# Predict the Outcome of Florida vs. George Zimmerman **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 21, 2013, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528 "2013-06-21T01:47:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/1 "2013-06-21T01:47:38Z")
Per [State of Florida vs. George Zimmerman Trial Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=694366), the jury has been chosen, comprised of five white women and one black or Hispanic woman. There are other threads concerning the case so there’s no real need to debate the pro’s and con’s here. I just want to get some numbers as to how everyone thinks things will shake out. Poll coming shortly. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/2 "2013-06-21T01:57:29Z")
Did you re-read it before you posted: I think GZ is innocent and the jury will find the same. I think GZ is innocent but the jury will convict. GZ is guilty, but the jury will acquit. GZ is guilty, but the jury will acquit. The jury won’t reach concensus and will be declared hung. Something else. Note 3 and 4 ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/3 "2013-06-21T02:10:03Z")
Oops. Cut & paste error. Thanks for pointing that out 4 should read ‘GZ is guilty, and the jury will see this.’ Can I get a mod to repair please? ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/4 "2013-06-21T05:51:37Z")
I don’t like the word “innocent” in the poll. I prefer the term “not guilty”. That said, from the options provided, I voted for “I think GZ is innocent but the jury will convict.” Call me cynical. ---
**Author:** ![Becky2844](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Becky2844](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Becky2844)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/5 "2013-06-21T07:44:40Z")
This is Florida. He’s going to get off. Even though he was told to stop pursuing the kid and wasn’t supposed to be carrying a gun, he’s going to get off. ---
**Author:** ![Becky2844](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@Becky2844](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Becky2844)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/6 "2013-06-21T07:55:10Z")
Because he’s gained so much weight in jail a couple years from now he’s going to be on “Biggest Loser” and nobody will even care about the irony. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/7 "2013-06-21T11:26:25Z")
Guilty verdict. Judge will either set aside that verdict or it will be overturned on appeal. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/8 "2013-06-21T13:38:32Z")
I voted that under the law he is innocent and the jury will most likely agree. That said, Travon would also have been innocent if he shot Zimmerman and he had more of a cause to. It is a stupid law and these kind of stupid, horrible things will continue to happen under it. Whatever the jury finds, George Zimmerman will always be guilty of being an asshole and 100% responsible for the events of that night. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/9 "2013-06-21T13:51:44Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > I don’t like the word “innocent” in the poll. I prefer the term “not guilty”. That said, from the options provided, I voted for “I think GZ is innocent but the jury will convict.” Call me cynical. You can call me cynical as well, but on the opposite side of that fence. I believe Zimmerman is guilty (or at least morally culpable) and he will be acquitted. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/10 "2013-06-21T13:57:20Z")
> [@L. G. Butts](#): > > I voted that under the law he is innocent and the jury will most likely agree. That said, Travon would also have been innocent if he shot Zimmerman and he had more of a cause to. It is a stupid law and these kind of stupid, horrible things will continue to happen under it. Whatever the jury finds, George Zimmerman will always be guilty of being an asshole and 100% responsible for the events of that night. Couldn’t have said it better, except I voted that GZ is guilty because in my mind he’s guilty of being an asshole. ---
**Author:** ![Mauvaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mauvaise/32/11084_2.png) [@Mauvaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mauvaise)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/11 "2013-06-21T14:07:43Z")
> [@L. G. Butts](#): > > I voted that under the law he is innocent and the jury will most likely agree. That said, Travon would also have been innocent if he shot Zimmerman and he had more of a cause to. It is a stupid law and these kind of stupid, horrible things will continue to happen under it. Whatever the jury finds, George Zimmerman will always be guilty of being an asshole and 100% responsible for the events of that night. This is exactly how I feel. Are there any lesser charges the jury can find? Or is it just the one charge, all or nothing? This situation was entirely Zimmerman’s making and I do feel he should be held accountable for that. This Stand your Ground law is crap if you can go and instigate the situation you then want to defend yourself from. But I don’t think he’ll be convicted. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/12 "2013-06-21T14:12:12Z")
I don’t have an opinion on his guilt, but I think they’ll find him guilty. Not saying that’s how I’d vote if I were on the jury though. I honestly don’t know enough of the facts to form an opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/13 "2013-06-21T14:22:45Z")
