# Predict the number dead from COVID-19 in America by end of 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 29, 2020, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561 "2020-03-29T02:56:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/81 "2020-03-30T22:03:50Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths. Well, as of 6PM Eastern today, the total is 2960, so I have to think that target’s going to be missed. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/82 "2020-03-30T22:11:17Z")
> [@mandala](#): > > The Chinese stopped the pandemic in its tracks with about ~3500 deaths. Since the US is better than China (I think) I am going to go with less than 3500 total deaths. The difference is that in China (if the stats are to be believed,) the number of infections has more or less plateau’d and stopped. Whereas in America it continues to skyrocket. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/83 "2020-03-30T22:23:44Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I’ll respond in14 days but I think 50k is eye roll worthy. That’s a fairly normal flu season. You do realize how bad and very much NOT normal a flu season level event happening all in one month would be? Usually influenza’s impact is spread over at least four months … and a bad year strains the system to near breaking points even spread out. Another aside by the way … looking to confirm the accuracy of the length of flu seasons I went to [this page](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2)and looked at the graph for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) rates (ILINet). We’ve been having an extra hump of ILI (clinically diagnosed influenza) since week 10 of this year. Most recent numbers reported out, week 12, ending 3/21, and meanwhile (also graphs on the same page) the rates of influenza positive tests reported to the CDC by the surveillance network dropped. Locally I’ve been told we are running near zero positive flu tests. Part of what is believed to have happened in Italy was that COVID-19’s early start was missed with cases attributed to influenza that were actually COVID-19. These numbers are consistent with the same thing having happened here. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/84 "2020-03-30T22:59:11Z")
Well, yes. Considering the connections with the west coast and asia, we probably missed a bunch of covid cases in January and February. Yes, I’m betting the US gets to 50k within a month but I’m bringing it up in response to people saying 50k total for the year. So they are saying over 12 months this will kill less than the flu in four months. That’s what you hould be objecting to, unless you think this is less dangerous than the flu or you really think half hearted lockdowns will be the decier. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/85 "2020-03-30T23:58:02Z")
If that hump, to near seasonal peak levels, 6.4% of outpatient visits in week 12 compared to 2.5% of them same week last year, is a very sizable “bunch”. _If_ the difference _was_ mostly undiagnosed COVID-19 then it implies the disease has been pretty damn widespread (especially in states but not only that were reporting high ILI activity last month) for longer than we’ve thought. Getting to the point that it is increasing ILI visits percentage is a big amount. I do think 50K is on the low side but my prediction of maybe 85Kish would still be bad flu range … and spread over the rest of the year would be “tolerable” in the sense that the system would not be overwhelmed … but in one month is beyond a nightmare, well over surge capacity by likely several fold. And that is what it is on pace to do, is doing in NYC. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/86 "2020-03-31T00:01:37Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Also my understanding is the death rate is actually higher. I forget which article I read it in, but supposedly many deaths aren’t being properly reported, plus as the virus overwhelms hospitals there will also be deaths due to strokes, heart attacks, accidents, women in labor, etc who can’t get proper medical care. I feel like the death rate almost has to be being under-reported in the US because our ratio of deaths to cases is so much lower than in so many other places, not just Italy but also Spain, France, Iran, the UK, the Netherlands… seems to me that we ought to be doing a lot more postmortem testing. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/87 "2020-03-31T00:15:50Z")
Death rates are most likely the closest to real, excepting in countries that might intentionally try to hide them. “Confirmed cases” is a number though that means little. It under-reports true infection rate everywhere, the difference is only by how much. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/88 "2020-03-31T15:02:24Z")
