# Predicting Cameron's Avatar: Waterworld or Titanic? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 1, 2009, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638 "2009-12-01T23:29:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/381 "2010-01-11T07:14:15Z")
Correction: That was “Avatar’s 4th weekend was about 85% higher …” ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/382 "2010-01-11T09:21:44Z")
You’re right, it will be interesting to watch. I’m not counting on it toppling but I don’t mind if I’m wrong, other than the fact that I like Titanic being #1. I like everything about Titanic, including the fact that it was a phenomenon at the box office. I don’t particularly want to see it beat, but I’ll live if it happens. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/383 "2010-01-11T12:55:26Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > I’m going to laugh at the first person who sneers because Avatar fails to overtake Titanic. That’s going to signal some major desperation there. You know it’s going to happen. Why are you still harping on this? Avatar has proven it’s not a failure and no has said it’s going to be a failure in a long time. Because they would be seen as a raving loon when the proof is right there in their face. ---
**Author:** ![Lightray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightray/32/391_2.png) [@Lightray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightray)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2010, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/384 "2010-01-11T14:05:42Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Another reason it’s remarkable is that Avatar is losing screens. I went to see 4 movies yesterday at our regular haunt, a 21-screen multiplex, and they’re only showing the movie in 3D now, on 2 screens. No more 2D showings, Thursday was the last night for 2D. That floored me! From what I recall, theaters have contractual obligations for the number of screens they have to show some movies on. After a certain number of weeks in release, those obligations get looser. I _think_ that the theaters make more $ on the 3D screens (hence the reason they’re all putting them in). Particularly since theater margins usually go up at the time those obligations get loosened. So from a theater perspective, it makes sense to drop the lower-margin screens if they can, and funnel all the customers to the higher-margin 3D screens. They can use the freed-up 2D screens for whatever new releases they’re obligated to give a certain number of screens to. And even if the new releases are selling less than Avatar (likely), they’ll probably still come out ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/385 "2010-01-12T08:38:11Z")
Avatar’s weekend [actuals](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2636&p=.htm)were a bit better than the estimates: it made a remarkable 50.3 million in the US smashing Titanic’s fourth weekend record of 28.7 million. ``` It has continued to perform extremely well around the world and it hasn't opened yet in Italy which should be good for at least 60-70 million. It should also get some boost from China where it opened just last week. So chances of beating Titanic worldwide are looking good. BOM also says that 3D revenue in the US has been 335 million or 78% of the total. I doubt the second movie on the 3D list is even close. ``` ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2010, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/386 "2010-01-12T10:34:01Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Why are you still harping on this? Avatar has proven it’s not a failure and no has said it’s going to be a failure in a long time. Because they would be seen as a raving loon when the proof is right there in their face. You’re right, that was uncalled for, and I apologize. I shouldn’t have said it, or at least I should have clarified that I wasn’t necessarily talking about Dopers. I’ve been reading Avatar threads in several places, and this is the place with the least amount of vitriol, for which I am grateful. Thank you for the theater information **Lightray**. I was surprised at the dropping of the 2D showings, but 4 new movies opened at that theater and I can see that they needed the room. Interesting that the actuals were higher than the estimates. It’s usually the other way around. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avatar go to #1 Worldwide. I hadn’t realized it has yet to open/has just opened, in some countries. I’m also glad to find out that 3D total information. It’s the first I’ve read regarding how much the 3D version has made. Thanks **Lantern**! ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2010, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/387 "2010-01-15T21:07:48Z")
So is this the weekend Avatar gets bumped from the #1 spot? _Book of Eli_ opens today and while receiveing mixed reviews I think has a chance at being #1 for the weekend boxoffice. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/388 "2010-01-16T17:47:15Z")
Early [numbers](http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/book-of-eli-de-thrones-avatar-friday-but-camerons-3d-will-reign-for-weekend-teen-girls-turn-out-for-3-lovely-bones/)suggest that BOE has beaten Avatar on Friday but the latter is expected to win the long weekend in the US with around 45-50 million over the four days. Avatar should hit 500 million in the US on Monday or Tuesday beating The Dark Knight by a long distance as the fastest to hit that mark. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2010, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/389 "2010-01-16T22:41:59Z")