I think Zimmerman is factually innocent of second degree murder. I think he’s factually guilty of manslaughter. Since the jury doesn’t have the choice of manslaughter, they should acquit, and I believe they will. No vote on the poll quite captures that option. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/14 "2013-06-21T16:04:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I think Zimmerman is factually innocent of second degree murder. > I think he’s factually guilty of manslaughter. > > Since the jury doesn’t have the choice of manslaughter, they should acquit, and I believe they will… Given Florida’s law on self-defense, in your opinion, do you think the prosecution could meet its burden for disproving Zimmerman’s self-defense claim? Or are you saying that, if we had an omniscient perspective, and could convey that to the jury, then the jury would convict for manslaughter? I’m in the latter camp, but I don’t think the prosecution has enough evidence to disprove self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt for all of the 6 jurors. Just confused what you mean by ‘factually guilty’. I don’t think that a jury would be able to convict for manslaughter with the evidence we have, given Florida’s apportionment of the burden of proof and how much proof the state needs. Me, I can’t decide whether **Odesio** ’s right, or whether the jury will acquit outright. They could always fail to come to a verdict, and what fun that will be. If the jury finds him guilty, I don’t see a JMOL being granted for the defense by this judge, looking at her pre-trial rulings. I _can_ see the FL 5th COA overturning, (after Zimmerman’s gone to jail and the hotheads have calmed down). Whether they’d overturn due to _Montijo_ or just by saying that a reasonable juror would have a doubt that the prosecution was able to disprove one of the elements of Zimmerman’s self-defense claim, I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Mauvaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mauvaise/32/11084_2.png) [@Mauvaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mauvaise)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/15 "2013-06-21T16:27:57Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I think Zimmerman is factually innocent of second degree murder. > I think he’s factually guilty of manslaughter. As an armchair lawyer only (and the daughter of a real one) this is what I believe too. Does Florida not allow charging with multiple things so a jury can find in the lesser charge? Or was this just the prosecutor’s choice? ---
**Author:** ![DrumBum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e79b87/32.png) [@DrumBum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrumBum)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/16 "2013-06-21T16:48:58Z")
I have only followed this case through a few TV stories ( BBC and SkyNews ) and random browsing of comments in this massive thread but my vote is “guilty but will get acquitted.” It seems that cases like this - OJ Simpson, Casey Anthony - end with similar results. Perhaps it is as \*\*Bricker \*\*noted that the wrong charge was used. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/17 "2013-06-21T17:05:26Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > I don’t like the word “innocent” in the poll. I prefer the term “not guilty”. That said, from the options provided, I voted for “I think GZ is innocent but the jury will convict.” Call me cynical. > [@Bricker](#): > > I think Zimmerman is factually innocent of second degree murder. > I think he’s factually guilty of manslaughter. > > Since the jury doesn’t have the choice of manslaughter, they should acquit, and I believe they will. > > No vote on the poll quite captures that option. Frickin lawyers are why we need lawyers.. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/18 "2013-06-21T17:08:08Z")
I voted “Something else”. I don’t know what evidence will be presented in court, whether the prosecution has something up its sleeve, or anything else. Based on the evidence to date, the judge should grant the motion to dismiss when the prosecution rests, unless that is not enough to immunize Zimmerman from civil action. If it isn’t, then a directed verdict of Not Guilty and an official finding that he acted in self-defense would be the best outcome, for Zimmerman and the cause of justice. Based on what we know to date, Zimmerman is factually innocent, and **should** be found not guilty. Whether that translates to **being** found not guilty remains to be seen. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Zyanthia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Zyanthia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyanthia)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/19 "2013-06-21T17:16:04Z")
I think he is guilty of manslaughter, but since that is not what he has been charged with, I think he will be found not-guilty of second-degree murder. So I was another ‘something else’ vote. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2013, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528/20 "2013-06-21T17:17:55Z")
barring something new I voted innocent and jury voting same. There should be an identical poll before the verdict is given after the full evidence is given since we only have what was released by the defense. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-the-outcome-of-florida-vs-george-zimmerman/661528.md?page=2)