# Predict: Will Scotland vote to secede? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 17, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705 "2014-09-17T03:03:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/81 "2014-09-19T03:48:44Z")
> [@susan](#): > > I can still wear a badger sporran, though, right? If you can get the badger to give it to you. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/82 "2014-09-19T03:50:57Z")
I take what I like from the mighty badger. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/83 "2014-09-19T03:55:27Z")
CNN is saying "No " still has a slight lead. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/84 "2014-09-19T03:57:41Z")
If by “slight” they mean 200,000 votes. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/85 "2014-09-19T04:05:10Z")
BBC TV is calling a “No” outcome “increasingly likely.” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/86 "2014-09-19T04:18:36Z")
The Inverclyde Council vote should be noted: 62,481 votes cast. 86 vote difference. NO 27,329 50.08% YES 27,243 49.92% That’s one close vote. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/87 "2014-09-19T04:24:39Z")
Too late to vote here, but before the polls closed in Scotland I discussed what’s going on with some friends and said I thought (and hoped) that NO would win. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/88 "2014-09-19T04:33:09Z")
And so it ends apparently. I’m very happy the “no” vote is going to win; I didn’t think it would turn out this way, but am very glad that it did. Calmer heads prevailed. ---
**Author:** ![SandyHook](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dec6dc/32.png) [@SandyHook](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SandyHook)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/89 "2014-09-19T04:36:34Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > At slightly more than half (17/32): > > No: 670,354 > Yes: 521,441 Right in line with my earlier prediction of 55 - 45. Let me know when you want to know what’s going to happen.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/90 "2014-09-19T04:56:29Z")
Yeah solid No. Am crestfallen beyond belief in a way I never thought I’d be. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/91 "2014-09-19T04:57:19Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > I’m very happy the “no” vote is going to win; I didn’t think it would turn out this way, but am very glad that it did. Calmer heads prevailed. Agreed, although I’m a little disappointed that Maggie Thatcher won’t go down in history as the woman who killed the United Kingdom. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/92 "2014-09-19T05:00:53Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > Yeah solid No. Am crestfallen beyond belief in a way I never thought I’d be. Might I ask why? ---
**Author:** ![Cunctator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/43a26b/32.png) [@Cunctator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cunctator)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/93 "2014-09-19T05:15:03Z")
It’s a pity the NO vote wasn’t more decisive. Still the sensible outcome though. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/94 "2014-09-19T07:02:57Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I got 20:1. Fair enough - that was a good bet, I’d have been tempted at those odds, bad luck this time. > [@Leaffan](#): > > Might I ask why? I’d be interested as well - are you an Irish Republican and therefore were thinking a Yes vote might help that cause? Surely that ship has sailed now (as in, I can’t see there being a united Ireland in my lifetime). ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/95 "2014-09-19T07:39:49Z")
So it looks like the final result is something like 54% to 46%. In our poll it’s 75% to 25%. I know it’s not the same question, but I’ll still take it as evidence that Dopers are smarter than Scotsmen. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 8:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/96 "2014-09-19T08:04:06Z")
It was only the Central Belt (and Dundee) that really voted Yes. Pretty much everywhere else solidly voted No. I voted No too. But it’s been a colossal victory for democracy. It’s had people engaged as never before. ---
**Author:** ![GuanoLad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guanolad/32/42_2.png) [@GuanoLad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuanoLad)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/97 "2014-09-19T08:13:35Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But it’s been a colossal victory for democracy. It’s had people engaged as never before. 84.6% turnout, [apparently](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11106917/Scottish-independence-live-results-as-they-happen.html). ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/98 "2014-09-19T08:54:18Z")
I doubt this is over - although I think the no vote is the right one at this precise moment in time, this outcome has shown that it’s pretty close. A Yes vote probably exists somewhere in Scotland’s future - hopefully the interval between now and that time will be used to properly identify any genuine causes for concern underlying the ‘no’ votes, and resolve them. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/99 "2014-09-19T09:05:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > This comment comes up often, so this time I’ll be the one to point out that bookies don’t set odds on likelihood. They base them on how the bets are going so as to assure a profit regardless of the outcome. Clearly this can’t be the whole picture. For one thing, it would be a chicken-and-egg situation where bookies couldn’t set odds until betting begins, and betting can’t begin because no odds have been set. The reality is bookies don’t necessarily make a profit on all events; and they _do_ take into account the likelihood of events and set the odds such that they will make a profit usually / overall. As an example, note that there are many bets that are “one-way”; you can bet on some 10,000:1 event happening, but not the 1:10,000 status quo. So obviously the bookie will lose money should the unlikely event happen. But that’s OK because they set the odds lower than their real expectation, and overall make a profit from this kind (just like all other kinds) of bets. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705/100 "2014-09-19T10:04:26Z")
> [@Leaffan](#): > > Might I ask why? I am not too sure. I suppose I thought Scotland was ready to seize the democratic imperative but also, more selfishly, it makes me realise I likely won’t live to see a united Ireland. There was something peculiarly discomforting about hearing the roars and cheers when No votes came in. But what of it, it’s their country and they’re free to decide how it is run. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-will-scotland-vote-to-secede/698705.md?page=6)