# Predict: Will Scotland vote to secede? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 17, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705 "2014-09-17T03:03:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/61 "2014-09-18T08:11:38Z")
> [@Celyn](#): > > I’m curious as to why “yes” would win because of postal ballots. Why would that be the case? I can’t speak for **Namkcalb** , but one theory might be that the Yes campaign has been better organised overall, but the No campaign has made the best arguments over the last few days. Therefore postal votes (the vast majority of which will have already been cast, usually several days ago) may be more likely to be Yes votes. > [@manila](#): > > I think yes. > > And why not? Can’t see a downside for an individual. They will keep their UK passports for themselves and the next generation so they will have all the travel rights of member of the EU. Is this guaranteed? > [@](#): > > If it goes pear shaped they can amble off across the border. Maybe some will be able to, most won’t - house prices in England are already significantly higher than those in Scotland (though to be fair, if you compare Scotland to England North of, say, Manchester, it might be closer - but how many people are going to want to move from Edinburgh to Middlesbrough?), this differential is only going to increase in the event of a yes vote. Not to mention it being somewhat illogical to vote for independence for the country you (presumably) love, with the back up plan of leaving it altogether if things go wrong. > [@](#): > > It won’t however go pear shaped as the surrounding countries will be better off with a healthy Scottish neighbour so will bail them out as necessary. Which is an excellent argument for voting No, to ensure this is guaranteed rather than reliant on goodwill. The only country “surrounding” Scotland is England (or the rest of the UK if you include sea borders), once North Sea oil and gas runs out I can’t see England being too bothered if Scotland goes to the wall (in the event of a yes vote). ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/62 "2014-09-18T08:43:06Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I can’t speak for **Namkcalb** , but one theory might be that the Yes campaign has been better organised overall, but the No campaign has made the best arguments over the last few days. Therefore postal votes (the vast majority of which will have already been cast, usually several days ago) may be more likely to be Yes votes. Polls seem to show the opposite, with the Yes campaign making the strongest gains in the last few days. No was 10 points ahead last month so presumably postal votes should help the No campaign more. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/63 "2014-09-18T08:55:41Z")
> [@Celyn](#): > > I’m curious as to why “yes” would win because of postal ballots. Why would that be the case? Because I believe Yes-voters are more passionate, and thus more likely to go to the effort of a postal vote. ---
**Author:** ![bucketybuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@bucketybuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bucketybuck)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/64 "2014-09-18T09:15:20Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > But of all times in history to seek independence, why NOW, when it’s never mattered less? I guess you could argue thats the perfect time to do it, because it might actually work. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/65 "2014-09-18T09:25:38Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > Polls seem to show the opposite, with the Yes campaign making the strongest gains in the last few days. No was 10 points ahead last month so presumably postal votes should help the No campaign more. Yes, fair point. > [@Namkcalb](#): > > Because I believe Yes-voters are more passionate, and thus more likely to go to the effort of a postal vote. Agreed that Yes voters are more passionate, but I’m not sure the inference follows - personally, I usually apply for a postal vote (not for this election as I’m not eligible to vote, being an Englander) because to me it seems easier to vote this way than have to queue up at a polling station on a specific day when I’m likely to be working as well as other activities. It’s extremely easy to apply for a postal vote so I don’t really see the downside (except I suppose it does slightly increase the risk of electoral fraud). Also, it’s possible to simply drop your postal vote in at a ballot box at a polling station on voting day, should you happen to fail to post it in time. As such, I don’t know why more people don’t apply for a postal vote. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/66 "2014-09-18T11:30:56Z")
> [@ZenBeam](#): > > Is local time GMT? That would make it from 3 am to 6 pm here. Do they use daylight savings time? Sorry, should have said. The UK is currently on GMT+1. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/67 "2014-09-18T12:23:20Z")
I reckon it’s too close to call. I’ve placed a bet that the margin of victory will be less than 1%. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/68 "2014-09-18T12:24:34Z")
