape? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/65 "2020-03-30T14:26:30Z")
I agree with \*\* CarnalK\*\*. Purposely picking a list of people that you hope will die so you can “win” a contest seems much more disturbing than trying to assess, as a factual matter, how bad a public health emergency will get. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/66 "2020-03-30T14:37:33Z")
I think we are looking at about 400,000 deaths over 2 years ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/67 "2020-03-30T14:44:27Z")
> [@pool](#): > > Yes your omnibus thread is going to solve mass murder… :rolleyes: > When are you starting one on gang rape? **Moderator Warning** That’s well over the line. This is an official warning for being a jerk. Colibri Quarantine Zone Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/68 "2020-03-30T14:49:45Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Ok, your death pool hobby is rather obviously as grisly as this. You are literally having fun waiting for people to die. > [@CarnalK](#): > > Thank god. Your love for purposely missing the point gets old fast. > [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I agree with \*\* CarnalK\*\*. Purposely picking a list of people that you hope will die so you can “win” a contest seems much more disturbing than trying to assess, as a factual matter, how bad a public health emergency will get. **Moderator Note** Knock off the personal jabs. If you are uncomfortable with this topic, there is no need to participate in this thread or cast aspersions on those who do. This goes for everyone. I haven’t gone back to look for additional snark but if you have a beef with someone’s remarks take it to the Pit. Colibri Quarantine Zone Moderator ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/69 "2020-03-30T14:58:51Z")
If I had to bet, I’ll go with option 2. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/70 "2020-03-30T15:02:23Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > **Moderator Note** > > Knock off the personal jabs. If you are uncomfortable with this topic, there is no need to participate in this thread or cast aspersions on those who do. > > This goes for everyone. I haven’t gone back to look for additional snark but if you have a beef with someone’s remarks take it to the Pit. > > Colibri > Quarantine Zone Moderator You misquoted or something because I was not the person expressing discomfort with this topic. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/71 "2020-03-30T15:41:06Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You misquoted or something because I was not the person expressing discomfort with this topic. **Moderator Note** This is rather ironic given your jab about “purposely missing the point,” My instruction was to knock off the personal jabs for whatever reason. If you have further comment on my moderation take it to ATMB. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/72 "2020-03-30T16:12:14Z")
168,785 is my prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/73 "2020-03-30T18:23:00Z")
It seems like every time they revise projections, they go down. So I’m optimistically going to say 100-200K, since that is what Faucci is saying now best case scenario. This is, assuming, that that the just FDA approved hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work. If it does work, I could see it going down to 50K. ---
**Author:** ![MaverocK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@MaverocK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaverocK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/74 "2020-03-30T19:07:47Z")
I go with #2: 50k to 100k ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/75 "2020-03-30T19:16:28Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > It seems like every time they revise projections, they go down. So I’m optimistically going to say 100-200K, since that is what Faucci is saying now best case scenario. > > This is, assuming, that that the just FDA approved hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work. > > If it does work, I could see it going down to 50K. :rolleyes: So _if_ this drug works on something it wasn’t design for then it _could_ save 75% of cases. Yes, everything is possible but it’s pretty silly to even guess the effectiveness of some completely untested drug. For total deaths to stay below 50k, we need some sharp drop off in growth pretty damn quick. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/76 "2020-03-30T19:31:45Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > 168,785 is my prediction. If you hit that bang on, you win the other contestant’s Showcase Showdown prizes. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/77 "2020-03-30T19:40:42Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > :rolleyes: So _if_ this drug works on something it wasn’t design for then it _could_ save 75% of cases. Yes, everything is possible but it’s pretty silly to even guess the effectiveness of some completely untested drug. > > For total deaths to stay below 50k, we need some sharp drop off in growth pretty damn quick. If the assumption is 100K deaths on the low end without it, then 75% of the remaining 95K deaths is 71,250 lives saved. This will likely not be administered to every single patient, but 50K is well out of “eyeroll” territory imho, considering a best-case scenario basis. I guess we’ll find out by the end of the year. ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/78 "2020-03-30T21:15:25Z")
The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/79 "2020-03-30T21:25:14Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > If the assumption is 100K deaths on the low end without it, then 75% of the remaining 95K deaths is 71,250 lives saved. This will likely not be administered to every single patient, but 50K is well out of “eyeroll” territory imho, considering a best-case scenario basis. I guess we’ll find out by the end of the year. I’ll respond in14 days but I think 50k is eye roll worthy. That’s a fairly normal flu season. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/80 "2020-03-30T21:59:02Z")
Part of the utility of this exercise is that we can test the predictions in smaller than nationwide scales to see if the model has any validity. IF the approach I am using is correct then New York State will level off somewhere below 5000 deaths (250/million \* 19.54 million population), and NYC itself a bit below 2150, flattening the rate of new deaths/d off fast near 1800. (Latest report 1218 for New York State and 790 in NYC.) If correct the slope of New York State (they do not graph NYC alone) on the log graph should start to flatten over the next several days and by 5 days from now (4/4) have dropped from a geometric growth of 1.33 to more like 1.20 and down to 1.10ish in another 5 days (4/9). If it blows past that and goes well beyond 250 deaths/million, then my approach is clearly falsified. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=5)