# Predict your state! (Election results thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 27, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804 "2008-10-27T18:23:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/1 "2008-10-27T18:23:54Z")
Not sure if anyone has started a thread on this particular subject but figured I’d do so in case they haven’t. Last weekend I went out for early voting and while standing in line there was a discussion on how the election would go…and more specifically how our particular state would most likely end up. I won’t tell anyone how I voted (be fun to see if people could guess right), but I will say that the consensus in line was that Obama would carry the state by a small but definite margin. So, my prediction for my own particular state is that New Mexico will go for Obama. Anyone else want to predict how their state will most likely go? Not really much of a debate here, but since it concerns the election I figured this was the place for it. For bonus points predict what the final EC tally will be if you like. -XT ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/2 "2008-10-27T18:25:43Z")
I’m guessing Texas might lean towards McCain by some small margin. ---
**Author:** ![Slacker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6bbea6/32.png) [@Slacker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slacker)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/3 "2008-10-27T18:28:49Z")
Word, I’m giving McCain Texas as well, but not by much. Maybe 49% to 45%. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/4 "2008-10-27T18:31:15Z")
Mississippi will be one of the top three John McCain blowouts. Wisconsin (former home) won’t be as good for McCain as everyone seems to think, and it being a ‘swing state’ will prove to be quite incorrect. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/5 "2008-10-27T18:31:22Z")
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Illinois is going to Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Bearflag70](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Bearflag70](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bearflag70)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/6 "2008-10-27T18:31:22Z")
Obamafornia ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/7 "2008-10-27T18:31:29Z")
Mississippi will go for McCain, but not by as much as people expect; I would guess by about 5 points. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/8 "2008-10-27T18:34:31Z")
I live in Maine, so I have 4 chances to be wrong. Us, and Nebraska, I believe, are the only two states that split our electoral votes. But I do believe that all four Pine Tree State EV’s will go Obama’s way. There’s a chance that one may go to McCain, but I don’t think it will. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/9 "2008-10-27T18:34:59Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Illinois is going to Obama. I am betting you might be guessing correctly. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/10 "2008-10-27T18:41:46Z")
New York could go for Obama if conditions are right. Like the sun coming up, the Pope remaining Catholic and bears continuing to shit in the woods. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/11 "2008-10-27T18:46:13Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Illinois is going to Obama. I’ll take the dark horse and guess Obama loses! Which means that Cynthia McKinney takes it because it sure as hell won’t be McCain. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/12 "2008-10-27T18:56:06Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Wisconsin (former home) won’t be as good for McCain as everyone seems to think, and it being a ‘swing state’ will prove to be quite incorrect. Wisconsin will not be anywhere near as close as the last 2 elections were. I’m guessing Obama will take it handily. ---
**Author:** ![5\_time\_champ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/278dde/32.png) [@5\_time\_champ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5_time_champ)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/13 "2008-10-27T18:56:35Z")
As Missouri goes, so goes the nation- I am very cautiously optimistic that Barack Obama will eke out a narrow victory in the Show Me state. ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/14 "2008-10-27T19:02:39Z")
If McCain can’t win in Arizona, he’s in trouble. He’s in trouble anyway, but he’ll still take Arizona. I’ll guess by 10%. ---
**Author:** ![NinetyWt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/cc9497/32.png) [@NinetyWt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NinetyWt)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/15 "2008-10-27T19:02:59Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > Mississippi will be one of the top three John McCain blowouts. > [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Mississippi will go for McCain, but not by as much as people expect; I would guess by about 5 points. I’m with **Fretful** on this one. I get a feeling that a lot of folks are going to vote for Obama on the sly - I mean, they’d never admit to their families, friends and neighbors that they’ve done it. Secret stealth Obama votes! I went to the Miss. Republican Party’s website to see how many registered pubbies we had, but I didn’t find the info. Found this interesting [page](http://www.msgop.org/news/index.html) however. I’m not going to just pick on them, though; the Democratic [site](http://www.msdemocrats.net/history-party.htm) looks like it was put together by a bunch of drunk carnival weasels. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/16 "2008-10-27T19:15:25Z")
> [@autz](#): > > If McCain can’t win in Arizona, he’s in trouble. > > He’s in trouble anyway, but he’ll still take Arizona. I’ll guess by 10%. Breaking new **autz** , it was just on MSNBC this morning that Arizona has been taken off of strong McCain and is now “leaning” McCain! Here in Nevada, early voting so far is 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats here in heavily Democratic metropolitan Las Vegas, but more importantly, also 2 to 1 Democrat in normally heavy Republican Washoe County (Reno area)! Granted, that is just early voting, but the turnout has been amazing. With five more days of early voting to go, already more people have voted early this year than the total number of early voters in the last 2004 election. All polls are indicating **Nevada will go Obama** (about 49% Obama to 43% McCain), but I think it might even be a somewhat larger percentage for Obama than the polls are predicting . ---
**Author:** ![E.Thorp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/898d66/32.png) [@E.Thorp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E.Thorp)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/17 "2008-10-27T19:16:38Z")
In Washington state, McCain will get a lot of votes east of the Cascade Mountains. But metro Seattle will go overwhelmingly, stupidly, ridiculously for Obama and he’ll take the state. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/18 "2008-10-27T19:31:58Z")
Obama easily wins New York, As for as a final tally, I’ll say 390. I’m going to guess big! He wins: FL, GA, NC, VA, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, NH, VT, ME, OH, IN, IL, MI, MN, WI, MO, IA, CA, OR, WA, HI, CO, NM, and NV. I feel that the biggest stretches here are GA, IN, and FL. I’m thinking that it’s possible but who knows? This is of course barring any kind of huge game changers coming up. I could have added MT, and ND but I doubt that will happen. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/19 "2008-10-27T19:32:18Z")
Ohio will go… Urk. I don’t know. This state is really hard to predict. I’m going to predict that Ohio goes McCain and that it won’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/20 "2008-10-27T19:34:39Z")
I think (and hope) Pennsylvania will go to Obama. I think Maryland (where I was born) will, too. Also California, where I lived for nine years. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804.md?page=2)