Predict the onset of the next recession.

[JohnT]

@pullin

I can tell you with some degree of certainty that recession will happen in 4th Q 2019. That’s the point at which I will retire and begin living entirely on my investments.

You’ve been warned.

I’m sorry.

[ftg]

@ftg

Like Tolstoy’s families: Recessions are all alike; every boom time booms in its own way.

…

This one … I couldn’t being [sic] to guess when it will happen. But it is a bubble, just a well rounded one. So even a conservative “within a year” guess could be off. Definitely will not last more than 2 years.

I guess all recessions are not alike. Assuming this is a recession and not a depression. (Which I doubt.)

A year ago I had been thinking late 2019, early 2020. So I was sort of close at that forecast range.

[Voyager]

@JohnT

I’m sorry.

If pullin did retire then and moved his investments to less volatile ones, he or she should be doing pretty well.
Someone who was planning to retire now would be screwed.

Too bad I voted already - if not I’d vote for 2Q20 and look smart.

[Ruken]

@Ruken

This was all fun and games, except it’s turning out not so fun. We may have some “winners” to announce soon, depending on when NBER calls it.

It’s official:

Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement June 8, 2020

Our winners:

Dr. Drake
Frodo
Watchwolf49

Congratulations. Your prize is a recession.

[Frodo]

Wooo!.. I guess?

[Pardel-Lux]

@Ruken

Current median response is Q1 2020.

Well, Q2 2020 is about to end. Was that a recession? Is that all? I would have expected worse, I guess it is still to come. Weird times we live in, weirder ahead I expect.