# Predicting Cameron's Avatar: Waterworld or Titanic? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 1, 2009, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638 "2009-12-01T23:29:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/361 "2010-01-04T03:35:59Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Not **Just Some Guy** here, but we are talking about Hollywood accounting here, so who knows. šŸ™‚ Yeah, but all of its competition is Hollywood accounting too. šŸ˜‰ If it makes another 50m over the next week itā€™ll be in the top 10 all time highest domestic grossers. Now, itā€™s less likely as school is back in session and all that, so its rake should drop precipitously, but itā€™s destined to the in the top ten if not this week then next. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/362 "2010-01-04T05:06:47Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > If it makes another 50m over the next week itā€™ll be in the top 10 all time highest domestic grossers. Now, itā€™s less likely as school is back in session and all that, so its rake should drop precipitously, but itā€™s destined to the in the top ten if not this week then next. Itā€™s already at fourth all-time worldwide. If it makes another $100 million, which seems a sure bet, it will be second, behind only _Titanic._ ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/363 "2010-01-04T08:19:52Z")
Then James Cameron will have the #1 and #2 highest grossing films of all time. Ha! Seems like Iā€™m not the only one whoā€™s having fun tweaking the naysayersā€¦ [Avatar Crashes, Burns in Third Weekend With Meager $1 Billion Global Gross](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-mendelson/avatar-crashes-burns-in-t_b_409843.html) ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2010, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/364 "2010-01-04T15:14:38Z")
Another thing going for it this week is that there is pretty much nothing in the way of new releases to slow it down. Another B-grade vampire flick, an Amy Adams chick flick, and a Michael Cera teen comedy. Not until January 15ths _Book of Eli_ will Avatar get some competition. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2010, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/365 "2010-01-07T11:27:46Z")
[Avatar Becomes Second Highest Grossing Film of All Time in Just 20 Days](http://www.slashfilm.com/2010/01/06/avatar-becomes-second-highest-grossing-film-of-all-time-in-just-20-days/#ixzz0bvLqyeWD) > [@](#): > > Tonight, James Cameronā€™s Avatar will become the #2 highest grossing movie of all time, and in just 20 days of release. The sci-fi 3d film will have overtaken The Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King, which has a worldwide total of $1,119,110,941. Of course, Cameron has a ways to go, about $725 million, if he wants to sink the Titanic, the number one highest grossing film of all time and his last narrative feature film. Thatā€™s Worldwide. Heā€™ll get there on the Domestic chart, but it might take a couple/three more weeks. Thereā€™s no way itā€™s going to overtake Titanic, but thatā€™s ok. As much as I hate to see **Return of the King** fall to 3rd, Iā€™m thrilled that itā€™s **Avatar** kicking it out. I like the whole of LOTR much more than Avatar, but thereā€™s just something really satisfying in seeing a movie that was scorned by so many prior to release, and hated by so many (mostly conservatives and film snobs) after release, do so well. [2nd grade]Suck it naysayers/right-wingers![/2nd grade] ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Barchetta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/da6949/32.png) [@Red\_Barchetta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Barchetta)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2010, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/366 "2010-01-07T18:57:21Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Thatā€™s Worldwide. Heā€™ll get there on the Domestic chart, but it might take a couple/three more weeks. Thereā€™s no way itā€™s going to overtake Titanic, but thatā€™s ok. As much as I hate to see **Return of the King** fall to 3rd, Iā€™m thrilled that itā€™s **Avatar** kicking it out. I like the whole of LOTR much more than Avatar, but thereā€™s just something really satisfying in seeing a movie that was scorned by so many prior to release, and hated by so many (mostly conservatives and film snobs) after release, do so well. [2nd grade]Suck it naysayers/right-wingers![/2nd grade] Yup, Avatar is very much mirroring Titanic in its success-to-predicted failure ratio. This is a remarkable achievementā€“something I donā€™t think anyone could have ever predictedā€¦the second highest earnings ever after 3 weeks?! Thatā€™s nuts! ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2010, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/367 "2010-01-07T20:12:08Z")
