# Prediction for voter turnout? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962 "2004-10-30T02:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/21 "2004-10-30T22:14:11Z")
My guess is between 53 and 54%. If all the people who whined about politics actually voted I’d guess that there’d be 70% turn out… ---
**Author:** ![zoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/71c47a/32.png) [@zoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/22 "2004-10-30T22:15:36Z")
1. % I think we will see a lot more young voters this year. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/23 "2004-10-30T22:40:45Z")
I’ll bet a long shot–70%. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/24 "2004-10-30T23:05:33Z")
**Polerius** beat me to what I was going to post: the sec’y of state here in WA has been saying he believes turnout will be very, very high. He was a guest on the local NPR station during their hour-long morning show, and he was claiming at that time turnout would be north of 75% of registered voters. That seems really, really high to me, but he’s been doing this a while, and should (better) know what he’s talking about. Nationally? I dunno. I’ll stake an outlying position, though, and say 65%, just to be dangerous. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/25 "2004-10-30T23:53:34Z")
Has anyone taken 61%? Oh, shoot, **SimonX** took 60.5%. Put me down for 61.5%. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/26 "2004-10-31T00:09:16Z")
I think it will be a really high turnout most places, but since California isn’t close at all, and so much of the country lives there, I’m going to go 58.1%, Bob. Big money! No whammies! ---
**Author:** ![Zagadka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zagadka/32/7272_2.png) [@Zagadka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zagadka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/27 "2004-10-31T00:11:00Z")
57% Dunno and dun care if it’s already taken. I’m just in it for the glory. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/28 "2004-10-31T00:22:00Z")
66.6% Reminds me of one of the candidates somehow. ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/29 "2004-10-31T05:05:51Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > What about battleground states ? Are they more sick and tired of being harrased ? Or do they understand that every vote counts and will show up in high numbers ? I’d say both. I work in a resturant out by Pittsburgh International which is where the candidates fly in for stops in Western PA, Eastern Ohio, and Northern West Virginia. We are sick and tired of the cops shutting down the freeway for the candidates. It takes money out of our pockets. We are especially sick of the TV commericals. They come one after another now that the campaigns for state races are buying ads as well. Tonight we all agreed that Tommy Chong would make a better president then either Bush or Kerry. But we are talking about the election which is rare and a lot of us are voting. ## Put me down for 61% ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/30 "2004-11-01T15:21:20Z")
I just read [this poll from Gallup](http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13873). > [@](#): > > PRINCETON, NJ – Two days before the election, the final CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows a dead heat in the presidential race, with President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry each receiving 49% support among likely voters in the final allocated estimate. Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners 1% of the vote, and all other candidates an additional 1%. > > \ > > Among all registered voters, 13% say they will be voting in a presidential election for the first time. Among Gallup’s “likely voters,” just 7% say they will be first-time voters. > > \ > > Survey indicators of voter interest and attention paid to the campaign suggest this year’s election could produce a significantly higher turnout than was the case in either 1996 or 2000, when voter participation was 49% and 51%, respectively. **Gallup’s final likely voter model assumes a 60% turnout.** _(emphasis added)_ ---
**Author:** ![braintree](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@braintree](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/braintree)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/31 "2004-11-01T15:43:58Z")
Voter turnout, 62.5% nationally. Surprise Kerry landslide. If I’m wrong, no one will remember. If I’m right, I shall be immor…Aurrgh… :mad: ---
**Author:** ![CuriousCanuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@CuriousCanuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CuriousCanuck)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/32 "2004-11-01T17:32:47Z")
I’ll go with 50.05% ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/33 "2004-11-01T17:50:19Z")
Since the three most populous states, CA, TX, and NY are not really close I will go with 54.5%. ---
**Author:** ![Jon\_the\_Geek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/bbce88/32.png) [@Jon\_the\_Geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jon_the_Geek)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/34 "2004-11-01T19:26:27Z")
Just to get my WAG out there, 72%, mostly because I want to have a high guess on record in case it blows away all estimates 🙂 Do I hear 73? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/35 "2004-11-01T20:04:54Z")
55.5% here. 🙂 I’d be shocked if it went over 60%, though I have to admit the lines here in NM last week for early voting were huge. Glad I voted early…and often! 😉 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Low\_Key\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ed655f/32.png) [@Low\_Key\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Low_Key_1)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/36 "2004-11-02T11:51:14Z")
I’ll go with 63.7%. Kerry landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Low\_Key\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ed655f/32.png) [@Low\_Key\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Low_Key_1)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/37 "2004-11-02T11:55:01Z")
Now that I’ve actually read through the thread I seem to have a suspiciously similar guess to **Braintree**. Hope we’re right… otherwise as s/he said, our guesses will just be convieniently forgotten… ---
**Author:** ![Jon\_the\_Geek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/bbce88/32.png) [@Jon\_the\_Geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jon_the_Geek)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/38 "2004-11-02T14:42:44Z")
I just got into the office after voting in Precinct 328 of Travis County, Texas. According to the clerks, 50% of the registered voters in our precinct had voted early, and “It looks like the other 50% are voting today.” I don’t know the registration figures for my precinct, but around 95% of eligible voters in Travis County are registered for this election. I have no idea how that will translate to the rest of the state, let alone the rest of the country… but I’m beginning to wonder if my 72% WAG (which I made intentionally high) was too low. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/39 "2004-11-03T14:11:49Z")
I figures this thread deserved a bump. Anyone know what it turned out to be? ---
**Author:** ![Waenara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/50afbb/32.png) [@Waenara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Waenara)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2004, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962/40 "2004-11-03T19:54:59Z")
[Clicky](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/03/voter.turnout.ap/index.html) > [@](#): > > **Voter turnout highest since 1968** > > WASHINGTON (AP) – Driven by an intense race for the presidency, a greater percentage of Americans voted Tuesday than at any time in more than three decades. > > Figures tabulated Wednesday by The Associated Press showed that 114.3 million people had voted with 99 percent of precincts reporting. > > However, about 120 million people cast ballots, including 5.5 million to 6 million absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, said Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. > > The 120 million figure represents just under 60 percent of eligible voters – the highest percentage turnout since 1968, Gans said. (Voters turn out to beat the rush) > > \ > > At least six states – Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia – and the District of Columbia set new voter-turnout highs, according to Gans’ analysis. I also heard (no cite) that turnout among young first-time voters was lower than predicted (it was about the same as in 2000). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-for-voter-turnout/271962.md?page=1)