> [@](#): > > I think it’s likely Avatar will get a BP nomination. In fact the number of BP nominations was increased to 10 precisely to give box office hits a better chance of being nominated. If it reaches the 550 mark, the “Will it beat Titanic?” buzz itself will push it further. I don’t know about Best Picture, but it’s definitely a contender for Cinematography, and I think everyone already knows that it’s going to blow the competition away for Best Visual Effects. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/390 "2010-01-17T07:03:37Z")
Apparently the number of BP nominees was raised to ten precisely so as to increase the chances of popular films to get a nomination thereby increasing audience interest in the awards. The failure of the Dark Knight to get a nomination was mentioned as a reason for the change. So it would be strange if in the very first year after the change, a huge box-office success like Avatar which also received decent reviews doesn’t receive the BP nomination. I guess we will have to wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/391 "2010-01-17T09:00:13Z")
There are actually people who doubt that Avatar will get _nominated_ for Best Picture? You can count on it, bank on it, bet big bucks on it. It’s very likely to win too. I think it’s a horse race between **The Hurt Locker** and **Avatar**. The only possible spoiler would be **Up In The Air** but I don’t think that will happen. I’ll be rooting for **The Hurt Locker** just as I rooted for **L.A. Confidential** back when. But if **Avatar** wins, I’ll be cheering mightily, just as I cheered mightily for **Titanic** when it won. There’s a total disconnect with people who just do not and could not possibly ever understand just how LOVED **Avatar** and **Titanic** are. **Titanic** deserved its place in box office history and it deserved its Oscar wins. To this day, it still holds up and is a great movie. **Avatar** deserves its place in box office history and it deserves any Oscar wins it receives, including Best Picture. And I can hear the scratching of heads. I was going to see **Avatar** again tonight, but it was sold out for several showings (but then, everything was sold out, including **The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassu** s!!). I’m going to hate to see **Avatar** overthrow **Titanic** because I think **Titanic** is the better movie, but I think now it will do it. Definitely Worldwide, and probably Domestic. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/392 "2010-01-17T14:10:35Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > There’s a total disconnect with people who just do not and could not possibly ever understand just how LOVED **Avatar** and **Titanic** are. **Titanic** deserved its place in box office history and it deserved its Oscar wins. To this day, it still holds up and is a great movie. **Avatar** deserves its place in box office history and it deserves any Oscar wins it receives, including Best Picture. Popular movies with simplistic or lighthearted stories are, for whatever reason, hated on Internet message boards, including this one. I find the hate for films like _Titanic_ - another commonly despised one on this board is _Forrest Gum_p - absolutely baffling, especially when the same crowd gets boners over, say, _The Princess Bride_, which is a fun movie and all but wasn’t great and is every bit as simplistic and straightforward as any movie. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/393 "2010-01-17T14:26:13Z")
The weirdest thing is that some of \*\*Avatar’s \*\*biggest critics are also big fans of **District 9.** I can’t think of any criticism of the former film that can’t be applied to the latter (which, for the record, I enjoyed) as well. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/394 "2010-01-17T16:13:43Z")
> [@](#): > > There are actually people who doubt that Avatar will get nominated for Best Picture? You can count on it, bank on it, bet big bucks on it. My uncertainty is based mostly on a lack of knowledge of the competition. It won’t actually surprise me at all if it is nominated. Now, it would surprise me somewhat if it won, not because I think it’s a bad movie, but because it doesn’t seem like the sort of movie that the Oscar judges usually like. Then again, the Oscar judges are people, too, and it certainly seems to be liked well enough by people in general, judging by the ticket sales. So maybe it will win. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/395 "2010-01-17T17:05:10Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > The weirdest thing is that some of \*\*Avatar’s \*\*biggest critics are also big fans of **District 9.** I can’t think of any criticism of the former film that can’t be applied to the latter (which, for the record, I enjoyed) as well. The two movies are only similar in that they are movies with aliens. In District 9 it was a story about Apartheid. Different stage of colonialism in the allegory. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/396 "2010-01-17T17:24:59Z")
