# Predict your state! (Election results thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 27, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804 "2008-10-27T18:23:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/41 "2008-10-27T22:19:08Z")
When I went to vote here in New Mexico weekend before last (and in Rio Rancho at the court house there…which isn’t exactly the center of the world out here) there were about 100(!!) people in line waiting to vote. And my understanding is that this last weekend it was about the same (some friends of mine voted early last weekend). So…yeah, I think a lot more people are voting (here at least) than before. -XT ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/42 "2008-10-27T22:33:48Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > I’ll post again what I posted in the “Forked” thread: > > I am handling some poll-watching duties for the Obama campaign in Georgia. This is the day that advance voting opens up on a broad basis here. (There had been one or two polls open per county before this week.) > > This morning I went to pick up my badge from county election officials. There was a sign-in sheet for poll watchers. Emblematic of Obama’s superior organization, 12 official Obama poll watchers had signed in and picked up their badges, while McCain had…0. > > I stopped by two polling stations to check for problems. _The lines were absolutely astonishing._ I counted approximately 500 people waiting to vote at each polling place, and this was mid-afternoon, the time of day when even on the principle election day, lines are usually reduced to a dribble. > > I can promise you that the people I saw were not waiting for three hours to vote McCain. 😃 > > Meanwhile, my just-turned-18 nephew is champing at the bit to vote for Obama, as are many of his friends. They are planning to vote early. Now these are kids from Atlanta’s Republican suburbs, many of whose parents support McCain. They have been squabbling with their parents over politics for weeks – and tuning in nightly to the Daily Show. This is a cohort I believe pollsters are missing. The kids are _voting_ this year. > > Another factor: I have quite a lot of Republican friends, and _none_ of them are enthusiastic about McCain. I have a sneaky feeling that when they show up at the polls on election day and see a line stretching around the block, they might just decide that voting for McCain is not worth the wait. > > Look for an Obama upset in Georgia, and look for Saxby Chambliss(R) to lose his Senate seat to Jim Martin(D). > > If I am wrong, _I blame Diebold_! 😛 Same here. I went to Boca Raton City Hall on other business, but early voting is going on at the next door community center. Traffic was backed up outside the parking lot, and cars were parked 1/2 mile down the street on each side. I know because I walked that 1/2 mile. Obama supporters lined the whole way, waving signs. There was nary a McCain worker in sight. When I got to city hall, the line was astonishing. If you don’t know the area, I couldn’t really describe it accurately, but the security guard inside said that they had been averaging 2 1/2 hour wait times to vote, IN THE MORNING. There is still the rest of this week, and Monday to vote and people are that excited about this election. And the excited people are not McCain supporters. I couldn’t believe the line. Every fifth or so person had an Obama T-shirt, hat, sticker, something. It looked like a line into a sporting event with all of the people wearing these colors. Now, keep in mind that this is Palm Beach County and Kerry and Gore won with over 67 percent of the vote each time, and Obama will probably win with 75. But I have never seen this kind of support. Never. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/43 "2008-10-27T22:59:45Z")
McCain will carry Oklahoma. Won’t even be close. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/44 "2008-10-27T23:22:28Z")
I’m in California. The only person I can think of that thinks McCain will win here is the fool writing to the Mercury News a few weeks back who’s practically in love with him and thinks McCain will win every state. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/45 "2008-10-27T23:25:09Z")
Based on the polls I expect Obama will take Florida, but only by a whisker, and there might be some nasty fights over voter challenges (see [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=488875)). ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/46 "2008-10-27T23:28:29Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Illinois is going to Obama. I’ll top that. Hawaii to Obama. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/47 "2008-10-27T23:30:45Z")
McCain had better thank his lucky stars there is an anti same sex marriage amendment on the ballot in AZ which will help his turnout. Sure, McCain would win without the amendment, but I don’t think he wants AZ to be close at all. The results of the election will probably be known while AZ is still voting if trends continue as they are. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/48 "2008-10-27T23:46:06Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > McCain had better thank his lucky stars there is an anti same sex marriage amendment on the ballot in AZ which will help his turnout. Sure, McCain would win without the amendment, but I don’t think he wants AZ to be close at all. The results of the election will probably be known while AZ is still voting if trends continue as they are. Enhhh… The latest polls show AZ to be within the margin of error sometimes. I’m not so sure McCain can be guaranteed victory there. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/49 "2008-10-27T23:51:16Z")
