# Predicting Cameron's Avatar: Waterworld or Titanic? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 1, 2009, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638 "2009-12-01T23:29:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2009, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/301 "2009-12-23T16:59:19Z")
Looks like I’ll be going to see it tomorrow. Going in with high expectations for the visuals and low expectations for character, story, and subtlety, so hopefully at worst I’ll be no more disappointed then I’m already planning for. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2009, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/302 "2009-12-23T18:56:14Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > BTW the word avatar has been part of the English language decades before the Beatles. Time Magazine has its entire archive of articles going back to 1930. [Search](http://search.time.com/results.html?N=0&Nty=1&Ntt=avatar&p=0&cmd=tags&srchCat=Full+Archive&Nf=p_date_range%7CBTWN+19300101+19591231)for the use of the word avatar before 1960 and you can find several examples. > > For example an article from 1930: > > Note the way the word is used without explanation suggesting that readers would have understood its meaning. That’s not surprising since ideas from Hindu philosophy have influenced Western intellectuals for centuries. Schopenhauer and Emerson to give two famous examples. I still blame the New Agers. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Shot\_From\_Guns](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ccd318/32.png) [@Shot\_From\_Guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shot_From_Guns)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2009, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/303 "2009-12-23T20:12:05Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I still blame the New Agers. 😉 Can’t we just agree to hate them for \*other \*reasons? ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2009, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/304 "2009-12-23T20:19:59Z")
> [@Shot\_From\_Guns](#): > > Can’t we just agree to hate them for \*other \*reasons? If they popularized the word avatar, I surely wouldn’t hate or blame them for it. It’s a great word and has found use in many of my favorite works of fiction. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2009, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/305 "2009-12-23T20:52:38Z")
> [@Shot\_From\_Guns](#): > > Can’t we just agree to hate them for \*other \*reasons? No, I don’t hate New Agers. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2009, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/306 "2009-12-26T08:24:21Z")
Avatar has continued to do well during the week and now there are [estimates](http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/)of 24 million on Friday and 70 million for the US weekend which would be sensational. Right now a US gross of 400 million is looking pretty reasonable. Avatar has continued to do well globally as well with a strong opening in Japan. A total of 1 billion worldwide (including the US) is looking pretty reasonable as well. I still think there is an outside chance of Avatar continuing very strongly in January and February and really challenging The Dark Knight and even Titanic at the top of the all-time US boxoffice. It should get a decent number of Oscar nominations in February including BP ( now increased to 10 nominations) which will keep the buzz going. I also think it’s the kind of movie which many people will want to see 2 or 3 times. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2009, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/307 "2009-12-26T11:58:45Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I also think it’s the kind of movie which many people will want to see 2 or 3 times. I’ve seen it twice already, in 3D first, then in 2D (it held up beautifully and was even more emotional for me the 2nd time) and I plan to see it again at the IMAX. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2009, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/308 "2009-12-26T16:30:16Z")
I am also planning to watch it twice more in the same combination and I rarely watch movies in the theater more than once. It’s good to know that the 2-D version held up well. I personally don’t have any doubts on that score but I remember someone on the other thread speculating that the DVD/blu ray version wouldn’t sell well because people wouldn’t want to watch a 2D version. My guess is that this will be a huge home video hit and perhaps the highest-selling blu ray title till now. Whenever we have a 3-D format available on home video it will be a hit on that as well. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2009, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/309 "2009-12-27T22:57:37Z")
