I would almost certainly bet on a rebound epidemic. With the rumor circulating that the peak case load is coming in 2 weeks for <insert city here>, with summer approaching and cabin fever setting in, almost certainly people are going to be pushing to end the quarantines. Almost certainly it will be too early.
There’s also a study being circulated that suggests COVID may spread slower when the heat and humidity increases. If true, we may get a break in the Northern Hemisphere. But I’m not sure I trust this study because (1) it doesn’t seem to be peer-reviewed, and (2) it’s Chinese, and (3) would serve as useful propaganda to keep people’s hopes up.
So I’m expecting a premature loosening of social distancing, resulting in a severe rebound epidemic that hits right when normal flu season is also heating up. And keep in mind, novel viruses are pretty random events, there’s no reason we couldn’t get hit with yet another one this fall.
I’m neither happy nor sad about this, just kind of numb and shellshocked. I just can’t think about it anymore. Mainly my mind is occupied wondering how how Trump & McConnell are going to use this crisis to steal the US election in November.
A few weeks ago the virus was a democratic hoax and you were nasty person for demanding any action; today the White house’s most favourable estimates are 100k-240K deaths and claim total excellence in its quick/complete response to the Pandemic.
Not specifically to this poster, more to all who are going to the very high side -
Italy is currently at about 192 deaths/million. Not done yet but clearly slowing down. Again, looks like 250 deaths/million give or take is where it will top off there.
1.5 million dead in the U.S. would be over 4500 deaths/million for the United States, about 18 times what Italy is looking like is topping off at, and 23 times what they are now.
What do you think are the factors that go into the U.S. being so likely to experience so many times more than what Italy is seeing? Or do you think Italy will keep rising to 18 fold where they are now despite the current shape of the growth curve?
drivekiller “over” means “more than.” If you want to specify how much over you think it will be and why please do.
What I can say from the graphs at 91-DIVOC is that most Western countries have had very similar death rate geometric growth numbers at day 15, all off from their varied steeper initial inclines, and (with some exceptions like ranging from the low of Netherlands at 1.12, to a high of Spain at 1.20. The numbers of deaths per million at that point have varied some bit, but the geometric growth from there, the shapes of the curves from there, not too much.
As to rebound potential … that is a HUGE fear I have, especially if we are VERY successful at suppressing it. The fear with that goes beyond the COVID-19 numbers alone. The same social distancing that drives down COVID-19 has driven down influenza. That impacts the timing of when it will come out in the Fall and it seems very likely that when we loosen up restrictions in a few months both influenza and COVID-19 will be inadvertently entrained to synchronize. But it gets worse. Most groups are stopping any additional seasonal flu vaccination for the year as it appears there is little flu left out there on testing (despite a mysterious increase in Influenza like illnesses over the past month pretty widely). Keeping influenza admissions down in the Fall will be key if COVID-19 is rebounding then. Those vaccinated now would have some protection from that shot into the Fall. You think maybe, just maybe, all that has and is going to go with COVID-19 might delay getting next Fall’s flu vaccines into providers’ offices before the Fall? I do. We may be causing influenza to start early next Fall, with a COVID-19 surge, while the we are also creating a situation in which we will be leaving ourselves unable to protect ourselves from influenza admissions spiking even as well as we normally do, let alone better.
The current surge in progress is where the ball is. The potential of a surge in the Fall synchronized with hospital demands due to influenza disease, is where the ball is likely to be going. Kicking the can that far down the road may not be a good thing.
DSeid, I don’t know if I’m on the “very high side”, as I said my hunch is about half a million, which is only one-third of the number you reference, 1.5 million. But I’m definitely higher than you are. What I question in your premise is the idea that over 75 percent of the deaths that Italy will end up with, total, have already taken place. You say it “looks like” that. Based on what? According to the NYT Upshot, Italy’s death total is still increasing by 10% per day.