Idaho to McCain by a landslide. Easy. ---
**Author:** ![amarinth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@amarinth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarinth)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/50 "2008-10-27T23:52:48Z")
Washington for Obama, by 2-6, once all the counting is done. I-1000, I-985, and the Governor’s race (which Rossi(GOP) will win) combined with the higher voter turnout in the pink to red-red counties that we saw in the primaries and will continue in the main election means it’ll be closer than some people are predicting. Plus, absentee doesn’t even have to be postmarked until election day. When the dust clears, it’ll be Obama, but it isn’t a blowout. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/51 "2008-10-27T23:53:36Z")
Per my esteemed colleagues Mssrs. **Knorf** and **Thorp** , Washington State will fall for Obama like a drunken sorority girl. Much more interesting, in this state, is the fact that despite the overwhelming wave of Obama support, there’s a George Bush clone who has a fifty-fifty shot at winning the governor’s seat away from the Democratic incumbent. It’s a weird, weird year. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2008, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/52 "2008-10-27T23:56:56Z")
North Carolina will fall to Obama by 3-4%. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/53 "2008-10-28T00:08:27Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Much more interesting, in this state, is the fact that despite the overwhelming wave of Obama support, there’s a George Bush clone who has a fifty-fifty shot at winning the governor’s seat away from the Democratic incumbent. I’m betting the current trial going on, and his testimony therein, will hurt his chances. But hell, I don’t live there. [off-topic]Why is it that Mississippi and Georgia are weak McCain, possible victims of a blue wave, but Alabama is very firmly McCain, to the tune of a 20 point lead?[/ot] ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/54 "2008-10-28T00:49:19Z")
> [@](#): > > [off-topic]Why is it that Mississippi and Georgia are weak McCain, possible victims of a blue wave, but Alabama is very firmly McCain, to the tune of a 20 point lead?[/ot] Because Alabama doesn’t have anything like the Atlanta megalopolis, so it’s more conservative than Georgia. And Mississippi is something like 38% black, which means that if a Mississippi Dem can get 1/4 of the white vote, he wins. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/55 "2008-10-28T00:55:22Z")
Maryland, where I live now, is solid for Obama. Nobody’s even polled the state in well over a month. Virginia, where I have spent most of my life, will go Obama, going Dem for the first time since 1964. Even Jimmy Carter, who won every other Southern state in 1976, didn’t win Virginia. California, where I was born: much safer than houses. Ditto Connecticut, where I went to college. New Hampshire, where I lived and worked for a few months one fall, will go Obama too. South Carolina, where I earned my doctorate, will vote for McCain, as will Tennessee, where I taught for five years. (But lived across the state line in Virginia during that time. Never lived in TN, thank goodness.) ---
**Author:** ![moonstarssun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@moonstarssun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moonstarssun)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/56 "2008-10-28T00:55:41Z")
Wisconsin’s gonna go blue by a comfortable margin. ---
**Author:** ![truthbot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@truthbot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthbot)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/57 "2008-10-28T00:56:14Z")
I predict Oregon will go for Obama. Hell, even mr. bot, the “Dyed in the Wool Republican” that voted for Dubya _twice_ has already cast his ballot for Obama. He made me take an oath not to tell his poker buddies or the neighbors that he has gone to the Dark Side\* \*and by the Dark Side, I mean hippie-commie-pinko ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/58 "2008-10-28T00:59:27Z")
> [@Merkwurdigliebe](#): > > Obama easily wins New York, As for as a final tally, I’ll say 390. I’m going to guess big! He wins: > > FL, GA, NC, VA, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, NH, VT, ME, OH, IN, IL, MI, MN, WI, MO, IA, CA, OR, WA, HI, CO, NM, and NV. My longshot scenario: Those plus MT, ND, and either AZ, WV, or AR. 400 and change. That’s not honestly my prediction though. Put me down for: HI CA OR WA NV CO NM NM IA MO MI WI IL IN OH ME NH VT NY MA CT RI PA NJ MD DE DC VA NC and FL, plus either MT or ND. 1. Minimum plus 103. ---
**Author:** ![Burton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Burton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Burton)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/59 "2008-10-28T00:59:43Z")
I live in Maryland so it’ll be Obama however my county will probably have a majority for McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804/60 "2008-10-28T01:01:26Z")
Since people are including where they grew up as well, I’d like to predict that Nevada will go to Obama by 2%. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predict-your-state-election-results-thread/469804.md?page=4)