> [@Just\_Some\_Guy](#): > > So Avatar hits in a few weeks and everyone’s wondering if it’ll be a situation like Titanic where Cameron spent a lot of money and it worked out well or if it’ll be the next Waterworld (or Heaven’s Gate if you like). > > So let’s get our early predictions in! > > I almost titled this thread as “How much of a bomb will Avatar be?” since with it’s roughly 500 million budget it will have to be the biggest film of all time to do well for the studio. I’m going to predict a “disappointing” $70 million opening that implodes immediately on word of mouth. Total box office of less than $150 million in the end. > > What about you? Sorry the thread didn’t work out for you. 😛 It made your total box office prediction in its opening weekend. It’s been out 10 days and has [made over half a billion dollars](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avatar.htm), $615,168,000 Worldwide so far, and as is obvious by now, word of mouth is tremendously positive. [‘Avatar’ And ‘Sherlock’ Crush Box Office, Break Weekend Record](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/27/avatar-and-sherlock-crush_n_404310.html) > [@](#): > > NEW YORK — It was a memorable and merry Christmas in Hollywood as moviegoers shattered box-office records, responding in droves to a diverse array of high-profile releases over the holiday weekend. > > The estimated $278 million in weekend box-office revenue broke the previous record of roughly $253 million set in July 2008, the weekend “The Dark Knight” was released. > > A diverse group of films drew throngs to the multiplexes: James Cameron’s “Avatar” pushed strongly into its second week while “Sherlock Holmes,” “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” and “It’s Complicated” all opened. > > **“Avatar,” the 3-D epic, topped them all, earning $75 million for 20th Century Fox, according to studio estimates Sunday. Remarkably, that was only a 3 percent drop from its opening weekend total of $77.4 million. (Blockbusters typically drop 30-50 percent in the second weekend.) In its 10 days of release, “Avatar” has made $212 million domestically – and could be on its way to a worldwide gross of over $1 billion**. > > “This thing is going to be playing and playing, I can tell you that,” said Bert Livingston, 20th Century Fox distribution executive. “There’s a lot of business out there. Everybody’s got good movies out.” > > In second was “Sherlock Holmes,” Guy Ritchie’s reboot of the franchise with Robert Downey Jr. starring as Arthur Conan Doyle’s detective. The Warner Bros. film opened with a weekend total of $65.4 million, including a record Christmas Day debut of $24.9 million. > > …[much more at link] **Lantern** , it does hold up in 2D. I was surprised myself, but I found that when I didn’t have the distractions of first viewing (everything’s so new, and amazing, and you don’t know what’s coming next) the visuals not only hold up, but the story and characters are much more affecting. For me anyway. I got emotional several times the 2nd time, at scenes that didn’t phase me the first time. The movie will do very well on home DVD/blue ray, even though it really should be seen on a big screen. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/310 "2009-12-28T21:18:17Z")
EW gushes about _Avatar_’s second weekend: [http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/Movies/12/28/avatar.christmas.weekend.box/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/Movies/12/28/avatar.christmas.weekend.box/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/311 "2009-12-28T21:48:44Z")
I humbly admit I was wrong. Avatar is a massive hit and will only get massiver. Now I have to solve that pesky “I haven’t seen it yet” problem… ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/312 "2009-12-28T21:52:55Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > I humbly admit I was wrong. Avatar is a massive hit and will only get massiver. Now I have to solve that pesky “I haven’t seen it yet” problem… 😛 I hope you get to add to its proving you wrong soon. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Some\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ad7895/32.png) [@Just\_Some\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Some_Guy)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/313 "2009-12-28T22:31:12Z")
Yep the second weekend numbers tell all. Looks like it has enough legs for a while yet. I still think the theatrical release won’t make back its budget (the revenue does have to get split with theater owners after all) but it looks like when everything is tallied up some people are making a lot of money. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/314 "2009-12-28T22:43:20Z")
