# Predict turnout and share by demographic group. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 4, 2016, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585 "2016-11-04T03:08:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/1 "2016-11-04T03:08:14Z")
To refresh memories here, courtesy of [538’s fun “Swing the Election” app](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/), are the turnout and shares of major demographic groups in 2012: Non-college educated White: turnout 55% 60%R College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%R Black: turnout 63% 93%D Hispanic/Latino: turnout 47% 71%D Asian/Other: turnout 48% 69%D Predict how it will be different this cycle. No prizes to the closest though! My guesses include marginally increased turnout of non-college educated Whites, stable to marginally decrease in college-educated Whites and Blacks, significantly increased Hispanic and a marginal increase among Asian groups. Finals of the two-party vote to be: Non-college educated White: turnout 57% 65%R College-educated White: turnout 78% 54%D (an 8 point flip) Black: turnout 63% 93%D Hispanic/Latino: turnout 57% 78%D Asian/Other: turnout 50% 70%D If so then the Swing-o-matic results in an EV of Clinton 374 to 164 with an approximately 8 to 9 point margin in the two-party vote. That’s seems a bit much but it is with AZ by only 0.1% and GA by 0.5% so I can see local variation flipping them the other way with my overall prediction. It does have Ohio Blue though. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/2 "2016-11-04T04:22:55Z")
Let me think on that one a little, because when I did mine, Trump got 357 electoral votes. But it is interesting how even small changes can create huge results. I didn’t move any turnout or vote % predictions more than 10%. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/3 "2016-11-04T14:17:06Z")
I ended up with 405EVs for Hillary, 54-40. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/4 "2016-11-04T15:07:26Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I ended up with 405EVs for Hillary, 54-40. What did you predict for each group’s turnout and share? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/5 "2016-11-05T02:45:21Z")
All right, here’s my numbers, since I can never resist making a prediction: Non-college educated White: turnout 59% 70%R College-educated White: turnout 76% 48%D Black: turnout 58% 91%D Hispanic/Latino: turnout 51% 68%D Asian/Other: turnout 52% 65%D This results in a huge landslide for Trump though, so I’m obviously totally wrong here. But it’ll be interesting to at least see where I went most wrong. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2016, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-turnout-and-share-by-demographic-group/770585/6 "2016-11-28T12:27:24Z")
I’m not sure about turnout rates yet, but it turned out I gave Trump too many whites and not enough minorities. Whudda thunk?