The other reason I question your lower figure is that the latest info seems to indicate that with good medical care (hardly a sure thing if hospitals get overwhelmed), the death rate for all infections (not just reported ones: this is based on stuff like the Princess cruise where they tested everyone) is about 0.66%. Therefore, to stay at 250 deaths per million would require that only 4% of the population of the country even *catches *this thing (including asymptomatic cases) by the end of 2020. That seems likely to you?
Yes, And I don’t trust him for the simple reason he’s still in Trump’s orbit. Trump already announced that his own metric for him “doing a good job” in response to this pandemic is no more than 100,000 Americans dead. The second the count goes to 100,001 is the very second Trump replaces him. Actually, Trump will likely replace him in July when it is obvious even to Trump that this will not end by July 31st.
Latest death count in the US in just about a month of Trump taking this crisis seriously is 4,054. Trump said he like the numbers low because high numbers make him look bad. That tells you right there that he doesn’t think those numbers are high.
Also look at the news and a couple of related threads here. People in the US are still doing stupid stuff that will ensure this disease spreads and kills a lot more people. They’re doing this now when it’s incredibly serious and is a new experience. What do you think they will do when this drags on for months in the US as it has already done in China and the people get complacent? Also, no doubt, it’s also just a matter of time before one or more nitwits shoot and kill police officers trying to enforce quarantines or other public heatlh emergency directives. Those areas will be hit worse because of the idiots there, and those idiots will continue to spread it.
Yes, Fauci is that far off. And I will not be happy to be proven correct on any of this.
I am afraid the number will be high. This is a highly contagious disease and isolation cannot be mantained forever. It seems very likely to me that 50% will be infected at some time, perhaps even more (Angela Merkel said that 2/3 of Germans would get it. As good a guess as any). Assuming a very low mortality of 0.66% (the best number I find in the various data available) and 150 Million cases, that is 1 Million fatalities.
I assume Fauci has his reasons for advancing such a “low” number. One big reason stands beside him and is scientifically ignorant and very temperamental.
I would love to be wrong, of course.
Then there is the fact that every year about 1% of the population of any given country dies (and about the same number are born). With hospitals overwhelmed, the current 2,813,503 deaths could easily rise by 10, 20% or more. I would consider those deaths to be attributable to the coronavirus too.
There will be fewer car accidents, though.
The Imperial report that made the UK government change their policy estimate 2.2 million dead in the US if no measures were taken whatsoever. Not including extra deaths resulting from chaos and a totally inundated health care system.
So I think thats the worst case scenario, with every measure attempted failing totally everywhere. Not a plausible outcome but the worst possible one.
Looking at the log scale graphs of deaths/million linked to in to OP and referenced several times. The rate of growth is consistently dropping. From days past 1 death/million, percent increase per day:
Sure it is possible that the growth rate will stop dropping closer and closer to zero, but that would seem to be be a very unlikely thing, just based on how things, included epidemics, grow.
My hypothesis predicts that the growth rate will continue to drop. That hypothesis will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week. 250 flat portion is a rough eyeballing, and sure could be 300, or maybe even a little more, there. But many times more than that?
The consistency of the shapes of those curves in the Western countries is somewhat remarkable. The difference has been how steep the curve has been in the first 10 days but by day 15 the rates of %deaths increase per million are very close to each other and follow pretty much in parallel.
Those are among the Western countries ahead of us. Here’s where we’ve been so far -
US:
D5 31%
D8 25% (most recent on the graph)
New York:
D5 33%
D10 33%
D11 26% (most recent)
I am hypothesizing that by D15 after 1 death/million each of them will be increasing at 20% a day or slightly less and will then continue to see similar shapes curves as the Western countries before us. That hypothesis also will have a chance to be falsified (or supported) over this next week.
No, just do some Googling and you will see every lab out there is working on new vaccines or drug treatments or a cheaper way to make ventilators. I wont do your research for you.
But ok. since you wont get off your ass, HERE is an article on fast tracking vaccine research.
