# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/41 "2012-09-14T04:06:32Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > Romney will take over 300 in the EC. You guys have blindered yourselves. You can’t see the forest for the trees. What you perceive as gaffes are not considered as such by most conservatives. No, of course not. But, conservatives are a numerical minority in America, both among the general population and among registered voters. You do understand that, don’t you? See [here](http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/) and [here.](http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/report/2009/03/11/5775/state-of-american-political-ideology-2009/) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/42 "2012-09-14T04:07:15Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > 0bama and his Marxist thugs HAVE to go back to Chicago…Unlike the past few months, I am starting to feel pretty good about our chances of deposing of the Marxist. The entire nation has be harmed under this regime and Americans want a change. I like how you use a zero for the O when you type his name, that’s a nice touch. Anyway, on that 400 EV prediction of yours, I’ll bet you $10,000 you are wrong… ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/43 "2012-09-14T04:10:22Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > Leaving religion out of it, don’t discount the fact that he’s a Moron. No, no, Santorum is a moron; Romney is smart, but incurably out of touch. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/44 "2012-09-14T04:11:40Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Groucho, maybe. More likely Harpo, but Chico is _right_ out. 'At’sa too bad! ---
**Author:** ![moonshot925](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f0a364/32.png) [@moonshot925](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moonshot925)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/45 "2012-09-14T04:14:24Z")
Well, for me, its very simple and clear to me. All you have to do is look at the policies Barack 0bama supports. I would consider 0bama to be more of a Neo-Marxist, in that he may not do all the things a traditional marxist would do, however, he still supports the main foundations under which marxism is built which is greater government control, more regulations and the destruction of property of rights and freedoms, although he would have you believe you would be healthier as a result. 0bama admits attending socialist conferences and reading Marxist literature. 0bama’s childhood mentor, Frank Marshall Davis, was a prominent member of the Communist Party USA and an acknowledged Stalinist agent. 0bama held receptions at the home of, and served on boards with, another mentor who has had an indelible influence on his world view: William Ayers along with his wife Bernardine Dohrn. Both were Marxist terrorists. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/46 "2012-09-14T04:21:01Z")
So Illinois and New York and California have 104 electoral votes. Add Washington and Oregon and that’s 123. Add Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delware, and Vermont and you have 158, meaning that’s 380 left for Romney. I’ve picked those smaller states because all of them went for Obama by 20+ points in 2008, and many by 30 and 40 points. If you think Romney is getting 400 EVs, you think he’s winning a few of those states. I haven’t even bothered adding the states I mentioned earlier (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) that Romney’s campaign doesn’t expect to win and I left out some other large states that were close only compared to these states (he won Minnesota by 12 points and Nevada by 16). If you think Romney is getting 400 electoral votes (or Obama for that matter), you are predicting some really weird stuff that has no basis at all in polling data or recent political history. > [@moonshot925](#): > > Well, for me, its very simple and clear to me. All you have to do is look at the policies Barack 0bama supports. Right: you certainly can’t come to these conclusions based on any facts, so you have to assume most people think he’s a Communist even though about half the voting public says they plan to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/47 "2012-09-14T04:26:54Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Even if you think Romney’s going to win and the people here can’t see it, there really is not a poll anywhere that suggests he’ll win by a landslide. Particularly if you look at the state level it’s hard to see how a really lopsided win would happen. Romney’s already giving up on some states that he’d been hoping to swing his way, like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. Which doesn’t mean he can’t win or that he’s giving up, but if he’s not winning states like that - nevermind that he’s giving up on them two months before the election - it’s hard to see how he makes his way to an overwhelming blowout. Moreover, we haven’t seen a landslide like Reagan - Carter since, well, Reagan - Carter. Given the social and political makeup of the country today, I doubt such a thing is possible. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/48 "2012-09-14T04:28:01Z")
“You do not understand the level of dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies around the country. In your insular, poll-driven microcosm of liberal elitism, you have lost the bigger picture.” How exactly did you arrive at this special knowlege? Did you drive around the country and talk with thousands of Americans? Found it sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall’s front porch?I gotta know how you know this, oh great seer! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/49 "2012-09-14T04:37:56Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > 0bama’s childhood mentor, Frank Marshall Davis, was a prominent member of the Communist Party USA and an acknowledged Stalinist agent. [Wait, it gets better](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=652186) . . . ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/50 "2012-09-14T04:38:20Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Well, for me, its very simple and clear to me. All you have to do is look at the policies Barack 0bama supports. I would consider 0bama to be more of a Neo-Marxist, in that he may not do all the things a traditional marxist would do, however, he still supports the main foundations under which marxism is built which is greater government control, more regulations and the destruction of property of rights and freedoms, although he would have you believe you would be healthier as a result. > > 0bama admits attending socialist conferences and reading Marxist literature. > > 0bama’s childhood mentor, Frank Marshall Davis, was a prominent member of the Communist Party USA and an acknowledged Stalinist agent. > > 0bama held receptions at the home of, and served on boards with, another mentor who has had an indelible influence on his world view: William Ayers along with his wife Bernardine Dohrn. Both were Marxist terrorists. Feh, guys like Roger Williams tried