So here’s a newer forecast: > **[Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days...](https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/library/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days)** > > Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States? It’s predicting peak hospital usage and deaths/day is 2 weeks away (~April 15). Total deaths in the next 4 months at 81k. However, on their updates page it’s noted: > [@](#): > > These estimates align with yesterday’s projections, though the average is slightly higher due to state-level death updates since March 30. These estimates assume that currently enacted social distancing policies remain in place and also that social distances measures are introduced within seven days from today in states that have not already adopted them. Uh huh. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/89 "2020-03-31T15:09:34Z")
Disclaimer: I am not rooting for this outcome, this is my honest opinion. There will be about 1.5 million dead out of about 100,000,000 infected. A little under 1/3 of the population gets it and of those, about 1.5% die. I think the lockdowns continue through the end of May and even on the descending side of the curve we still pick up substantial dead. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/90 "2020-03-31T16:20:56Z")
I think part of the “problem” here is pluses and minuses. 1. On the plus side they are coming out with new treatments all the time. I think a new test for it is coming soon with results in hours not weeks. Ventilators are being produced in ever greater numbers. More hospital rooms are being created to care for victims. (ex. My friend at KU Med said they have suspended all surgeries and have reopened that ward just for virus patients.) This way more people with the virus can be cared for. The quarantine while not perfect, is working to make the number of people we interact with much fewer than before (ex. while I’m working the number of people washing hands, using hand sanitizer, etc… is way up.). The shortages of equipment like masks is going down from more being made and reusable ones being sterilized for reuse. 2. On the minus side major cities like New York with their dense population that uses public transpiration is just beginning to become sick. So we are getting to the point where if a person is sick they can come in, quickly be tested (and the test will be quick and accurate), and quickly start treatment. They will be able to tell just whom they have interacted with recently (say just family members) and then those people can be tested) so any spread can be contained. The medical community is better prepared. Whereas before a person practically had to be sick as a dog with specific symptoms before being tested and after being tested, couldnt get in for treatment and had already infected maybe dozens more. So things keep changing. Here in Johnson county Kansas the number of confirmed cases just topped over 100 out of around 1,000 tested and the 2nd person has died. That is with a population of 600,000. [LINK](https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article241590391.html) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/91 "2020-03-31T16:50:29Z")
All the things on your plus side are generally assumed or are only theoretical. When people talk about hospital capacity, I’m pretty sure they already assume the cancellation of elective procedures. If newer faster test kits take two weeks to get certified and out in the field, it’s probably too late to take the edge off the peak. But yes, how the big metro areas fare in the next couple of weeks will tell the tale. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/92 "2020-03-31T17:12:17Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > Well, as of 6PM Eastern today, the total is 2960, so I have to think that target’s going to be missed. Up to 3431 right now; probably be \>3500 before suppertime here on the East Coast. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/93 "2020-03-31T19:00:46Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > {…} they are coming out with new treatments all the time. {…} and quickly start treatment. {…} What ‘treatment’? Did I miss where someone announced the great news? CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/94 "2020-03-31T22:01:14Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > What ‘treatment’? Did I miss where someone announced the great news? > > CMC fnord! I dont know. I’m not in the field. However I assume as one doctor treats a patient they tell the next what works and so on. After awhile then the researchers can start collecting data and find out maybe what drugs to use and so on. Look at AIDS. Years ago when that started it was practically a death sentence but later they developed several procedures and drugs to handle it. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/95 "2020-03-31T22:14:54Z")