Be that as it may, D9 was no more original and no less derivative, and its plot made much less sense. Still a good flick; it did for ugliness what \*\*Avatar \*\*did for beauty. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Barchetta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/da6949/32.png) [@Red\_Barchetta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Barchetta)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/397 "2010-01-17T19:12:17Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Be that as it may, D9 was no more original and no less derivative, and its plot made much less sense. > > Still a good flick; it did for ugliness what \*\*Avatar \*\*did for beauty. Wow, that’s actually a very good description! ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2010, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/398 "2010-01-17T21:29:57Z")
> [@Hampshire](#): > > So is this the weekend Avatar gets bumped from the #1 spot? Nope, didn’t happen. Avatar [won the weekend](http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=main&yr=2010&wknd=03&p=.htm) with $41 million (Book of Eli made $31 million). On the Domestic chart, it’s now $42 million away from The Dark Knight. With what Avatar will make this week combined with next weekend’s numbers, it will be #2 by next Sunday. > [@RickJay](#): > > Popular movies with simplistic or lighthearted stories are, for whatever reason, hated on Internet message boards, including this one. I find the hate for films like _Titanic_ - another commonly despised one on this board is _Forrest Gum_p - absolutely baffling, especially when the same crowd gets boners over, say, _The Princess Bride_, which is a fun movie and all but wasn’t great and is every bit as simplistic and straightforward as any movie. Agree with seeing the hate and finding it baffling, but I love The Princess Bride, do think it is great, and understand its popularity. You have to admit it is more fun and quotable than Avatar. But yeah, it’s straightforward and simplistic too. > [@Chronos](#): > > My uncertainty is based mostly on a lack of knowledge of the competition. It won’t actually surprise me at all if it is nominated. Trust me, I’m a hopeless awards junkie and keep track of everything leading up to the Oscar nominations. I do know the competition (see ArchiveGuy’s Oscar poll) and speak with informed knowledge. If **Avatar** weren’t nominated it would be the shock heard round the world of movies. Shocks can always happen, often do, but this not getting nominated, at least nominated, would be as unthinkable as **Titanic** not getting nominated. > [@Chronos](#): > > Then again, the Oscar judges are people, too, and it certainly seems to be liked well enough by people in general, judging by the ticket sales. So maybe it will win. That’s a good thing to remember, that Oscar voters are people too. It’s often forgotten that there’s no monolithic entity conspiring via special e-mail channels or whatever to vote for something. Each individual decides and votes in the privacy of their own home/office. Bjork in London, Peter Jackson in Wellington, Meryl Streep in New York, Goldie Hawn in Los Angeles, people around the world, from many different occupations within the film industry, making an individual choice of which box to tick. I won’t say they’re just like the average moviegoer regarding Avatar. For one thing they would have seen it for free either via screenings or screeners. They would watch it with an eye to how it was made because they know what’s right off-screen (hairy Grips, a table full of stale sandwiches, hovering makeup people, etc.) and they know the mechanics of how it all gets put together pre and post-production. Many of them have probably worked in some capacity with people who worked on the movie. In those and other ways they’re not average moviegoers, but they are just people who like what they like and vote for what they want to vote for. I think they’d be MORE likely to vote for Avatar, because besides just loving the movie (those who do, and there are many), they know what it took to get it to the screen. > [@Alessan](#): > > Be that as it may, D9 was no more original and no less derivative, and its plot made much less sense. > > Still a good flick; it did for ugliness what \*\*Avatar \*\*did for beauty. That is good! ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2010, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/399 "2010-01-18T06:19:00Z")
Avatar [wins](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/18/movies/awardsseason/18globes.html?hp)Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture and Director. At this stage it is looking like a front-runner to win BP at the Oscars. The last big box-office hit to win was ROTK and then Titanic six years before that. So it’s probably about time for another hit to win. BTW doesn’t Cameron look rather old for a 56 year old in that picture? ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2010, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638/400 "2010-01-18T19:20:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I don’t know about Best Picture, but it’s definitely a contender for Cinematography, and I think everyone already knows that it’s going to blow the competition away for Best Visual Effects. I wonder if it will get nominated for Best Original Screenplay… or Best _Adapted_ Screenplay (Dances with Wolves, Pocahontas, Ferngully, etc) 😛 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predicting-camerons-avatar-waterworld-or-titanic/519638.md?page=21)