# Predict the onset of the next recession. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 23, 2018, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107 "2018-08-23T12:31:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2018, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/1 "2018-08-23T12:31:30Z")
When will the next recession begin\* in the United States? Poll options, if I set it up right, are calendar year quarters, e.g. we’re in 2018 Q3, which spans July August and September of this year. \*As declared by NBER, which AFAIK does not have a simple definition like “two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.” ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2018, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/2 "2018-08-23T12:40:05Z")
I chose Q1 2021. My confidence level? Don’t expect me to start shorting the S&P500 any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2018, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/3 "2018-08-23T13:17:43Z")
I’ve successfully predicted ten of the last 2 recessions! ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2018, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/4 "2018-08-23T13:18:20Z")
I picked 4Q2019 but I wouldn’t bet on that outcome for less than a 15:1 payoff. The real answer is that I have basically no idea. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2018, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/5 "2018-08-23T13:32:03Z")
First quarter 2020 … The USA is going to have a nasty nasty presidential campaign season … and the voters will be presented with either “the same as the past four years” or “everything opposite the past four years” … this kind of uncertainty will cause businesses to pull back, gather the horses and wait until the outcome of the election before committing to one direction or the other … I suspect a small recession, but recession none-the-less … ---
**Author:** ![pullin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c57346/32.png) [@pullin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pullin)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/6 "2018-08-24T10:10:10Z")
I can tell you with some degree of certainty that recession will happen in 4th Q 2019. That’s the point at which I will retire and begin living entirely on my investments. You’ve been warned. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/7 "2018-08-24T12:43:15Z")
I’m going with Q2, 2019, just because… ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/8 "2018-08-24T13:42:14Z")
It’ll happen after the 2020 election. Just in time for the public to blame it on Trump’s successor. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/9 "2018-08-24T14:13:32Z")
Some time into Trump’s 2nd term. ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/10 "2018-08-24T14:19:41Z")
Q4, 2019 feels right to me for some reason. We are certainly due for a major correction, and throw in the prospect of an impeachment trial and the stock market may crash leading us into some kind of a recession. ---
**Author:** ![Enlightening\_Meditation](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecc23a/32.png) [@Enlightening\_Meditation](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enlightening_Meditation)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2018, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/11 "2018-08-24T22:24:26Z")
I voted ‘2028 or later’. We are perhaps in the early innings of a blockchain-tech driven era of growth and prosperity. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2018, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/12 "2018-08-25T11:59:39Z")
> [@Enlightening\_Meditation](#): > > I voted ‘2028 or later’. We are perhaps in the early innings of a blockchain-tech driven era of growth and prosperity. Oooh, just like the “new economy” of the dot-com bubble! Anyway … Like Tolstoy’s families: Recessions are all alike; every boom time booms in its own way.\* The current growth era is quite odd. Very slow growing for a surprisingly long time. So it’s hard to compare it to other up times. In particular, it makes guessing when the next down turn starts even harder. And I’ve been good lately. The dot-com bust I knew was about to happen with 3 months of when it did. The housing bubble burst within 4 or 5 months. This one … I couldn’t being to guess when it will happen. But it is a bubble, just a well rounded one. So even a conservative “within a year” guess could be off. Definitely will not last more than 2 years. - Second time I referenced this recently. One more time and I’m an official old dude. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/13 "2018-08-28T15:00:42Z")
Current median response is Q1 2020. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/14 "2018-08-28T15:34:11Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > I’ve successfully predicted ten of the last 2 recessions! Proving that you are better than Wall Street experts! > [@Paul Samuelson](#): > > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/15 "2018-08-28T15:46:29Z")
The whole point of economic downturns and market crashes is that they are unpredictable. Of course it’s possible to see that such and such market is overheated and is going to crash at some point, but it’s impossible to rationally predict when an irrational market is going to suddenly rationalize. If it was rational it would have already corrected. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/16 "2018-08-28T15:51:52Z")
I actually feel like it’s coming sooner rather than later. My prediction for the next stock market crash: October 18, 2018. ---
**Author:** ![pohjonen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pohjonen/32/423_2.png) [@pohjonen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pohjonen)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/17 "2018-08-28T18:27:23Z")
[From CNBC:](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/the-us-labor-shortage-is-reaching-a-critical-point.html) > [@](#): > > The U.S. labor shortage is reaching a critical point > Private payrolls grew less than expected in June, likely due not just to a slowdown in hiring but also a decline in the labor pool. > For the first time, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them. > Economists expect wage pressures to continue building as part of increasing inflation. Soon, I’d say. Can’t have employers having to compete for workers. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/18 "2018-08-28T19:02:00Z")
> [@pohjonen](#): > > [From CNBC:](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/the-us-labor-shortage-is-reaching-a-critical-point.html) > > Soon, I’d say. Can’t have employers having to compete for workers. This topic comes up frequently on NPR Marketwatch. And they always ask “Why aren’t wages rising because of the shortage of workers?” And nobody really has an answer. ---
**Author:** ![mbh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@mbh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mbh)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2018, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/19 "2018-08-28T20:00:08Z")
John Kenneth Galbraith: > [@](#): > > The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/20 "2020-03-19T11:11:17Z")
This was all fun and games, except it’s turning out not so fun. We may have some “winners” to announce soon, depending on when NBER calls it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107.md?page=2)