# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/61 "2012-09-14T10:26:28Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Groucho, maybe. More likely Harpo, but Chico is _right_ out. Why is there never any love for Zeppo? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/62 "2012-09-14T11:42:35Z")
What I find remarkable in all the posts predicting a Romney win are these common factors: 1- Vitriol against Obama 2- Not one word in support of Romney’s character 3- Not one word in support of Romney’s policies You can’t beat someone with nobody. That’s what you’re trying to do. Why did Obama get a convention bounce and Romney didn’t? All the Republican speakers pretty much followed the three points above. The keynote speaker, Christie’s, speech went “Me! Me! Me! Me! Oh, yeah, vote for what’s his name.” There is simply no love for Romney even in his own party. Conversely, the Democrats actually like their candidate. So you think you’re going to win the election because the economy sucks, even though housing values are beginning to recover, unemployment is slowly going down, and everyone’s 401(k) is beginning to do very well. Now, when foreign policy is re-emerging as an issue, your man has proven himself to be dangerously inept and clumsy. Here’s what’s going to happen: Romney is going to get his ass handed to him. The very next day, all of the anti-Obama zealots are going to forget that Romney ever existed. The depth of his defeat will be so great that the disgraced Romney will never again enter the political arena, and that’s a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/63 "2012-09-14T11:50:52Z")
I think one or two of these folks might be serious! I suppose when you favor a party not due to any principles, or policies, or strong leadership at the end of the day all you have is the team jersey and a bucket of blind faith. Rage on boys. Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage against the dying of the right. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/64 "2012-09-14T12:06:15Z")
Weirdly, the OP’s confidence is not shared by right-wing pundits, who mostly seem to be grimacing as the stench of impending defeat grows (perspective of a regular Wall St. Journal reader). For everyone who sees Obama as a failure and a demagogue, there’s at least one other voter who perceives Romney as an unprincipled foot-in-mouth empty suit. I suspect Romney falls short in the popular vote by a few percent, and the Electoral College gap will be considerably greater. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/65 "2012-09-14T12:10:12Z")
I am so looking forward to the “2012 Presidential Election Schadenfreude Thread” on November 7th! ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/66 "2012-09-14T12:12:38Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What I find remarkable in all the posts predicting a Romney win are these common factors: > 1- Vitriol against Obama > 2- Not one word in support of Romney’s character > 3- Not one word in support of Romney’s policies > > You can’t beat someone with nobody. That’s what you’re trying to do. Why did Obama get a convention bounce and Romney didn’t? All the Republican speakers pretty much followed the three points above. The keynote speaker, Christie’s, speech went “Me! Me! Me! Me! Oh, yeah, vote for what’s his name.” There is simply no love for Romney even in his own party. Conversely, the Democrats actually like their candidate. > > So you think you’re going to win the election because the economy sucks, even though housing values are beginning to recover, unemployment is slowly going down, and everyone’s 401(k) is beginning to do very well. Now, when foreign policy is re-emerging as an issue, your man has proven himself to be dangerously inept and clumsy. > > Here’s what’s going to happen: Romney is going to get his ass handed to him. The very next day, all of the anti-Obama zealots are going to forget that Romney ever existed. The depth of his defeat will be so great that the disgraced Romney will never again enter the political arena, and that’s a good thing. Makes sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/67 "2012-09-14T12:14:24Z")
Romney’s losing ground. > **[Poll: Romney losing ground in swing states - Washington Times](https://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/sep/14/poll-romney-losing-ground-swing-states/)** > > President Obama is building his lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, according to polls released Thursday. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/68 "2012-09-14T12:31:26Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Interesting. Romney is giving up in a state (Wisconsin) in which both he and Obama have shifted money towards. How odd. I’ve found reports that he’s giving up on Wisconsin and now I see other articles saying both campaigns are buying ads in the state. The ad-buying articles are more recent, so you may be right. Coincidentally NY+California+Illinois+Michigan+Pennsylvania = 140 EVs, which would already rule out the 400-EV mark without all the smaller states I mentioned earlier. ---
**Author:** ![CandidGamera](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/candidgamera/32/2878_2.png) [@CandidGamera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CandidGamera)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/69 "2012-09-14T12:59:09Z")
I would love to see these folks predicting a Romney landslide put their SDMB posting privileges where their mouths are : If you’re wrong, leave and don’t come back. ---
