# Prediction for voter turnout? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962 "2004-10-30T02:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/1 "2004-10-30T02:22:16Z")
Apologies if this topic has recently been covered - [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=280703) currently in Great Debates is asking for election predictions, but skimming it I see that it’s mostly people predicting the winner and/or how the electoral votes will go. I’m wondering what the SDMB thinks will happen with the voter turnout. I think it’s a given at this point that voter turnout will be higher than usual, and this election is especially polarized. But how many additional voters do you think will actually turn out? [This site](http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html) lists voter turnout in US elections. For presidential year elections, it seems to hover around 50% over the last few elections: ```auto Year Turnout of voting-age population (percent) **2000 51.3%** 1998 36.4 **1996 49.1** 1994 38.8 **1992 55.1** 1990 36.5 **1988 50.1** 1986 36.4 **1984 53.1** 1982 39.8 **1980 52.6** ``` Color my cynical, but although I think turnout might approach 60%, _very_ surprised if turnout overall tops 65%. I think that realistically, any voters who are still “undecided” are going to turn out to be non-voters. In this hotly-contested, often-debated, highly-polarized, election that seems to have very few still-undecided voters, what do you think the voter turnout will be? I pondered putting this thread in IMHO, since it’s basically a poll, but then I figured the subject matter lends itself better to GD. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/2 "2004-10-30T02:34:53Z")
60% might not seem much more impressive than 50%… but that would be quite a number of voters and a record turnout. I say 60% at the least. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/3 "2004-10-30T02:51:12Z")
I’m guessing it will be high. I think the intense emotions this election campaign has generated, along with the example from 2000 of how even a few votes can determine an election, will bring out the voters. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/4 "2004-10-30T02:52:27Z")
An actual number guess: put me down in the pool for 53.6%. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/5 "2004-10-30T02:53:44Z")
My guess is around the 55% range, which your chart shows was the figure in 1992. Despite all the talk of a huge turnout this time, that’s often the talk. I would be quite surprised if it were 60 or more. ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/6 "2004-10-30T02:55:52Z")
Actually, I realized a few minutes after I hit Submit that I neglected to put my own prediction. I’ll guess 56.5% - just a little higher than 2002. I sorry about the typos in the OP - I swear I proofread it several times. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/7 "2004-10-30T17:27:53Z")
There will be a lot of peer pressure to go out and vote… and even people who don’t care might get dragged along. So do expect more “blank” votes or votes for third party candidates as a means of “throwing away” votes. Now why predict 56.5% ? What do you have against full numbers !! Say 57% ! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/8 "2004-10-30T17:30:37Z")
Gimme 59% and pick 'em. I’ve been watching for a long time and I ain’t NEVER seen anything like what I’m seeing here in Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/9 "2004-10-30T17:35:17Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Gimme 59% and pick 'em. I’ve been watching for a long time and I ain’t NEVER seen anything like what I’m seeing here in Ohio. What about battleground states ? Are they more sick and tired of being harrased ? Or do they understand that every vote counts and will show up in high numbers ? ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/10 "2004-10-30T17:51:23Z")
I’ll take a stab at a prediction: 56.3% voter turnout nationwide. And i’ll make a second prediction that among non-swing states, these states will have the biggest increase in voter turnout: GA MA NY TX UT ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/11 "2004-10-30T18:49:00Z")
Seems like the norm is about 53%. I hear people predicting 60% this time. I’ll bet those predictions are off by half (on the high end). I’ll go with 56.5%. How’s that for a scientific analysis? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/12 "2004-10-30T19:48:42Z")
How about some pseudoscience? I decided, of course, to run a regression on the turnout for Presidential elections since 1924, available [here.](http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/preturn.htm) Predicted result: 53.84%. One std below is 49.3, one above 58.38. I’ll go with one std above, 58.38%. Of course, that would make it higher than in any year since 1968. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/13 "2004-10-30T20:56:08Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > What about battleground states ? Are they more sick and tired of being harrased ? Or do they understand that every vote counts and will show up in high numbers ? Um, Ohio would be one of the ultimate battleground states, actually. Interest in the election is higher than flood water. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/14 "2004-10-30T21:02:18Z")
60.5% Just to be closer without going over. ---
**Author:** ![Stoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stoid/32/272_2.png) [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/15 "2004-10-30T21:09:28Z")
59.877% ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/16 "2004-10-30T21:25:47Z")
> [@pantom](#): > > How about some pseudoscience? > I decided, of course, to run a regression on the turnout for Presidential elections since 1924, available [here.](http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/preturn.htm) > Predicted result: 53.84%. One std below is 49.3, one above 58.38. > I’ll go with one std above, 58.38%. Of course, that would make it higher than in any year since 1968. I like it!! ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/17 "2004-10-30T21:44:19Z")
I just predict Minnesota will lead the nation in turnout. ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/18 "2004-10-30T21:52:07Z")
I predict a huge Bush turnout in the Midwest etc, and a lower turnout for Kerry in the pre-labeled “Democrat” states (Cal, etc)… so it will be a bit skewed. Speaking of, I’d better get my voter preview thingie done before Tuesday. Oh, you might like this: [http://www.zagadka.net/lol.jpg](http://www.zagadka.net/lol.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/19 "2004-10-30T21:56:37Z")
> [@Captain Lance Murdoch](#): > > I just predict Minnesota will lead the nation in turnout. Any particular reason, other than it being a battleground state? I would think another b/g state, like Florida, would take that honor owing to the large % of seniors living there. That demographic is noted for high voter turnout all the time. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/20 "2004-10-30T21:57:19Z")
> [@Waenara](#): > > In this hotly-contested, often-debated, highly-polarized, election that seems to have very few still-undecided voters, what do you think the voter turnout will be? Doing a Google search on “predicted voter turnout” returns a lot of similar results, mostly on a state-by-state basis, such as: > [@](#): > > [Highest voter turnout since World War II predicted](http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/195984_election20.html) > Secretary of state expects 84% of those registered, near a record [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962.md?page=2)