# Predict the onset of the next recession. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 23, 2018, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107 "2018-08-23T12:31:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/21 "2020-03-19T12:18:05Z")
> [@pullin](#): > > I can tell you with some degree of certainty that recession will happen in 4th Q 2019. That’s the point at which I will retire and begin living entirely on my investments. > > You’ve been warned. I’m sorry. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/22 "2020-03-19T12:23:20Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > Like Tolstoy’s families: Recessions are all alike; every boom time booms in its own way. > > … > > This one … I couldn’t being [sic] to guess when it will happen. But it is a bubble, just a well rounded one. So even a conservative “within a year” guess could be off. Definitely will not last more than 2 years. I guess all recessions are not alike. Assuming this is a recession and not a depression. (Which I doubt.) A year ago I had been thinking late 2019, early 2020. So I was sort of close at that forecast range. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/23 "2020-03-19T18:44:07Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I’m sorry. ☹ If **pullin** did retire then and moved his investments to less volatile ones, he or she should be doing pretty well. Someone who was planning to retire now would be screwed. Too bad I voted already - if not I’d vote for 2Q20 and look smart. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2020, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/24 "2020-06-08T23:09:25Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > This was all fun and games, except it’s turning out not so fun. We may have some “winners” to announce soon, depending on when NBER calls it. It’s official: > **[Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020](https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-june-8-2020)** Our winners: **Dr. Drake Frodo Watchwolf49** Congratulations. Your prize is a recession. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/25 "2020-06-09T00:05:09Z")
Wooo!.. I guess? ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2020, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107/26 "2020-06-09T20:59:48Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > Current median response is Q1 2020. Well, Q2 2020 is about to end. Was that a recession? Is that all? I would have expected worse, I guess it is still to come. Weird times we live in, weirder ahead I expect. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-onset-of-the-next-recession/820107.md?page=1)