I suspect we will see between 100K and 300K deaths by the end of summer. if we get a fall wave, we could see the death toll mount into the millions. > [@DSeid](#): > > I don’t think this forum allows polls but please choose between: > > [ol] > [li]Less than 50K[/li][li]50 to 100K[/li][li]100 to 200K[/li][li]200 to 300K[/li][li]300 to 500K[/li][li]500K to 1M[/li][li]Over 1 M[/li][/ol] > > I’m going with option 2, 50 to 100K myself, and suspect upper middle of the range. That is BAD, and unless we can flatten the curve to the degree that it backfills in the low influenza rate summer months risks overwhelming local healthcare systems as it rolls from local surge to local surge. Spread out over five to six months, with most focus on protecting the most vulnerable, and it can be handled. Allowed to peak all in a month period in each locale and it will continue to be the stuff of horror movies. > > I’ve come to the number through several ways but looking at the curves [here](http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/), specifically the “COVID-19 Cases by Country, normalized by country population: deaths” (log version) it looks like it may level off around 200 to 250/million population is the course for Spain and Italy. U.S. population 330 million, skewed younger than Italy, comes to 66 to 82.5K. > > Note this guess implies that NYC will top off at a bit over 2000 deaths, unless more die as a result of overwhelmed systems, roughly three times the deaths recorded there to dates. > > Please note that [a poll of ID experts](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/?cid=referral_taboola_feed) reported on in the 538 blog has a predictions ranging “from 4,000 all the way to 1 million” with a “consensus” (?median?) of 200K. I wonder if our crowdsource will come up with a similar range. I _suspect_ this crowd will skew to the higher numbers. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/96 "2020-03-31T22:19:57Z")
Does social distancing work? In my rural redneck retiree county, we’ve had ONE confirmed case from 11 days ago, immediately isolated, and that’s it. Most of us have stayed indoors since the nearby SF Bay Area counties went on prompt lockdown. But too much of America is incautious. Dr Birx optimistically says to expect 200k dead IF ALL GOES PERFECTLY. Which it won’t, not by a very long shot, not with the faithful and feckless foregoing caution. So I’ll predict a close order of 2 million excess deaths in the US. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/97 "2020-03-31T22:59:26Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I dont know. I’m not in the field. However I assume {…} So, this > [@Urbanredneck](#): > > {…} On the plus side they are coming out with new treatments all the time. {…} was something you pulled out of your ass then. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/98 "2020-03-31T23:02:59Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I dont know. I’m not in the field. However I assume as one doctor treats a patient they tell the next what works and so on. After awhile then the researchers can start collecting data and find out maybe what drugs to use and so on. > > Look at AIDS. Years ago when that started it was practically a death sentence but later they developed several procedures and drugs to handle it. I spot, in your post, the word “years”. I also spot, in this thread, the words “peak hospital usage and deaths/day is 2 weeks away (~April 15)”. No one says that we won’t get better at fighting the disease. But we have expected timetables for becoming better and 2 weeks from now is not where that’s at. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/99 "2020-03-31T23:06:40Z")
Reallly side-eyeing the people up on their high horse about this thread. :rolleyes: > [@CarnalK](#): > > I am not optimistic about the coming results of earlier “social distancing” in the US. People are barely taking it seriously now outside of the hotspots. Yeah, I think it will be the classic thing experts have been warning about, that by the time you see the light from a star, you are seeing the past. People will get serious about distancing when things get dire in their area, which given the \>1 week lag, will be too late to keep them from getting much worse. Rinse, repeat. Heck, my daughter’s speech teacher just did a video lesson with her in which she said the last time she went out to eat at a restaurant with her mother was “this weekend”! :smack: ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/100 "2020-03-31T23:21:15Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I suspect we will see between 100K and 300K deaths by the end of summer. if we get a fall wave, we could see the death toll mount into the millions. I would almost certainly bet on a rebound epidemic. With the rumor circulating that the peak case load is coming in 2 weeks for \, with summer approaching and cabin fever setting in, almost certainly people are going to be pushing to end the quarantines. There’s also a [study](https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418) being circulated that suggests COVID may spread slower when the heat and humidity increases. If true, we may get a break in the Northern Hemisphere. But I’m not sure I trust this study because (1) it doesn’t seem to be peer-reviewed, and (2) it’s Chinese, and (3) would serve as useful propaganda to keep people’s hopes up. So I’m expecting a premature loosening of social distancing, resulting in a severe rebound epidemic that hits right when normal flu season is also heating up. And keep in mind, novel viruses are pretty random events, there’s no reason we couldn’t get hit with yet another one this fall. I’m neither happy nor sad about this, just kind of numb and shellshocked. I just can’t think about it anymore. Mainly my mind is occupied wondering how how Trump & McConnell are going to use this crisis to steal the US election in November. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=6)