# Predict what Nate Silver's final projection will be **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 31, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482 "2012-10-31T20:55:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/1 "2012-10-31T20:55:15Z")
Thought it would be fun to predict the predictions. As we get closer to the election, there will be less chance for outside chances to sway things. Do you think Obama will go into Tuesday with an 80% chance, 60%, 99%? He’s currently projecting Obama at 77.4% to Romney’s 22.6%. Personally, I think that if the polling is similar as it is now next week - Silver’s model will push Obama to the high 90s, 97-98% by Monday. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/2 "2012-10-31T20:57:16Z")
My prediction for the prediction: 81% Obama ---
**Author:** ![Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/regallag_the_axe/32/445_2.png) [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Regallag_The_Axe)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/3 "2012-10-31T21:01:09Z")
This is waaaay to meta. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/4 "2012-10-31T21:06:37Z")
I predict that peoples predictions in this thread of Nate Silver’s final prediction will average 79% chance of Obama victory. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/5 "2012-10-31T21:11:34Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I predict that peoples predictions in this thread of Nate Silver’s final prediction will average 79% chance of Obama victory. OK, but don’t include your prediction of the predictions of Nate’s prediction in your tally of the prediction of Nate’s predictions. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/6 "2012-10-31T21:11:53Z")
I predict the next prediction of SDMB’s average prediction of Nate’s final prediction will be 82%. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/7 "2012-10-31T21:15:00Z")
> [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](#): > > This is waaaay to meta. You still have time to start a blog aggregating the aggregators. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/8 "2012-10-31T21:16:30Z")
> [@digs](#): > > You still have time to start a blog aggregating the aggregators. Amazingly enough, that’s what at least part of Nate Silver’s post today was about - an aggregation of the aggregators. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/9 "2012-10-31T21:24:33Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I predict that peoples predictions in this thread of Nate Silver’s final prediction will average 79% chance of Obama victory. If we had another person willing to predict the final average SDMB projection of Nate’s projection, then we could aggregate those. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/10 "2012-10-31T21:25:24Z")
Come on guys, no need to hijack this. It’s a serious question about what we might expect the odds to look like at election time. Will we be going into next Tuesday with a nail biter on our hands, or will it seem fairly certain. If you don’t want to participate, then don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/11 "2012-10-31T21:30:44Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Come on guys, no need to hijack this. It’s a serious question about what we might expect the odds to look like at election time. Will we be going into next Tuesday with a nail biter on our hands, or will it seem fairly certain. If you don’t want to participate, then don’t. I’m in the fairly certain camp at this point. I predict Nate will end with an 87% probability for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/12 "2012-10-31T21:30:55Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Come on guys, no need to hijack this. It’s a serious question about what we might expect the odds to look like at election time. Will we be going into next Tuesday with a nail biter on our hands, or will it seem fairly certain. If you don’t want to participate, then don’t. After today’s polls are added to the equation, expect a big leap in Obama’s favor. Every poll is moving to Obama, and the velocity seems to be increasing. I’m guessing that today’s update from 538 will show Obama over 80% again. I’m guessing Romney’s campaign knows it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/13 "2012-10-31T22:27:33Z")
82% in Obama’s favor by Monday. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/14 "2012-10-31T22:32:27Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I’m guessing Romney’s campaign knows it’s over. Judging by Christie’s actions in recent days, I think a lot of people know that the insiders know that the Romney campaign knows that it is over. But, I’m just guessing about that. What day are we predicting the prediction on? Monday noon, Tuesday morning, Tuesday night? As externals are factored out, the prediction is going to swing further to one direction or the other. I say that Tuesday (pre-voting) it will be at 87% ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/15 "2012-10-31T23:09:00Z")
I believe Nate’s computer model will go a bit high just before election day - 91%. The model will also go high on the electoral number - probably over 300 for Obama. My guess is closer to 298. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/16 "2012-10-31T23:11:02Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > I believe Nate’s computer model will go a bit high just before election day - 91%. > > The model will also go high on the electoral number - probably over 300 for Obama. My guess is closer to 298. > > Crane It’s already at 299. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2012, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/17 "2012-10-31T23:13:19Z")
I think the actual will be 298. I suspect the computer will go up to 320 or so. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Trion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ccd318/32.png) [@Trion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trion)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/18 "2012-11-01T01:12:36Z")
Project not with pollsters, lest ye become a pollster, and if you gaze into the statistical minutia, the … um … You know what? That kind of got away from me there. ---
**Author:** ![MilTan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/71e660/32.png) [@MilTan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MilTan)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/19 "2012-11-01T01:24:56Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I’m guessing that today’s update from 538 will show Obama over 80% again. Almost. Silver updated about 15 minutes ago, and Obama’s up to 78.4% in the forecast (though he is above 80% in the now-cast, he was over 80% just three days ago, too). ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/20 "2012-11-01T01:26:09Z")
Honestly I won’t be happy unless it’s 99% Obama to win. Even 1% chance of Romney winning is too much for me to sit comfortably. I just really hope they are able to call Ohio, Virginia or possibly Florida early in the night for Obama and then I can relax. So, I predict 99.99999999% for Obama because I want to be optimistic 😃 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482.md?page=2)