# Prediction for specific demographic changes compared to 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 31, 2024, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511 "2024-10-31T18:32:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/1 "2024-10-31T18:32:26Z")
Up down for total turnout to which side using 2020 as the baseline. Sources: for [younger voters subgroups](https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/2020-youth-voter-turnout-raceethnicity-and-gender); and [other groupings](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/). Younger apparently gets defined as 18 to 29. My short version: _Younger voters_ have an increase in female voter turnout and D preference across all subgroups. Biggest increase in young Black women, increasing from 47 to 55 or even 60%. The younger male vote remains an unchanged total turnout for Latino and Black men (39 and 31%) with a marginal but real improvement to Trump’s share. Maybe decreased in certain swing states like FL and PA. _Overall gender_ - the overall excellent woman voter turnout will not change much but the share to Harris will increase from 55 to 60. Male turnout will stay about the same and Trump will gain a couple of percent there. Less than 5. _By education_- even bigger Harris margin same great turnout for college degree and above driven by college educated women _all_ ages ethnicities and location. Non college educated white men down from Biden’s 33% but still at or above Clinton’s 28%. Suburban is a Harris romp. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/2 "2024-11-01T12:41:36Z")
Coincidentally, today I will use this nifty interactive tool to teach on this (for my undergrad-level Political Geography class). It uses recent census data. Click “Explore on Your Own” (I think that’s the phrasing), and you can see the Electoral College count effects of, say, increasing turnout by young white males 2%, or making older Hispanic women lean 3% more toward Trump than in 2020, etc., etc. > **[What Would It Take To Flip States In The 2024 Election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/)** > > What would it take to turn blue states red (and vice versa) in the 2024 presidential election? Probably works best on a device larger than a phone. (Dopers will appreciate the tool’s name: “Swing-o-Matic”) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/3 "2024-11-01T12:55:52Z")
Not going to share your specific predictions though? I’ve played with that in previous cycles. Then it didn’t divide along the subgroups I cared most about. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/4 "2024-11-01T13:15:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not going to share your specific predictions though? Maybe after classes today. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/5 "2024-11-01T23:38:37Z")
Okay — I actually agree with everything you proposed, except for the “suburban is a Harris romp.” Perhaps you could be more specific (at least, how much does this shift from 2020)? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2024, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/6 "2024-11-02T02:00:26Z")
Just a bit more than Biden. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2024, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/7 "2024-11-02T02:26:32Z")
Prediction: The exit polling correlation between being white, and who you vote for, will be less than in recent cycles. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-specific-demographic-changes-compared-to-2020/1009511/8 "2024-11-02T02:32:25Z")
Okay. I’m sorry to be boring, but we’re in perfect agreement!