to say that Obama is a socialist, only to find that his pants are on fire. > **[Roger Williams says Obama is a socialist](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2012/jun/08/roger-williams/roger-williams-says-obama-socialist/)** > > U.S. House hopeful Roger Williams, the former Texas secretary of state, considers President Barack Obama anti-business a > [@](#): > > “Socialism means public ownership of the means of production. Obama does not believe this. Therefore he is not a socialist,” conservative economist Bruce Bartlett told PolitiFact in an e-mail. “Although it is true that the federal government did come to own some private businesses as a consequence of bailout policies initiated by the George W. Bush administration such as TARP, the Obama administration sold many of them – such as its shares in GM – as quickly as feasible. A true socialist would have held on to them.” > > Dan Mitchell, a scholar on fiscal policy at the libertarian Cato Institute, says there are other words for Obama’s expansion of government (he thinks “fascism” is a fair term or perhaps statist), but that it’s not accurate to call it socialism. > > Daniel N. Shaviro, professor of taxation at New York University Law School, said “it is a lie” to say Obama is a socialist. “If he is a socialist, so were Eisenhower and Bush Sr.” > > Our ruling > > Republicans and Democrats frequently diverge over tax policy, economics and the role of government. Certain Obama policies may have expanded government. Some perceive the health care law as government asserting more control over health care. But we don’t see how that’s fodder for Obama being a socialist. > > Indeed, not only is there no case for Obama being a socialist, it’s a preposterous sally. We’re snatching the matches – Pants on Fire! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/51 "2012-09-14T04:40:20Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > In your insular, poll-driven . . . You do realize that those are practically antonyms, don’t you? ---
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/52 "2012-09-14T05:04:03Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > 0bama’s childhood mentor, Frank Marshall Davis, was a prominent member of the Communist Party USA … Don’t forget that he also wrote _Sex Rebel: Black_, a porn novel. He was a very busy guy. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/53 "2012-09-14T05:24:42Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Right: you certainly can’t come to these conclusions based on any facts, so you have to assume most people think he’s a Communist even though about half the voting public says they plan to vote for him. Of course he’s a Communist. He would allow the top marginal income tax rate to rise back up to 39.6%, which is a core belief of Marxism. > [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Found it sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall’s front porch? Oh, that takes me back. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/54 "2012-09-14T05:39:00Z")
There is a name for people who think that all the polls are wrong: losers. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/55 "2012-09-14T05:39:52Z")
Although the OP didn’t predict 400+, I would like to ask him the same question asked of another poster here: exactly what states he thinks Romney would take to make it a “landslide.” ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/56 "2012-09-14T06:29:02Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Romney’s already giving up on some states that he’d been hoping to swing his way, like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. Interesting. Romney is giving up in a state (Wisconsin) in which both he and Obama have shifted money towards. How odd. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/57 "2012-09-14T09:33:04Z")
I love this thread SO MUCH, and I look forward to the eventual Pit thread resolution on November 7th. It’s amazing how people can look at the same information and come to two diametrically opposed conclusions. Amazing, confounding, and damn scary. No wonder we can’t get anything done. /My money, if I had any to spare, would be on Moonshot’s, “Zerobama” FTW. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/58 "2012-09-14T09:40:29Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Things are looking worse and worse for Obama. The chickens are coming home to roost. I don’t see a landslide for Romney but I do predict that Obama will be soundly beaten. The Democrats on this board and in the country have been in denial about the situation for a long time. They cannot even conceive that their hero could lose. > > Another story which won’t help matters for the present administration, from [The Independent](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/revealed-inside-story-of-us-envoys-assassination-8135797.html), a liberal newspaper. Where’s the support for your claim? Are all the polls completely wrong? I’m assuming you expect a Reagan vs Carter massive reversal, but Carter was uniquely uninspiring as a leader, and Reagan was uniquely inspiring (though stunningly short on substance.) It’s Obama that comes closest to being this era’s Reagan, with the charisma, confidence, and the personification of some of the culture’s preferred mythology. Romney’s a capable man, and would make a decent president, but he has nothing to offer in competition with Obama’s qualities. Chickens? Roost? You’'ll have to help me on this one, and not with a newspaper that no one in the States reads. What I’ve seen is skilled, competent leadership. Does anyone who’s not already against Obama see thing differently? In Romney’s recent speeches, I hear the sound of a man who’s scared and desperate. His continued gaffes - I fully expect he’ll make more - don’t help at all. He’s entirely lacking in the confidence, the assured, slightly bemused tone that encouraged so many Democrats abandon Carter in 1980. I see no hope of a massive reversal. Perhaps you can point me towards some evidence for your prediction? ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/59 "2012-09-14T10:06:01Z")
Slight hijack, but bettering money is a non-starter on this medium–there’s no practical way to collect if you win, and you’ll feel (I think) obliged to pay up if you lose. Much better (take it from one who’s done it) to bet Straight Dope-related stakes: i.e. “I’ll stop posting for x amount of time if I lose, you’ll stop posting for y amount of time if you lose…” or the like, which can at least be enforced by the merciless mockery a welsher will endure. (Sorry about the term–I mean no disrespect to the fine land of Wales nor to those noble souls who hail from there.) Although I haven’t done this, I think an even better bet would be to have to bear some sort of “tag” for a specified period: i.e., “Totally wrong about the 2012 Presidential Race–and made a fool of myself in the process” or something similar appearing on every post. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/60 "2012-09-14T10:23:40Z")
Sorry–“bettering” = “betting” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=4)