**Author:** ![stpauler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@stpauler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stpauler)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/70 "2012-09-14T13:00:49Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > 538, Nate Silver, Vegas odds, whatever do not matter. Is this about how facts don’t matter again? That’s such a disturbing conservative meme. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/71 "2012-09-14T13:02:50Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > Moreover, we haven’t seen a landslide like Reagan - Carter since, well, Reagan - Carter. Reagan-Mondale, four years later, was a much more emphatic landslide. Mondale won just 13 electoral votes (as Dennis Miller cracked, “I didn’t even run, and I almost tied him”) and beat Mondale by 18% in the popular vote, about twice his margin over Carter. In EVs it was the most ever won, and was the greatest popular vote landslide since the 1972 massacre. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/72 "2012-09-14T13:08:05Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’ve found reports that he’s giving up on Wisconsin and now I see other articles saying both campaigns are buying ads in the state. The ad-buying articles are more recent, so you may be right. Coincidentally NY+California+Illinois+Michigan+Pennsylvania = 140 EVs, which would already rule out the 400-EV mark without all the smaller states I mentioned earlier. Just after the convention, Romney bought a bunch of ads in swing-states, and didn’t buy any in Wisconsin. So there was a perception he was writing off the state. But he’s since bought ads there, so apparently he still thinks its winnable (and given the fact that he’s sitting on more money then he can probably productively spend in the next two months, it would be kind of dumb of him not to put some in Wisconsin). Anyhoo, if the OP (or **moonshot** ) really believes what he’s saying, he should prove it by putting some money on it. Otherwise, I’m pretty sceptical that even they really believe Romney will really take more then 300 (or 400!) electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/73 "2012-09-14T13:21:54Z")
Obama is up by 7 points in Ohio, 5 in Pennsylvania, 5 in Florida, 5 in Virginia. Virginia! Romney cannot afford to lose even half of those states and win the election. Frankly losing just Florida and Ohio and winning the election is almost unthinkable. Romney can still win, but the poll numbers are going in the wrong direction for him. And in any case, neither candidate will win in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/74 "2012-09-14T13:38:22Z")
[Behold the future, Romney supporters.](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=yIu) Admittedly this represents a likely ceiling for Obama, but I don’t see 79 EVs on my map that Romney could flip from blue to red. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/75 "2012-09-14T13:55:58Z")
> [@Belowjob2.0](#): > > I’m assuming you expect a Reagan vs Carter massive reversal . . . What reversal? Was Carter consistently beating Reagan in the polls through September? (Serious question, my memories of the 1980 election are hazy.) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/76 "2012-09-14T13:56:04Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Behold the future, Romney supporters.](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=yIu) > > Admittedly this represents a likely ceiling for Obama, but I don’t see 79 EVs on my map that Romney could flip from blue to red. I don’t see Obama taking NC. Otherwise that looks pretty realistic. The rpoblem for Romney is that the two other states Obama could lose are Florida and Virginia… but even if he loses them, and NC, Obama wins 290-248. And if he then lost Ohio, he’s STILL win, 272-266. To come up with a Romeny victory you need Obama to lose Virgnia, Ohio, and Florida, plsu at least one other state he’s currently winning, like Iowa or Colorado. While that is not impossible it’s a hell of an uphill battle. To construt a legitimate LANDSLIDE, say 2/3 of the EVs to Romney, I cannot come up with any realistic scenario. If I flip the aforementioned states plus Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, and what the hell Wisconsin, Romney’s still just at 297. What else can he win, really? Where does one find another 70-80 EVs to make it a landslide? ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/77 "2012-09-14T13:56:05Z")
> [@CandidGamera](#): > > I would love to see these folks predicting a Romney landslide put their SDMB posting privileges where their mouths are : If you’re wrong, leave and don’t come back. Do you really think Moonshot is going to be here after the election? (Slightly shocked to see that the OP has a 1999 join date). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/78 "2012-09-14T13:56:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What reversal? Was Carter consistently beating Reagan in the polls through September? (Serious question, my memories of the 1980 election are hazy.) Carter and Reagan were neck and neck and if anything Carter had a slight edge until the debate, which was just days before the election and which completely reversed the direction of the election. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/79 "2012-09-14T14:08:17Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Reagan crushed Carter 489-49 in 1980 and he crushed Mondale 525-13 in 1984. > > Romney will definitely get over 400. I offer you a bet – if Obama wins, you give me $2 per EV he gets over 269; if Romney wins, I’ll give you $10 per EV he gets over 269. Deal? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/80 "2012-09-14T14:15:47Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I don’t see Obama taking NC. I wouldn’t rule it out if Romney keeps jumping up and down on his own dick, though. Not that it would matter, really, except as an extra dollop of embarrassment for a thoroughly embarrassing GOP campaign. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=5)