I’ve also seen liquor manufacturers making hand sanitizer.
I suppose you are also blind to the computer companies making apps like Zoom that make group discussions easier.
On the local scene I’m impressed on how many companies are finding novel ways to stay open and keep people employed.
So why not do some looking around first before slamming me?
I need to see your graphs but I have to admit to being confused about total cases vs new ones. If say there are 30 new cases every day over a 10 day period that means 300 new cases? Well no that means a total of 300 cases with new cases being steady at 30 a day.
Oh I’ll make another falsifiable prediction. U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be slightly shy of 25,000 by Easter Sunday. This a horrible number and will be very bad, but would be a number much less than Italy was running on a per million basis at the same point. I hope I am wrong and it is less.
IANAD but I am sceptical that new treatments are generally developed by experimenting on patients and word-of-mouth.
I am reluctant to guess at US deaths because there are simply too many variables. If social distancing was adhered to strictly, the deaths could well top out at 50K or less… but that’s not happening and there are still lots of dumbasses deliberately attending mass gatherings so that they can pray away the virus together, which will result in the thing spreading faster and wider. It’s hard to factor in the dumbass level, especially in America which has the biggest and best dumbasses in the world.
But to wildly speculate, I’ll say there will be a few tens of thousands before the infection rate slows, followed by premature cessation of social distancing measures and a massive rebound that will drive the rate over 100K. And if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, we could well see it breach the 200K mark. OTOH if they find an effective existing treatment, we could get lucky.
Looking at the graphs, Spain and Italy have not peaked yet and the line is still climbing fast. Ditto for the USA. I am surprised at how many cases and deaths there have been already, and this even in countries that took quick and relatively effective action. The issue in all three countries is how well the health system can cope, or whether the hospitads get overwhelmed, and many medics also among the sick.
This is just a guessing game, and any guesses will probably look embarrassingly off the mark within a week or two, so the question is whether wee think that the death toll is going to explode, or whether it will level off. The virus will mutate, but will it become milder or more deadly? The COVID virus appears to be less deadly than SARS, and definitely less so than MERS, but is reputedly more infectious than either, so it has the potential to be the big one.
What to do? Do not expect a vaccine before the end of the year, more likely not before next spring. Our main hope is that the COVID virus will become milder. One ray of hope is that a couple of drugs have ***reputedly ***shown good results in helping those who fell ill, one is an anti-arthritis drug, another is an anti-viral drug (Avigan). We should be so lucky.
I do not want to sound ghoulish or pessimistic, but I have a nasty feeling that this pandemic will leave the USA short of somewhere between 200,000 and one million people. For Europe I would guess around 150,000 - 200,000 people. I really, really hope that I will be proven wrong and a total pessimist.
I’m not trying to be alarmist but I am betting you’re low. Social distancing just isn’t happening enough to slow the doubling rate. Even if New York peaks by then, I figure a few other metro areas will start picking up. So my back of the envelope falsifiable prediction is 32,000 by Easter Sunday. I doubt the curve will be flattening by then either but I’d rather not predict more than 2 weeks away.
This is not how mutation or disease transmission works.
First, most mutations are either neutral or nonviable in effect.
Second, should a “milder” version of the virus emerge, it will not eliminate or displace the deadlier strains that are out there unless it confers immunity to deadlier viruses
Third, if we want the pandemic to stop spreading, we should want the virus to be deadlier (so that people do not become walking spreaders), or better yet, we should want a virus that is harder to transmit, or whose symptoms progress much faster (so that people know they are infected).
In short: viral mutation is not something to hope or rely upon to stop the pandemic.
When Italy climbs down the curve and the number of new cases become small, then we’ll have a better idea of what to expect in the US based on population and the measures taken. I could very well be wrong and hope to be, but we’ve still got states refusing to take action and we don’t know when those that have a foot on the brake now are going to take the foot off the brake.