For a frame of reference, itā€™s #87 in [all-time domestic box office (adjusted)](http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm). _Titanic_ is #6 and _T2_ is #96. At itā€™s current clip, it should break into the top 50 fairly soon. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/368 "2010-01-09T20:00:46Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > This is a phenomenal cinematic achievement, and may be the biggest of the 21st Century. We still have ninety years to go. šŸ™‚ I read an interesting fact today; depending on who you believe in terms of what movies actually cost, James Cameron has now made the most expensive movie ever made three times - setting the record with ā€œTerminator 2,ā€ then setting a new record with ā€œTitanic,ā€ and now setting a new record with ā€œAvatar.ā€ (In each case he was breaking someone elseā€™s record.) ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/369 "2010-01-09T20:11:14Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We still have ninety years to go. šŸ™‚ > > I read an interesting fact today; depending on who you believe in terms of what movies actually cost, James Cameron has now made the most expensive movie ever made three times - setting the record with ā€œTerminator 2,ā€ then setting a new record with ā€œTitanic,ā€ and now setting a new record with ā€œAvatar.ā€ (In each case he was breaking someone elseā€™s record.) I had started a thread about this some time [back](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=527864) and basically it appears Cameron was the first director to make movies with 100 million and 200 million budgets and the second to make a movie with a 300 million budget. Itā€™s possible that POTC3 cost the same as Avatar though as you say these things are pretty muddy. Incidentally a fourth movie of his, True Lies, was possibly the most expensive movie every made at the time. Of course none of these numbers adjust for inflation. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2010, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/370 "2010-01-09T20:32:57Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I had started a thread about this some time [back](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=527864) and basically it appears Cameron was the first director to make movies with 100 million and 200 million budgets and the second to make a movie with a 300 million budget. Itā€™s possible that POTC3 cost the same as Avatar though as you say these things are pretty muddy. Incidentally a fourth movie of his, True Lies, was possibly the most expensive movie every made at the time. Of course none of these numbers adjust for inflation. If one adjusts for inflation itā€™s entirely possible ā€œCleopatraā€ remains the priciest movie ever made. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/371 "2010-01-10T06:20:47Z")
This Wiki [article](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films)has two lists for most expensive film after adjusting for inflation. Cleopatra falls just behind POTC 3 in the more recent list though I am not sure about their inflation numbers. Cleopatraā€™s cost in 2008 dollars is listed at 314.6. POTC3 cost 300 in 2007 and they list it as 316 in 2008 dollars which implies an inflation rate of more than 5% which is rather high. Perhaps they are using ticket-price inflation rather than CPI. Anyway Cleopatra is clearly right up there in terms of costs. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/372 "2010-01-10T06:49:57Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We still have ninety years to go. šŸ™‚ > > I read an interesting fact today; depending on who you believe in terms of what movies actually cost, James Cameron has now made the most expensive movie ever made three times - setting the record with ā€œTerminator 2,ā€ then setting a new record with ā€œTitanic,ā€ and now setting a new record with ā€œAvatar.ā€ (In each case he was breaking someone elseā€™s record.) I think that would be four times. He did it with Aliens too. IIRC ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/373 "2010-01-10T07:55:45Z")
I donā€™t think so. This [list](http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/allbudgets.php)says Aliens cost 17m which is nowhere near the highest in 1986 when it was made. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/374 "2010-01-10T10:20:15Z")
> [@Red\_Barchetta](#): > > This is a remarkable achievementā€“something I donā€™t think anyone could have ever predictedā€¦the second highest earnings ever after 3 weeks?! Thatā€™s nuts! Ticket prices are nearly double what they were in 1997, plus Avatar gets the benefit of people paying _even more_ for 3-D and/or Imax. It was bound to happen eventually. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Barchetta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/da6949/32.png) [@Red\_Barchetta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Barchetta)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/375 "2010-01-10T18:20:04Z")
> [@HubZilla](#): > > It was bound to happen eventually. Are you speaking in regards to Avatar or movies in general? In the case of the former, there were a metric asston of doubters, hence why itā€™s impressive. In the case of the latterā€“no shit. The fact that it happened so quickly, by a movie that wasnā€™t a sequel, from the guy who made Titanic (lightning never strikes the same place twice), is what contibutes to it being remarkable. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/376 "2010-01-10T18:30:13Z")
