# Predict the number dead from COVID-19 in America by end of 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 29, 2020, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561 "2020-03-29T02:56:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/141 "2020-04-03T04:01:47Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > As to rebound potential … that is a HUGE fear I have, especially if we are VERY successful at suppressing it. The fear with that goes beyond the COVID-19 numbers alone. The same social distancing that drives down COVID-19 has driven down influenza. That impacts the timing of when it will come out in the Fall and it seems very likely that when we loosen up restrictions in a few months both influenza and COVID-19 will be inadvertently entrained to synchronize. But it gets worse. Most groups are stopping any additional seasonal flu vaccination for the year as it appears there is little flu left out there on testing (despite a mysterious increase in Influenza like illnesses over the past month pretty widely). Keeping influenza admissions down in the Fall will be key if COVID-19 is rebounding then. Those vaccinated now would have some protection from that shot into the Fall. You think maybe, just maybe, all that has and is going to go with COVID-19 might delay getting next Fall’s flu vaccines into providers’ offices before the Fall? I do. We may be causing influenza to start early next Fall, with a COVID-19 surge, while the we are also creating a situation in which we will be leaving ourselves unable to protect ourselves from influenza admissions spiking even as well as we normally do, let alone better. > > The current surge in progress is where the ball is. The potential of a surge in the Fall synchronized with hospital demands due to influenza disease, is where the ball is likely to be going. Kicking the can that far down the road _may_ not be a good thing. An article I read yesterday said that 169 million Americans got their flu shots this year, which is the most ever, slightly beating 2018 & 2019’s numbers. There is an expectation that the demand in 2020 is going to be even higher. I hope that’s true, and I expect there to be a bunch of PSAs come late summer/early fall encouraging people to get their flu shots to ease the strain on hospitals. Fortunately there didn’t seem to be any concerns yet over meeting demands for the vaccine…how soon before it’s distributed is it manufactured? Maybe the thought is that it will be made and transported during a lull in CV cases. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/142 "2020-04-03T07:31:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Oh I’ll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less. That sounds good, and I hope you win this bet. But your prediction may not be as easily falsifiable as you think, as the number of coronavirus deaths is not always clear. Perhaps this [article](https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/)might interest you. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/143 "2020-04-03T12:44:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Exactly. The prediction is falsifiable in the near term. Speaking of which, isn’t the UK slipping past your prediction’s window? Looking at the [Worldometer for UK](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk), it looks like they went past 1 death/million on March 17th. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/144 "2020-04-03T14:09:04Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > I used to live in Chippewa Falls. So your great-grandfather Jack DID hang onto that icy debris after all! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/145 "2020-04-03T15:21:00Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > That sounds good, and I hope you win this bet. But your prediction may not be as easily falsifiable as you think, as the number of coronavirus deaths is not always clear. Perhaps this [article](https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/)might interest you. Thank you for the article and yes it is of interest. (And again I hope I am _wrong_ but to the lower side.) **KarlGauss** made the point [early on](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22217903&postcount=30) in this thread. Real numbers, the change in all cause mortality, will be a long time coming. Yes those will include those categorized as other causes, those in which death was indirectly caused by COVID-19 in the communities, those whose deaths were somehow in the medium term were prevented by COVID-19 in the community (likely fewer car accidents and deaths due to young adult violence), and above and beyond those who would have died of some other cause over the rest of the year. Those analyses can take years to parse out. In the meantime we have no choice but to go with the real time reporting. **elfkin477** , Influenza vaccinations are usually produced for the next season beginning a month or so ago, with production ongoing from there, and delivered beginning in August. Maybe I am being unduly anxious worrying about them having them on time this year. I worry. I thought the 169 million was the number of the supply, not the number given. If you have a source I’d be interested. Thank you. **CarnalK** the U.K. is at 44 deaths per million now day 15 per the site I am looking at anyway. Yes the prediction is that should be flattening … now. And their current growth of 24% is less than the average of the last week and more less than the average of the last 15 days, but still over the 20% mark. If they blow a few days past the 15 day mark without slowing down then indeed the hypothesis is not well supported. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/146 "2020-04-05T23:38:56Z")
Reasonable to see how my hypothesis has been holding up a few days into it. > [@DSeid](#): > > Part of the utility of this exercise is that we can test the predictions in smaller than nationwide scales to see if the model has any validity. IF the approach I am using is correct then New York State will level off somewhere below 5000 deaths (250/million \* 19.54 million population), and NYC itself a bit below 2150, flattening the rate of new deaths/d off fast near 1800. (Latest report 1218 for New York State and 790 in NYC.) If correct the slope of New York State (they do not graph NYC alone) on the log graph should start to flatten over the next several days and by 5 days from now (4/4) have dropped from a geometric growth of 1.33 to more like 1.20 and down to 1.10ish in another 5 days (4/9). > > If it blows past that and goes well beyond 250 deaths/million, then my approach is clearly falsified. Okay. New York State has dropped to 21% by 4/4, from 33% six days ago. I’ll grant myself that as “more like 20%”. > [@DSeid](#): > > … What I can say from the graphs at 91-DIVOC is that most Western countries have had very similar death rate geometric growth numbers at day 15, all off from their varied steeper initial inclines, and (with some exceptions like ranging from the low of Netherlands at 1.12, to a high of Spain at 1.20. The numbers of deaths per million at that point have varied some bit, but the geometric growth from there, the shapes of the curves from there, not too much. … > [@DSeid](#): > > … The consistency of the shapes of those curves in the Western countries is somewhat remarkable. The difference has been how steep the curve has been in the first 10 days but by day 15 the rates of %deaths increase per million are very close to each other and follow pretty much in parallel. … > > … I am hypothesizing that by D15 after 1 death/million each of them will be increasing at 20% a day or slightly less and will then continue to see similar shapes curves as the Western countries before us. That hypothesis also will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week. New York as above. United States is at 1.19 yesterday (day 13 from 1 death/per million) down from 1.22 day 10 and 1.31 day 5. U.K. is a bit delayed. Was 1.24 at day 15 and is now to the 1.20 on day 17. A ding on the model. The general shape of the curve thought is _so far_ staying not falsified though even for countries with varied approaches, from Sweden’s and the Netherlands less rigid approaches, to Denmark’s early institution of more aggressive interventions. There will be more chance to have the hypothesis falsified over the next week. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/147 "2020-04-06T00:22:29Z")
I figure also should see how this stood up to falsification. > [@DSeid](#): > > … They all show the log curve beginning to get less steep around day 10 to 15 days into the curve. Projecting the Italy and Spain curves (farthest along of the bigger number counties) current trajectories have them both likely becoming flat at around 250 deaths/million. … Today Italy’s leaders are stating that [the curve is beginning to descend](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/as-covid-19-deaths-steady-italys-health-minister-eyes-next-phase-idUSKBN21N0GA?il=0). > [@](#): > > The toll from the world’s deadliest outbreak reached 15,887, almost a quarter of the global death total, but the rise of 525 from a day earlier was the smallest daily increase since March 19, while the number of patients in badly stretched intensive care units fell for a second day running. > > “The curve has reached a plateau and begun to descend,” said Silvio Brusaferro, head of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy’s top health institute. “It is a result that we have to achieve day after day.” > > “If this is confirmed, we need to start thinking about the second phase and keep down the spread of this disease.” > > The total number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose by 4,316 to 128,948, the lowest increase in five days, which added to signs the epidemic has reached a plateau, about six weeks after it broke out in northern Italy on Feb. 21. Total deaths per million today … 263 according the World O Meter site. The number will rise some more to be sure so 250 was not exactly on the mark … but “becoming flat around 250” … looking at the growth curves seems to have decent predictive value. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/148 "2020-04-06T00:25:08Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **elfkin477** , > > Influenza vaccinations are usually produced for the next season beginning a month or so ago, with production ongoing from there, and delivered beginning in August. Maybe I am being unduly anxious worrying about them having them on time this year. I worry. > > I thought the 169 million was the number of the supply, not the number given. If you have a source I’d be interested. Thank you. > [@](#): > > A record 169.1 million doses of flu vaccines were administered in 2018-19, with this year’s total not yet finalized but expected to be even higher. A record again figures to be set for the 2020-21 flu season. [link](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/is-the-us-ready-for-how-the-coronavirus-may-impact-the-next-flu-season/ar-BB11Z6jn) And this is reassuring > [@](#): > > Another COVID-19-related concern: What impact will isolation and social distancing measures in the U.S. and around the world have on vaccine production? > > “Barring any unforeseen issues or issues outside of GSK’s control, and based on existing commitments with our customers, we are on track to manufacture and supply the influenza vaccines doses for the upcoming season,” a spokesperson for GlaxoSmithKline replied to AccuWeather in an email. > > “As far as I can tell, the COVID-19 pandemic has not had a detrimental effect on vaccine production to date,” Barr told AccuWeather. “This may vary from manufacturer to manufacturer and from country to country as vaccine for the U.S. is made in several countries and impact on workforce and movement of materials may vary between sites. It is impossible to determine at this stage if there will be a delay in the supply of vaccine to the U.S. or other global markets for the 2020-21 influenza vaccine season.” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/149 "2020-04-10T16:20:36Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Oh I’ll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less. > [@CarnalK](#): > > I’m not trying to be alarmist but I am betting you’re low. Social distancing just isn’t happening enough to slow the doubling rate. Even if New York peaks by then, I figure a few other metro areas will start picking up. So my back of the envelope falsifiable prediction is 32,000 by Easter Sunday. I doubt the curve will be flattening by then either but I’d rather not predict more than 2 weeks away. Well, two days away and it sure looks like we’re both going to be substantially over the real number, me more than you obviously. Looking at the charts, it really looks like the US is right on Italy’s path. That’s not great but if that holds, the US won’t double its covid deaths for another couple of weeks so my 32k guess will now be by April 23rd or so. It would seem that the only way we’re getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts. Way too many unknown variables. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/150 "2020-04-10T18:32:45Z")
Ok, [91-divoc.com](http://91-divoc.com) did some funky new update. This morning the US was right on Italy’s line on the normalized by population graph. Hmm. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/151 "2020-04-10T20:39:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It would seem that the only way we’re getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts. I know we’re supposed to keep politics out of here, so I’ll try to state this as neutrally as possible: If we’re talking about the track of this disease and the possibility of a rebound epidemic, there’s no mystery or sketchy estimation involved. The science tells us that social isolation is the way to prevent this disease from spreading. The chance of a rebound epidemic depends on how politicians respond to the pressure to restart the economy. Even since before this pandemic hit true crisis proportions, media figures have been floating trial balloons that the economic risk should be mitigated by putting people back to work, health risk be damned. There are lots of ordinary people whose thoughts are on that same wavelength. I’m guessing that in the US there will be enormous pressure to “re-open the economy” by early summer, followed by a big rebound in later summer. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/152 "2020-04-10T22:35:22Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, two days away and it sure looks like we’re both going to be substantially over the real number, me more than you obviously. Looking at the charts, it really looks like the US is right on Italy’s path. That’s not great but if that holds, the US won’t double its covid deaths for another couple of weeks so my 32k guess will now be by April 23rd or so. > > It would seem that the only way we’re getting to some of the higher estimates is if there i some big bounceback waves after restrictions are loosened but estimates about that I place zero trust in from even the smartest experts. Way too many unknown variables. Yeah the follow the curve model not so substantially over-estimating if it continues to follow. 16,478 deaths by yesterday. Increasing about 12 to 13% a day, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday itself to go … using 13% that’s 23,776 as of Easter Sunday, pretty much hitting that “slightly shy of 25,000” if so … a few more days to see though. Sorry that it is that high. And has a long way to go. That said my read of where Italy and New York were topping off was a bit low. Each now over 300 deaths per million and not done yet. The follow the curves model is unable to go beyond where those who have gone before have gone and the critical data for the models to give believable results is still in progress. Hopefully the needed data won’t be too long in coming and meanwhile the brake will be eased off slowly enough … but some are going to ease up some before we will have to decide how to and we can use their results to make some predictions too. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/153 "2020-04-11T05:34:33Z")
On the one hand, I’m obviously glad in immediate terms that the numbers are not as high as I thought, so far. On the other, weird as it is to say, there’s a danger if the numbers are “too low”. We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic–and if the death toll is too much of a “fizzle” we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths. Not a good tradeoff. ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/154 "2020-04-11T17:35:40Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > On the one hand, I’m obviously glad in immediate terms that the numbers are not as high as I thought, so far. On the other, weird as it is to say, there’s a danger if the numbers are “too low”. We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic–and if the death toll is too much of a “fizzle” we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths. Not a good tradeoff. I can’t possibly get on board with any logic that argues it could possibly be better for hundreds of thousands more people to die now, in order to possibly prevent some possible future occurrence from maybe possibly being a lot more deadly. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/155 "2020-04-11T18:09:34Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > We need to learn a lesson from this experience that prepares us for a future, possibly far more deadly, pandemic–and if the death toll is too much of a “fizzle” we may save a couple hundred thousand lives now and pay for it later with tens of millions of additional deaths. H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I’m not sure I’d call that a “fizzle” myself, but I guess we’ll see what the general public’s perception is. I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. “the threat from this is exaggerated/it’s just another flu” people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/156 "2020-04-11T18:40:49Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I’m not sure I’d call that a “fizzle” myself, but I guess we’ll see what the general public’s perception is. > > I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. “the threat from this is exaggerated/it’s just another flu” people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently. It’s pretty easy to show people the problems with it. I’ve used the calculator on my phone to show what doubling every 3 days looks like. You do it 10 times and that’s what 1 month looks like. The first month the numbers aren’t scary. starting with 1 person you get 512 deaths. but you can quickly show what that looks like after 2 months. 524,288 deaths. It’s amazing how fast someone can go from “that’s not so many” to the reality of a half million in 2 months. 1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 1st month 11. 1,024 12. 2,048 13. 4,096 14. 8,192 15. 16,384 16. 32,768 17. 65,536 18. 131,072 19. 262,144 20, 524,288 2nd month ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/157 "2020-04-11T18:56:49Z")
That demonstration only works on someone who bought that a doubling every 3 days would happen for 2 months. Many didn’t and by the way, it didn’t come to pass. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/158 "2020-04-11T19:06:45Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > H1N1 purportedly killed 12,469 in the United States over the course of a year. Covid-19 has killed over 20,000 in six weeks and is hardly done. I’m not sure I’d call that a “fizzle” myself, but I guess we’ll see what the general public’s perception is. > > I find myself idly curious if any of the skeptics or naysayers from back in February or early March, i.e. “the threat from this is exaggerated/it’s just another flu” people( not in this thread ), are now starting to view this event differently. **Tamerlane** , H1N1 was not a bad flu in an absolute number way. It was bad because it killed kids and young adults much more than usual seasonal flu does. In absolute deaths terms is was ho-hum. How about those of us who have been saying “Crap, this might be as bad as an extra flu level event!”? My FEAR has been that this could be a bad flu-level event occurring in a compressed time period. I am viewing this as that, and that is horribly bad. The 2017-18 influenza year was a recent bad flu year (even if few noticed that) and killed over 60K in the United States (by some estimates more like in the 90K+ range). [Globally](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/) “389 000 deaths from respiratory causes are associated with influenza each year on average”. Some years lots worse than others. That is not JUST anything even if we are used to that yearly carnage as normal and fairly casual about it. It may not be the Horsemen riding but a “fizzle” it aint either. The plus side is that it _may_ be mostly hitting us off-season to influenza. The big worry will be what happens if the brakes aren’t really let off until near the Fall and a second wave hits synchronized _with_ influenza. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2020, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/159 "2020-04-11T19:19:53Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > How about those of us who have been saying “Crap, this might be as bad as an extra flu level event!”? > > My FEAR has been that this could be a bad flu-level event occurring in a compressed time period. I am viewing this as that, and that is horribly bad. I have no argument at all with your take. But your take is _informed_ ;). Most people saying “it’s just another flu” are using that as a dismissal of the seriousness of this event. Often combined with “all these extreme measures are unnecessary or counterproductive.” Indeed far too many people are rather dismissive of influenza as well, hence the large not-bothering-to-get-vaccinated cohort. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561/160 "2020-04-14T00:55:05Z")
Anyone wanting to revise their predictions? My “growth curve” approach has failed in one prediction to the low end and one to the high end: Sadly Italy kept going up farther than I thought it would and NYC has ended up running higher than Italy’s deaths/million rather than less as I thought it would. Happily the prediction of “slightly shy of 25,000” U.S. COVID-19 attributed deaths as of Easter Sunday was at least a slight overcall with the number coming in at just over 22,000 - which I would state is a smidge more than “slightly shy”. That said I think overall the curves approach has held up moderately well overall so far. May the U.S. deaths continue to be on track for less than it predicted! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-number-dead-from-covid-19-in-america-by-end-of-2020/850561.md?page=9)