# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/221 "2012-09-17T21:45:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democratic voters are unreliable at turning out, Then how do any get elected? > [@](#): > > Obama’s bounce is dissipating more quickly than Silver predicted based on models Can you point out where he said this? I’ve read the latest entry twice now, and I’m not seeing it. Or is it in another entry? ---
**Author:** ![rogerbox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/76d3ee/32.png) [@rogerbox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rogerbox)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/222 "2012-09-17T21:54:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Romney is quite credible if you’re looking for someone to actually govern. Romney claims he will be governing from the POTUS for jobs jobs jobs, but when he was actually GOVERNer of MA, he was absolutely terrible at job creation. So in other words, no he isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/223 "2012-09-17T21:55:04Z")
Democrats get elected when Democratic voters do turn out, or when Democrats win swing voters, which only happens when Republicans have managed to screw up governing, such as in 2006 and 2008. As for Silver, he didn’t say that, that’s my analysis of what’s going on with the polls. Obama is down to +3.0 in the RCP average. That’s the danger zone where MoE and/or better turnout can beat a candidate. Especially since some of that lead is based on registered voters, not likely voters, where Silver says Republicans gain two points. Obama +3 is almost a tie. Obama +2 probably is a tie. Obama +1, better start preparing for the inevitable. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/224 "2012-09-17T21:56:08Z")
> [@rogerbox](#): > > Romney claims he will be governing from the POTUS for jobs jobs jobs, but when he was actually GOVERNer of MA, he was absolutely terrible at job creation. > > So in other words, no he isn’t. Massachusetts went from 50th in job creation to 28th during his term. He inherited a bad situation and turned it around. Obama inherited a bad situation and pointed fingers. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/225 "2012-09-17T22:18:56Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > You might be amazed to learn that this Democrat looks at policies and moral character and finds Obama infinitely superior to Romney on both counts. Wait. Obama has either? Since when? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/226 "2012-09-17T22:30:34Z")
Uh, you may disagree with them, but I’m not sure how you can say the President doesn’t have policies. Even if he’s just making it up as he goes along (which I seriously doubt), there IS some kind of decision making going on - thus, policy. If he didn’t have any, where are all the arguments against them coming from? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/227 "2012-09-17T22:37:04Z")
How can Obama be a commie socialist job-killing baby-killing antichrist without policies? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/228 "2012-09-17T22:37:49Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > How can Obama be a commie socialist job-killing baby-killing antichrist without policies? You forgot turning the U.S. into Kenya or Sweden or whatever secular Muslim country he’s turning it into. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/229 "2012-09-17T22:38:42Z")
He doesn’t have any policies going forward. I haven’t heard him tout any proposals on the campaign trail for a second term. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/230 "2012-09-17T22:40:58Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > You forgot turning the U.S. into Kenya or Sweden or whatever secular Muslim country he’s turning it into. Well, that’s just plain good sense. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/231 "2012-09-17T22:41:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He doesn’t have any policies going forward. I haven’t heard him tout any proposals on the campaign trail for a second term. I’m sure you’ve listened very carefully to his every word. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/232 "2012-09-17T22:42:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Massachusetts went from 50th in job creation to 28th during his term. He inherited a bad situation and turned it around. Rankings are worthless. It’s possible that other states simply created even fewer jobs, while Mass. stayed the same. Your ranking doesn’t tell us what actually happened. (Or why). > [@](#): > > Obama inherited a bad situation and pointed fingers. So what was the jobs situation when he took office and what happened afterward? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/233 "2012-09-17T22:44:35Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > I’m sure you’ve listened very carefully to his every word. Believe it or not, I do listen to what he says. I keep hoping he’ll doom himself by touting the things he’s done, but so far all I hear is “You are the change” and “Mitt Romney is a very bad person!” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/234 "2012-09-17T22:48:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He doesn’t have any policies going forward. I haven’t heard him tout any proposals on the campaign trail for a second term. As opposed to Romey’s detailed tax and jobs plan? That’s how all candidates are. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/235 "2012-09-17T22:59:42Z")
I agree, but right now Romney does have a more detailed economic plan than Obama. It has tons of gaping holes, as has been covered here, but they only have holes because they exist. In reality, a candidate can’t get too specific not just because it’s politically disadvantageous, but because Congress gets a vote. Making specific promises on something complex like tax reform means breaking those promises when signing the final bill. What candidates can and should be specific about are things the executive directly controls. Like promising to go line by line on the budget to eliminate wasteful programs, something that to my knowledge has only been done once: when Clinton put Gore in charge of the Reinventing Government Initiative. Obama has not taken any public steps to keep that promise, despite the fact that it was 100% within his power to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/236 "2012-09-17T23:38:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I agree, but right now Romney does have a more detailed economic plan than Obama. I don’t think a series of mutually exclusive proposals with no explanation of how they work can be called a plan. That’s more like a wish list. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/237 "2012-09-17T23:57:22Z")
Trouble in Paradise? > **[Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/)** > > Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. Montreal Gazette offers information on latest national and international events & more. ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/238 "2012-09-18T01:14:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > As for Silver, he didn’t say that, that’s my analysis of what’s going on with the polls. > [@adaher](#): > > Obama’s bounce is dissipating more quickly than Silver predicted based on models, Sounds like you said Silver _ **did** _ say that. As far as I could tell, Silver never made any prediction about how long a convention bounce would last … he’s more concerned about where the polling ends up after the bounce dissipates. Which, at least for now, is still pretty decent for Obama. You know, the popular vote percentages are probably going to be pretty close. But that’s not going to have a proportionate affect on the Electoral College. Romney absolutely _ **has** _ to win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, then hope to _ **also** _ pick up Iowa or Colorado or Wisconsin to have any shot at getting to 270 electoral votes. All Obama has to do is win Florida. If he wins Ohio instead, that will probably do it, too. Romney’s path to get 270 electoral votes is very, very tough, let alone anything over 300. Without some game-changing event in the next six weeks, any Romney “landslide” is a complete and utter fantasy. ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/239 "2012-09-18T02:46:49Z")
> [@Andiethewestie](#): > > Trouble in Paradise? > > [http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Romney+aims+campaign+back+track+amid+reports+infighting+blame+game/7254713/story.html](http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Romney+aims+campaign+back+track+amid+reports+infighting+blame+game/7254713/story.html) The most interesting quote from that article was this: > [@](#): > > Stevens argued that the Romney campaign is in good shape, and that Obama’s post-convention bounce in the polls is withering daily. > > “The president had a terrible week last week,” said Stevens, referring to the violence in the Middle East. “If anybody turned on the TV and feels better about the president after last week, I’d be surprised to hear it.” Was I imagining the bipartisan criticism that Romney got for his comments on the Libya situation? Or Obama’s measured response? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2012, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/240 "2012-09-18T03:06:09Z")
Measured response? Obama was far angrier at Romney than at the ambassadors’ killers. You’d think he’d work up more anger for people who are actually evil. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=13)