Yet another solid weekend for Avatar [according](http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/friday-avatar-makes-it-four-1s-in-a-row/)to Deadline. > [@](#): > > Twentieth Century Foxā€™s 3D Avatar is still #1 in North America and overseas. The studio says it took in $13.3M domestic Friday, down -48% from New Years Day, and $21.2M Saturday for a hefty $48.5M weekend thatā€™s only -29% down from last Fri-Sat-Sun. Thatā€™s four #1s in a row for James Cameronā€™s big budget technopic which hasnā€™t happened at the box office since The Dark Knight in July 2008. Its domestic cume is now $429M, passing 2009ā€™s highest grossing pic Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen and its $402.1M. [Hollywood.com](http://Hollywood.com) says later this week Avatar will be first IMAX Hollywood feature to cross $100M in global receipts. Avatar made another $143M at the internal box office this weekend, raising its foreign cume now to $906M. Avatar should beat The Dark Knight comfortably but it will be interesting to see if it can come close to or even beat Titanic. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/377 "2010-01-10T20:07:22Z")
> [@Red\_Barchetta](#): > > In the case of the latterā€“no shit. The fact that it happened so quickly, ā€œSo quicklyā€? Iā€™d hardly call 12 years ā€œquickā€. Itā€™s actually longer than any box-office champ turnaround in the last 4 decades (assuming _Avatar_ does pass _Titanic_, certainly not a safe bet yet). ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Barchetta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/da6949/32.png) [@Red\_Barchetta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Barchetta)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/378 "2010-01-10T20:10:23Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#): > > ā€œSo quicklyā€? Iā€™d hardly call 12 years ā€œquickā€. Itā€™s actually longer than any box-office champ turnaround in the last 4 decades (assuming _Avatar_ does pass _Titanic_, certainly not a safe bet yet). 12 years? I was talking about the time since the film was released, being 3 weeks. I donā€™t know what youā€™re talking aboutā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2010, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/379 "2010-01-10T23:33:42Z")
$48 million (Domestic) for a 4th weekend is incredible! Itā€™s now broken records for the best 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekends of all time. This weekend and from now on, it would be in competition with Titanic for best weekends. Titanic currently [holds the records](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=4&p=.htm) for best 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th weekends. Another reason itā€™s remarkable is that Avatar is losing screens. I went to see 4 movies yesterday at our regular haunt, a 21-screen multiplex, and theyā€™re only showing the movie in 3D now, on 2 screens. No more 2D showings, Thursday was the last night for 2D. That floored me! > [@Lantern](#): > > Avatar should beat The Dark Knight comfortably but it will be interesting to see if it can come close to or even beat Titanic. It wonā€™t come close to Titanic, let alone beat it, on either the Domestic or Worldwide chart, but as noted it is already 2nd on the [Worldwide](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/) chart and it will eventually become 2nd after Titanic on the [Domestic chart](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm). Domestic, itā€™s #7 now, and by the end of next weekend it will be #3 behind The Dark Knight. Then it will just be a matter of time, maybe a couple of weeks after that, before it overtakes The Dark Knight. Iā€™m going to laugh at the first person who sneers because Avatar fails to overtake Titanic. Thatā€™s going to signal some major desperation there. You know itā€™s going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/380 "2010-01-11T07:05:48Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > It wonā€™t come close to Titanic, let alone beat it, on either the Domestic or Worldwide chart, but as noted it is already 2nd on the [Worldwide](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/) chart and it will eventually become 2nd after Titanic on the [Domestic chart](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm). . I am not so sure about that. The posters at BOM seem to think it will beat Titanic worldwide and at least come close in the US. We will have to wait and see. Quick calculations suggest itā€™s possible. For example Titanicā€™s 4th weekend was about 85% higher than Dark Knight in the US. Dark Knight ended up with 92 million more after that weekend. 92+85% is about 170 million which would leave Avatar almost exactly the same as Titanic at around 600 million. If Avatar gets some Oscar buzz I could see it happening. I think itā€™s likely Avatar will get a BP nomination. In fact the number of BP nominations was increased to 10 precisely to give box office hits a better chance of being nominated. If it reaches the 550 mark, the ā€œWill it beat Titanic?ā€ buzz itself will push it further. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=20)