# Predict what Nate Silver's final projection will be

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 31, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482 "2012-10-31T20:55:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/41 "2012-11-06T11:18:00Z")

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His explanation of the late move up in FL was indeed “trendline adjustment”

> [@](#):
>
> If Mr. Obama has gained a point or two nationally because of Hurricane Sandy or other factors, then polls taken before it may underestimate his standing in the individual states as well.
> 
> The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility through its trendline adjustment, which is why our forecasts now are slightly more optimistic for Mr. Obama in some states than a simple average of polls. Had there been evidence of late movement toward Mr. Romney, the trendline adjustment would instead have worked in his favor.

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**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/42 "2012-11-06T14:41:54Z")

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> [@El\_Kabong](#):
>
> 82% in Obama’s favor by Monday.

…aaaaand it actually comes in at 91.6%. Nostradamus I ain’t.

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**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/43 "2012-11-06T15:36:27Z")

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> [@El\_Kabong](#):
>
> …aaaaand it actually comes in at 91.6%. Nostradamus I ain’t.

Actually, it’s 90.9%. There was another simulation he ran with some updated Florida numbers. FL is a dead heat. His simulation is showing 49.797, Romney 49.775.

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**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/44 "2012-11-06T15:38:17Z")

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He just dropped it to 90.9%. Exactly when does he stop calculating anyway?

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**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-what-nate-silvers-final-projection-will-be/639482/45 "2012-11-06T15:45:12Z")

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> [@Siam\_Sam](#):
>
> He just dropped it to 90.9%. Exactly when does he stop calculating anyway?

When all the polls are done. I suspect that they’re all done now.

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