> [@Just\_Some\_Guy](#): > > Yep the second weekend numbers tell all. Looks like it has enough legs for a while yet. I still think the theatrical release won’t make back its budget (the revenue does have to get split with theater owners after all) but it looks like when everything is tallied up some people are making a lot of money. Movies NEVER, make their money back in the theatrical release. I repeat NEVER. That’s simply not how the business model works. They usually make their money back on DVD sales, sometimes they make it back on the international release in rare cases. The way it works is like this. The film makes most of its money on the opening weekend. It’s like a 90-10 split with the theaters or something. Then each successive weekend the fee scale slides toward the benefit of the theaters. The theater benefits from a longer run more than the studio does. The studio benefits from the opening weekend more than the theater does. Studios also have the advertising budget to contend with. At least step of the release they spend more and more money to keep the momentum going in order to make more money. So, even if Avatar has another record breaking weekend over the next weekend, it will still be a fraction of what the studio made off of opening weekend. If production + advertising was 0.5b then even if it makes 1b worldwide, it will still not have made a profit. However, when the DVD is released, all of the money that doesn’t go into manufacturing of the DVDs and distro of the DVDs will essentially be profit as they will be working largely with fixed costs from that point forward, fixed costs that will have been basically already paid for by the theatrical release. Then they’ll make money off of syndication, On-Demand and a whole host of other methods. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/315 "2009-12-28T22:55:50Z")
> [@Just\_Some\_Guy](#): > > I still think the theatrical release won’t make back its budget Geez, can’t let go, can you? Part of the “budget” for the film was developing the new technology for the film. That technology will be used for many many films in the future, many of those which will do well at the box office (many won’t, but it all evens out). So besides the insane amount of money Avatar is making at the box office now, there’s the DVD/Blu-ray sales (which will be a hit too), the cable/TV sales, and the money spread out over other films using the same technology. Not to mention, though I already have, the sequels will be far cheaper since the technology is already there (and will only get better, faster and cheaper) and will also be hits, as people who love this film will want to go back and re-visit the splendor and wonder that is Pandora. This is a phenomenal cinematic achievement, and may be the biggest of the 21st Century. ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Some\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ad7895/32.png) [@Just\_Some\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Some_Guy)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/316 "2009-12-28T23:03:00Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Geez, can’t let go, can you? > [@Just\_Some\_Guy](#): > > it looks like when everything is tallied up some people are making a lot of money. “Let go”? I think someone has some pent up hostility… ---
**Author:** ![TheBoltEater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/779978/32.png) [@TheBoltEater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheBoltEater)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2009, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/317 "2009-12-28T23:54:25Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > …I just thought I’d mention again that December is a horrible time to expect an action blockbuster to become a mega-blockbuster… > I Am Legend (2007): $256 million > If Avatar matches I Am Legend (the biggest December action movie in the last five years), it’ll just barely miss being called a flop. And between Princess and the Frog, Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 and Sherlock Holmes (or seeing New Moon for the 20th time), there will be plenty for the all ages set to push Avatar to the side. 1 Avatar - 2nd Weekend $75,617,183. 10 Day total $212,711,184 2 Sherlock Holmes - 1st Weekend $62,390,000 3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel - 1st Weekend $48,875,415 7 The Princess and the Frog - 5th Weekend $9,004,610 Plenty of people _did_ come out this weekend. Thanks to Sherlock Holmes and The Squeakquel, this became the highest grossing weekend in film history, surpassing The Dark Knight/Mamma Mia weekend iin 2008. Yet somehow Avatar _still_ made $75 million in its 2nd weekend. $212 domestic through 10 days says it’s going to blow past I Am Legend with ease. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2009, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/318 "2009-12-29T04:06:38Z")
> [@Just\_Some\_Guy](#): > > I think someone has some pent up hostility… Not at all. It’s amusing as hell. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2009, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/319 "2009-12-29T05:42:42Z")
I saw it on Sunday. Gorgeous! I wonder whether this may trigger the beginnings of 3DTV adoption at home? I know I’d like to get a big-screen TV to see it on. Is there a standard for 3DTV yet? I’ll be seeing it again. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2009, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/320 "2009-12-29T05:57:54Z")
"Okay, he managed to impress thems what ignore the 3d-crap at home. Whoop-di-doo. “In real life I work at providing the best picture for my customers. In reality, I’m trying to connect the crap the others are providing. We ignore “official” descriptions because they only describe worlds from dozens of years before.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=17)