> [@Namkcalb](#): > > Because I believe Yes-voters are more passionate, and thus more likely to go to the effort of a postal vote. I predict that turnout will be massive, over 85% and possibly near 90%. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/69 "2014-09-18T12:25:30Z")
I predict a clear “no” victory. I think the narrowing if the polls right before the vote is pretty typical but it almost always is illusory. ---
**Author:** ![manila](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@manila](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manila)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/70 "2014-09-18T12:58:01Z")
Well Betfair, an internet bookmaker has stated it is already paying out on people who have bet for a no vote, so confident that this will be the outcome. How strange ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/71 "2014-09-18T13:18:17Z")
> [@manila](#): > > Well Betfair, an internet bookmaker has stated it is already paying out on people who have bet for a no vote, so confident that this will be the outcome. > > How strange They do that from time to time for publicity. I seem to recall them or another UK bookmaker doing the same thing for the US elections, ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/72 "2014-09-18T13:20:50Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I reckon it’s too close to call. I’ve placed a bet that the margin of victory will be less than 1%. I hope you got odds of 10-1 against or better, I think this is a losing proposition - best of luck though! > [@manila](#): > > Well Betfair, an internet bookmaker has stated it is already paying out on people who have bet for a no vote, so confident that this will be the outcome. > > How strange Bookmakers (at least in the UK) often do this as a publicity stunt - clearly it’s not the best thing for them from a purely mathematical point of view, but if they believe such a thing is extremely likely, it buys them a bit of (potentially) free marketing/goodwill. I assume it works something like this - let’s say they stand to ‘win’ £1million on “No” bets should the result be “Yes”, and they assess the probably of “Yes” winning is 10%. Therefore by paying out ‘winning’ “No” bets before the fact, the cost to them is effectively £100,000 (because that’s what, in the long run, they would expect to ‘lose’ by unnecessarily paying out on those “No” bets should “Yes” in fact be the outcome). I know there is no “long run” for this particular event, but their whole business is based on the overall “long run”. If the betting firm decides the value of the associated publicity and goodwill is more than £100,000, they may decide it is a good bet :). Caveats to this: firstly, any of those numbers could easily by wrong by an order of magnitude or more, but hopefully they illustrate the principle. Secondly, I have never worked at a bookmaker so have no idea if this is how it actually works, would be great if someone could confirm or deny it. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/73 "2014-09-18T14:39:41Z")
Even though it doesn’t affect me in the slightest, as far as I know, I hope it will be “No.” Australia had a Republic Referendum about fifteen years ago, and it was a No, but that was partially because of the way [the question was worded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_republic_referendum,_1999#Aftermath) on the forms, a subtlety. But I suspect that it would’ve been a No anyway, and for the same arbitrary feeling I think that’s what will happen with Scotland. I’m not very good with political predictions, though. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/74 "2014-09-18T14:42:12Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I hope you got odds of 10-1 against or better, I think this is a losing proposition - best of luck though! I got 20:1. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/75 "2014-09-18T21:50:04Z")
[One exit poll\* is putting it at 54% NO and 46% YES.](http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/18/scottish-referendum-results-live-coverage-of-the-independence-vote#block-541b4e95e4b06074cd7171cc) \*Apparently, not entirely a properly run exit poll, so we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/76 "2014-09-19T03:24:14Z")
BBC reporting: No 381,025 Yes 335,482 After 12 of 32 counts It was within 6,000 about an hour ago, and I don’t know the districts well enough to anticipate the direction each will go in. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/77 "2014-09-19T03:29:37Z")
The biggest ones, Glasgow and Edinburgh, will be some of the last to complete their counts, and may very well be the deciding voters. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/78 "2014-09-19T03:40:51Z")
At slightly more than half (17/32): No: 670,354 Yes: 521,441 ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/79 "2014-09-19T03:41:18Z")
After 17 of 32 counts No winning by 150,000 Fat lady is warming up and she’s not wearing a kilt. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/80 "2014-09-19T03:44:23Z")
I can still wear a badger sporran, though, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705.md?page=5)